VOTER DISAFFECTION WITH POLITICAL CLASS LEADS TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 000305

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV CS
SUBJECT: VOTER DISAFFECTION WITH POLITICAL CLASS LEADS TO
TIGHT PRESIDENTIAL RACE

REF: A. SAN JOSE 283


B. SAN JOSE 270

Summary
--------------

1. (SBU) Although the two leading candidates for president
have clearly defined and well known positions on CAFTA-DR --
Oscar Arias is for, and Otton Solis against -- treaty
ratification was not the key issue in the election or the
cause for Solis's higher-than-expected showing in the
presidential vote. Rather voters were moved in one direction
or another depending on their attitude toward the traditional
political class, which Arias epitomizes, and their feeling
about Arias himself, whom many regard as imperious and far
removed from the reality of most Costa Ricans. In the end,
these negatives for Arias nearly outweighed his stature,
experience, ability, money, and strong party organization.
End summary.


2. (SBU) Polls leading up to the February 5 election showed
leftist candidate Otton Solis closing in on centrist
frontrunner Oscar Arias, but with Arias maintaining a very
comfortable lead of 11-19 percent (ref B). The result,
however, was quite different -- a virtual tie, with Arias
perhaps edging out Solis by less than one half of one percent
(ref A). Political commentators are now trying to sort out
the reasons why an upstart like Otton Solis with little money
and not much of an organization did so well against the
greatest political force in the country, the National
Liberation Party (PLN),and its most illustrious
representative, former president and Nobel laureate Oscar
Arias.

Solis -- Capitalizing on Disaffection
--------------

3. (SBU) Solis created his Citizens' Action Party (PAC) in
2000 as an anti-corruption, anti-politics-as-usual,
anti-traditional-party party and, in PAC's first electoral
venture (in 2002),won 14 seats in the 57-member Legislative
Assembly and 26 percent of the presidential vote. This
result for a newly minted party was nothing less than
stunning. Because neither the PLN presidential candidate nor
the candidate of the Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC),the
other traditional party in what until that moment had been
essentially a two-party political system, won 40 percent of
the vote, Solis, who came in third, forced the first-ever
runoff election between the two traditional party candidates,
with PUSC candidate Abel Pacheco ultimately winning.


4. (SBU) Solis's strength then, as now, came from the urban,
educated classes who felt that the PLN and the PUSC which had
existed in one form or another for over 50 years, were closed
clubs where favors were traded. The traditional parties,
Solis supporters believed, existed for the benefit of their
own members, not for the benefit of the country as a whole.


5. (SBU) This disaffection was greatly heightened during the
four years of the Pacheco administration (2002-06). In late
2004, two former PUSC presidents -- Rafael Angel Calderon
(1990-94) and Miguel Angel Rodriguez (1998-02) -- were
arrested for taking alleged kickbacks from private companies
which had been granted public concessions. Former PLN
president Jose Maria Figueres (1994-98) is also widely
believed to have received a kickback, USD 900,000 from French
telecom company Alcatel, though Figueres claims the money was
a legitimate fee. (Note: Arias, who originally distanced
himself from Figueres, inexplicably and unwisely seemed to
defend him of late.) President Pacheco, who had received
illegal campaign contributions in 2002, is not suspected of
having enriched himself illegally or of having committed any
prosecutable corrupt acts; however, polls show that Costa
Ricans believe him to be the worst president the country has
had since Rodrigo Carazo (1978-82). Because of the actions
of Calderon, Rodriguez, and Pacheco, PUSC went into the
election as an almost completely discredited party. PLN was
also tainted, and for many Costa Ricans who are not political
insiders PUSC and PLN are flip sides of the same coin.


6. (SBU) Solis ran for president in 2006, like in 2002, as
the "anti" candidate. He was against CAFTA-DR, against the
opening of state monopolies, but, more than anything, against
the closed, private clubs that were the traditional political
parties. His most attractive quality was being neither PUSC
nor PLN. Former PUSC officials as well as former PUSC
voters, who recognized that PUSC had no chance in the 2006
presidential election, naturally gravitated to PAC. (Note:
According to Arias, former president Calderon, still a PUSC
boss, told his local party leaders throughout the country to
urge followers to support PUSC legislative candidates but to
vote for Solis for president.) Moreover, Solis actively
courted the PUSC supporters; Arias did not.

Arias -- A Man Above The People
--------------

7. (SBU) Arias wanted to be a candidate somehow above the
fray. Although Arias is a committed democrat, he certainly
believed that in his case an election was a mere formality
and inconvenient necessity. He occasionally complained about
attacks against him but did not deign to respond in kind.
When challenged by Solis to a debate, Arias answered through
the press that he was so far ahead of Solis in the polls that
a debate was superfluous, i.e. it could not possibly affect
the election result. Arias did not enjoy appearing in public
except when he could show off his powerful friends like
former Spanish premier Felipe Gonzalez or John Kennedy's
niece. Arias appeared to be a man above the people.

Lack of Debate on CAFTA-DR
--------------

8. (SBU) The presidential election did not hinge on a
differentiation with regard to economic and trade issues, but
on a feeling of alienation from the political class
represented by the traditional political parties and on
voters' attitude towards Oscar Arias, whom people either like
or hate. Although both Arias and Solis have clearly defined
and well known views on CAFTA-DR (Arias pro, and Solis con),
the treaty was scarcely mentioned by either candidate during
the campaign. Arias talked mostly about the need to rebuild
the country's infrastructure and invest in education. Solis
talked about honesty and transparency in government and
consistently and aggressively attacked Arias.


9. (SBU) The better measure of the country ideologically is
the legislative election. The ballot for Legislative
Assembly contains long party lists, and voters make their
decision based on party affiliations and ideological
inclinations, not on personalities of the day. So while
Arias and Solis virtually tied for president at 40 percent
each, PLN in the Assembly got 36.4 percent of the vote
compared with PAC's 25.8 percent. The Assembly, far more
than the outcome in the presidential race, represents the
panoply of political loyalties in Costa Rica and will thus
have members from eight different parties and a majority in
favor of free trade.
LANGDALE