ARIAS LIKELY TO WIN PRESIDENCY, BUT WITHOUT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 000193

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV CS
SUBJECT: ARIAS LIKELY TO WIN PRESIDENCY, BUT WITHOUT
MAJORITY IN THE LEGISLATURE

REF: SAN JOSE 180

Summary
--------------

1. (U) Reputable polls conducted over the last six months
show Oscar Arias, who was president 1986-90, with a
consistent and commanding lead to be reelected president on
February 5. Polls taken in late January show Arias,
considered a centrist candidate, to have the support of 45-49
percent of the voters against 21-24 percent for leftist
candidate Otton Solis and 14-15 percent for rightist
candidate Otto Guevara, Arias's closest rivals. For the
57-member unicameral Legislative Assembly, however, polling
suggests that Arias's National Liberation Party (PLN) will
win less than a majority at 24 members (deputies). Solis's
Citizens' Action Party (PAC) will be the main opposition with
13 deputies, and Guevara's Libertarian Movement (ML) is
expected to win 8 seats. The governing party of the last 8
years, the Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC),may win only
4 seats because of voters' disgust with the poor record of
the Pacheco administration and corruption scandals affecting
two past presidents elected under the PUSC banner. The
remaining 8 seats in the Assembly are expected to be divided
between 5 minor parties. Though the fragmentation of the
Assembly appears to be a recipe for gridlock, we expect Arias
to be much more adept at ad hoc coalition-building than
Pacheco has been. End summary.

A Ho-Hum Election
--------------

2. (U) Since March 2004, when Oscar Arias announced his
intention to run again for the presidency, he has had
frontrunner status. Various polls conducted since August
2005 show Arias's support at 45 to 50 percent against 14 to
24 percent for his closest rival, Otton Solis. This led
President Pacheco to state the obvious at his regular Tuesday
press conference on January 24: "If Don Oscar has about 50
percent, as the polls seem to indicate, and the one who
follows has half of that, I don't think there is much of a
contest." Predictably, there were howls of protest from all
of the candidates except Arias, claiming that Pacheco was
taking sides or discouraging voters from going to the polls.
(Note: Costa Rica's electoral code prohibits the president
and other high-level officials from "using the authority or
influence of their positions to the benefit of political
parties," i.e., they cannot participate in political
campaigns.)


3. (U) The strategy of Arias's opponents is to force a
runoff election which is required under the constitution if
no candidate obtains 40 percent of the vote. The problem
they have is that all the polls show Arias to be comfortably
above that bar, and, even if he failed in the first round on
February 5, it is difficult to conceive of a scenario in
which he would lose in the second round, which would take
place, if necessary, on April 2.

Three-Way Presidential Race
--------------

4. (U) Polling by different companies and at different times
has been remarkably consistent and unchanging. There are a
total of 14 presidential candidates on the ballot, but only
three of them have significant voter support. The two most
recent polls (Demoscopia and CID-Gallup),both conducted in
the second half of January, show Arias, a centrist candidate,
with 45 to 49 percent. Arias's principal rivals, Otton
Solis, a leftist, and Otto Guevara, a rightist, were both
candidates for president in 2002. The polls for this
election show Solis with 21 to 24 percent support, slightly
down from the 26 percent of the votes he won in 2002.
Guevara now has 14 to 15 percent support, a dramatic
improvement over the 2 percent of the votes he got four years
ago. None of the other candidates rates higher than 6
percent. (Note: The above polling figures are percentages
of those voters who are decided; about 25 percent of
registered voters are still undecided.)

Nine-Way Legislative Race
--------------

5. (U) The more interesting race is for the unicameral
Legislative Assembly, all of whose 57 members (deputies) turn
over, as the constitution does not permit their serving
consecutive terms. According to the latest poll on party
preferences for the Assembly (one cannot run as an
independent),nine different parties could end up with seats.
Arias's National Liberation Party (PLN) is expected to have
24 deputies in the new Assembly, up from the 17 elected in

2002. Solis's Citizens' Action Party (PAC),according to the
poll, will have 13 deputies, down by one from 2002. The
Libertarian Movement (ML) of Otto Guevara could elect 8
deputies, up by two from 2002. The biggest story in this
election is the expected collapse of the governing party of
the last eight years and the party of three of Costa Rica's
last four presidents, the Social Christian Unity Party
(PUSC). In 2002 PUSC won 19 seats, making it the largest
party in the current Assembly. The party has practically
disintegrated in the last four years due to corruption
scandals affecting PUSC presidents Rafael Angel Calderon
(1990-94) and Miguel Angel Rodriguez (1998-02) and what is
generally regarded as the abysmal performance of President
Pacheco, who is also from PUSC. As a result of all of this,
the latest polls show PUSC winning only 4 seats in the next
Assembly and its presidential candidate, Ricardo Toledo, with
only 3 to 6 percent of the vote. Five minor parties are
expected to win the remaining 8 seats in the Assembly.

Turnout
--------------

6. (U) A surprising result of both January polls in that
almost 80 percent of those surveyed said they intended to
vote. If all who intend to vote actually do vote, there will
be a substantial improvement over the 60 percent voter
turnout in 2002. About 77 percent of those who intend to
vote will vote for the same party for president and
legislature. The Demoscopia poll showed that if those who do
not now intend to vote and those who are still undecided do
in fact vote on February 5, their votes will be distributed
roughly proportionally among the parties supported by the
decided voters. Thus the size of the turnout is not expected
to affect the election results. What is not accounted for in
the polls, however, is the get-out-the-vote capability of the
different parties on election day. PLN has the best
organization and financing and may substantially boost its
vote by providing transportation to citizens otherwise
confined to their homes.

The Campaign
--------------

7. (U) The platforms of the main candidates have been
notably lacking in ideology and discussions of "big issues."
Rather, the focus has been on bread-and-butter issues that
confront average voters every day, e.g. the poor condition of
the roads, increasing crime, unemployment, etc. CAFTA-DR has
been in the background. However, the polls show a strong
correlation between support for CAFTA-DR and support for PLN,
ML, and PUSC. Those who oppose CAFTA-DR tend to support PAC
and Otton Solis, who has been saying that CAFTA-DR must be
renegotiated.

Comment
--------------

8. (SBU) Oscar Arias, Costa Rica's probable next president,
even if he doesn't get 50 percent of the vote, will be
elected with what will be considered here to be a strong
mandate. He, like President Pacheco, however, will have to
deal with a fragmented legislature with no majority party.
In the Pacheco Administration, that fragmentation combined
with Pacheco's very weak leadership abilities resulted in
gridlock, the worst example of which is Pacheco's fiscal
reform package, introduced shortly after he took office and
still being debated almost four years later.


9. (SBU) Arias is very different from Pacheco, and Costa
Ricans will not tolerate another four years of do-nothing
government. Although Costa Rica has no tradition of formal
and permanent coalitions between political parties (up until
2002 this being essentially a two-party political system),
Arias has indicated he will build ad hoc coalitions around
particular issues. For example, the PLN, ML, and PUSC could
join together in support of CAFTA-DR, and PAC and PUSC could
support the PLN's plans to increase education spending. What
is clear is that Arias will work harder on his legislative
agenda than Pacheco has, and we expect more will be
accomplished.
LANGDALE