ELECTION RESULTS EMBOLDEN ANTI-CAFTA-DR FORCES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 000331

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

WHA/CEN
WHA FOR WMIELE
WHA/EPSC FOR KURS, LGUMBINER
STATE PASS TO USTR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ETRD ELAB PGOV PREL CS
SUBJECT: ELECTION RESULTS EMBOLDEN ANTI-CAFTA-DR FORCES

REF: SAN JOSE 305

Summary
--------------

1. (U) Public sector labor unions and other opponents of
CAFTA-DR are trying to capitalize on the February 5 election
results to stop treaty ratification in Costa Rica. They
claim that the better-than-expected showing for presidential
candidate Otton Solis, a treaty critic, nullifies the
Legislative Assembly's "political legitimacy" to continue
deliberations on CAFTA-DR. The Assembly's International
Relations Committee chairman decided to suspend action on the
treaty until after the winner of the presidential election is
officially announced, possibly as late as March 17. End
summary.

Spin Zone
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2. (U) Anti-CAFTA-DR forces in Costa Rica are choosing to
read the results of the presidential election as a victory.
Their candidate, Otton Solis, did much better than anyone had
expected and virtually tied Oscar Arias, a treaty advocate,
with 40 percent of the vote. Solis's vice presidential
candidate Epsy Campbell said after the election: "The future
of CAFTA-DR will never be the same. This will give impetus
to a process of dialogue involving all sectors seeking
renegotiation (of the treaty)." Labor union leader Albino
Vargas crowed that the election was "a deafening defeat of
the neoliberal oligarchy supporting CAFTA-DR."

Threats of Street Demonstrations
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3. (U) On February 8, an anti-CAFTA-DR coalition of public
sector labor union leaders, led by Vargas, plus rice growers
and small farmers (representing a small minority of the
agricultural sector) wrote a letter to the members of the
Legislative Assembly saying that the Assembly had "lost
political legitimacy to continue with the ratification
process of CAFTA-DR." They also warned that if the Assembly
were to continue to hold hearings on CAFTA-DR, "it would be
an extremely dangerous provocation destabilizing the country
through a street confrontation that will be more than fiery."

Skittish Reaction
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4. (U) Rolando Lacle, chairman of the Legislative Assembly's
International Affairs and Trade committee, where CAFTA-DR
hearings were scheduled to recommence this week, announced on
February 9: "We have to wait for an electoral result to know
how the president-elect wants to handle this matter." It is
therefore possible that the committee will suspend action on
CAFTA-DR until March 17. Lacle was supported in his decision
by the anti-CAFTA-DR members of the committee and by
President Pacheco who intimated that treaty ratification is
best left to the incoming Assembly, which takes office on May

1.

PAC-Labor Union Pact
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5. (SBU) Meanwhile, Otton Solis is holding a series of
meetings with some of the 200 "leaders of social and
productive organizations" with whom he and his Citizens'
Action Party (PAC) entered into a "Social Pact for the Mother
Country" on the eve of the election. The pact commits the
signatories to "negotiate a new free trade agreement with the
United States," to "defend the Costa Rican Electricity
Institute (ICE)," whose monopoly status would be affected by
CAFTA-DR, and to "strengthen our food sovereignty" (read
restrict rice imports),among other things. Solis told the
press, whether as president or as leader of the opposition,
he will cooperate closely with "civil society" (read public
sector labor unions).

Comment
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6. (SBU) CAFTA-DR was not debated in any significant way
during the election campaign and was not the reason for the
close vote between Arias and Solis (see reftel). Further, to
say that the 40 percent of voters who supported Solis are
against CAFTA-DR is not supported by polling data. According
to a University of Costa Rica poll conducted in late
November, more Solis supporters think CAFTA-DR is good for
Costa Rica (43.7 percent) than think it is bad (34.5
percent). (Note: For Arias supporters, the percentages are
71.3 and 11.2, respectively.)


7. (SBU) Time and again during the Pacheco administration the
public sector labor unions have threatened, and Pacheco and
his party members (like Rolando Lacle) have backed down.
Nearly two thirds of the current Legislative Assembly and
about the same number in the newly elected Legislative
Assembly support CAFTA-DR. Opponents of the treaty know that
a vote would not go their way, so their strategy is to delay
any legislative action on the treaty as long as possible,
until, finally, the clock runs out. If CAFTA-DR is killed in
Costa Rica, it will not be a climactic event but a death from
an endless succession of delays.
LANGDALE