COSTA RICA: GUATEMALAN CAMPAIGN LOOKS WEAK FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN JOSE 000488

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2016
TAGS: PREL CS PGOC UNSC
SUBJECT: COSTA RICA: GUATEMALAN CAMPAIGN LOOKS WEAK FOR
NON-PERMANENT UNSC SEAT

REF: STATE 27055

Classified By: DCM Russell Frisbie for reasons 1.4 (b&d)


1. (C) Summary: Costa Rica will support Guatemala's efforts
to win the rotational Latin seat on the UNSC. The Foreign
Minister and Director of Foreign Policy told us separately
that Guatemala needs to campaign more aggressively,
particularly in the Caribbean, and offered to assist. These
officials are pessimistic about Guatemala's chances. End
Summary.


2. (C) Ambassador Langdale discussed reftel points with
Foreign Minister Tovar on March 2, 2006. Tovar confirmed
that Costa Rica will support Guatemala's campaign in the
October elections. Tovar stated that Latin support for
Guatemala was solid "north of Colombia," but lamented what he
called a "weak" campaign on Guatemala's part. Tovar felt
Guatemala was relying too much on the argument that it has
never held a seat on the Security Council, and that this
argument was failing to convince many in the face of
incentives offered by Venezuela. Tovar regretted Ecuador's
withdrawal from the race and wished a stronger candidate,
like Colombia, were available.


3. (C) With the Ambassador looking on, Tovar phoned Costa
Rican UN Permrep Bruno Stagno for a read-out. According to
Tovar, Stagno believes Europe supports Guatemala, but
Venezuela has made good progress in Africa. Venezuela also
has the lead in the Caribbean, according to Tovar. Tovar
said that since the ballot is secret, the Caribbean will not
vote as a block. Tovar added that Costa Rica would be
helpful in peeling a number of Caribbean votes away from
Venezuela.


4. (C) Comparing Guatemala's campaign to Costa Rica's
successful bid for Secretary General of the OAS, Tovar
remarked that it was important for the United States to
maintain a low profile. Cuban and Venezuelan lobbying
against the "U.S. candidate" in the Caribbean had been a key
part of Costa Rica's victory, Tovar said.


5. (C) Polcouns separately discussed reftel demarche with
Ambassador Jose Joaquin Chaverri, Director of Foreign Policy
at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, during a meeting on
February 27. While Chaverri reiterated Costa Rica's support
for Guatemala's candidacy, he expressed doubt that Venezuela
will be denied.


6. (C) Chaverri also stated that Guatemala's road to the UNSC
will necessarily go through CARICOM via Belize.
Since CARICOM includes 14 of the 33 UN votes in GRULAC,
winning support from the Caribbean bloc is essential.
Chaverri thought that without Belizean support before
CARICOM, the bloc will have a convenient excuse to vote for
Venezuela, which has long courted the Caribbean nations.


7. (C) Given Venezuela's well-financed campaign, traditional
support from CARICOM, and stated support from at least 5
additional GRULAC countries, Chaverri rated Guatemala's
chances of defeating Venezuela as very slight. He said that
if Guatemala was really serious, its foreign minister will
need to campaign by traveling to every country in the
hemisphere.
LANGDALE