COSTA RICANS PATIENTLY AWAIT ELECTION RESULTS, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 000359

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV CS
SUBJECT: COSTA RICANS PATIENTLY AWAIT ELECTION RESULTS, BUT
POSSIBILITY OF TROUBLE AHEAD

REF: SAN JOSE 319

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Russell Frisbie for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Although the unofficial preliminary
tabulations of election results show Oscar Arias to have won
the February 5 election by more than 10,000 votes, the
current interim, cumulative total of the official recount
(which eleven days after the election has passed the half-way
point) now shows Otton Solis to be in the lead. We expect
the daily tallies to increase Solis's interim, cumulative
lead over the next week, at which time the advantage will
start to shift back to Arias and end up confirming the 10,000
vote advantage of the former president. Embassy contacts in
the Arias camp are concerned that when Arias overtakes Solis
toward the end of February, there will be protests and
accusations of fraud. Until now, however, the country could
not be more calm with both the church and university rectors
playing a constructive role by expressing their faith in the
"rectitude, independence, and transparency" of the Supreme
Electoral Tribunal (TSE). End Summary.

See-Saw Nature of Partial Results
--------------

2. (C) The manual recount of Costa Rica's February 5
elections has now passed the half-way point and also a
turning point in that Oscar Arias, who had been in the lead
until now, has slipped to second place behind Otton Solis, in
the interim, cumulative total. According to Arias confidant
Luis Diego Escalante, who had breakfast with Ambassador on
February 15, the next several reports of interim, cumulative
totals will show Solis increasing his lead over the next week
or so, reaching an advantage of more than 20,000 votes. When
the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) then begins counting the
last three of the country's seven provinces -- Guanacaste,
Puntarenas, and Limon -- where Arias is strong, the advantage
will start to shift back to Arias. Escalante pointed out
that we already know from unofficial preliminary tabulations
made public shortly after the election that Arias will in the
end win by more than 10,000 votes.

"Inconsistencies and Irregularities"
--------------

3. (C) Solis's representative at the manual recount, Rodrigo
Alberto Carazo, has complained constantly, saying on February
14: "We believe the quality of the manual count has not been
adequate. We therefore formally requested a review of the
ballots of polling places where there was any inconsistency
or irregularity." Epsy Campbell, Solis's running mate for
first vice president, told the press that the TSE is moving
too fast and making mistakes. She stressed that it is not
only a matter of counting ballots but of resolving questions
about misplaced ballots, mismarked ballots, etc. Escalante
believes that when Arias overtakes Solis in the recount
toward the end of February, complaints of "irregularities"
will mount and in the end will become accusations of fraud.
He had also heard about possible Venezuelan involvement in
organizing protests. Kevin Casas, Arias's running mate for
second vice president told poloff February 15 that he
believes the labor unions, with money from Venezuela, will
organize major anti-Arias rallies before Arias takes office.

Country is Calm
--------------

4. (C) The mood of the country, at least until now, belies
Escalante's and Casas's concerns. Articles about the recount
left the front pages of the country's newspapers several days
ago. There seems to be an unwritten rule, perhaps in
deference to the TSE, that the results of the unofficial
count, conducted by voting officials at the polling places
and then tabulated centrally, are not to be discussed. There
is an air of make-believe suspense, like when watching a
movie after you have already read the book.


5. (C) Jose Thompson, head of the Center for Electoral
Promotion and Assistance (CAPEL),a branch of the
Interamerican Institute for Human Rights (IIDH),told poloff
that the relative calm in the country was primarily
attributable to the TSE's reputation for independence. He
noted, however, that the TSE appears to have been caught by
surprise by the closeness of the election results, and that
their response so far had been inept. TSE President Oscar
Fonseca's initial promises to release official results
quickly resulted in several missed deadlines, undermining the
credibility of the institution. Thompson, who is currently
coordinating election education and monitoring efforts in
nearly half the countries of Latin America, felt that the
TSE's reputation for neutrality and competence was generally

SIPDIS
deserved and that, especially from a regional perspective,
Costa Rica's electoral process was transparent and
trustworthy.

Positive Role of Church and University Rectors
-------------- -

6. (U) The Conference of Catholic Bishops of Costa Rica and
the National Council of Rectors (representing the heads of
the four public universities separately issued statements of
support of the TSE on February 13. The church pronounced the
elections "free and clean" and noted "the praiseworthy work
of the TSE in guaranteeing the independence, transparency,
and neutrality of the electoral process." The university
rectors expressed confidence in "the rectitude, honesty, and
transparency" of the TSE, which is "the cement of our
democracy." On February 14, President Pacheco also expressed
his faith in the TSE. Until now, there has been no serious
public criticism of the TSE's handling of the election and
the recount.

Comment
--------------

7. (C) Those who may want to sow voter mistrust by
undermining the credibility of the TSE face an uphill battle.
The TSE, because it is the ultimate arbiter of elections
from which there can be no appeal, is often referred to as
the fourth branch of government. Created in 1949, the TSE is
credited with ensuring peace in Costa Rica ever since a brief
civil war was fought over the disputed 1948 election results.
Even the suggestion that international observers monitor the
recount is objectionable for many Costa Ricans. Tomas
Duenas, Costa Rican Ambassador to the United States,
defending the honor of the TSE, told us on February 7 that
the work of Costa Rican elections was "of Costa Ricans, by
Costa Ricans, and for Costa Ricans."


8. (C) Costa Rican labor unions, emboldened by Solis's
better-than-expected showing in the election, have said
earlier that "it would be an extremely dangerous provocation"
for the Legislative Assembly to hold hearings on CAFTA-DR
ratification (San Jose 331). Because Arias is a CAFTA-DR
supporter, and Solis is not, Arias's election as president
may also be seen by the unions to be a provocation. So,
while the country is calm for now, it is difficult to predict
what will come in the days and weeks ahead.
LANGDALE