OPPOSITION TESTS LIMITS OF PRESIDENTIAL POWER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 000330

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM KMPI YM DOMESTIC POLITICS
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION TESTS LIMITS OF PRESIDENTIAL POWER

REF: 2005 SANAA 2766

Classified By: DCM Nabeel Khoury for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Parliament is preparing for its next session
with a highly anticipated leadership race. Sheikh Abdullah
al-Ahmar is widely expected to win re-election as Speaker,
but reformers are looking to defeat President Saleh's
candidates for the Deputy positions. Such a rebellion could
raise the legislature's profile and increase competition in
the Yemeni political scene. Hamid al-Ahmar, the Speaker's
son, says calls for legislative independence are premature,
but the opposition parties are serious about running a
candidate in this year's presidential race. It remains to be
seen if these challenges will materialize, but many MPs and
opposition figures are increasingly willing to test the
limits of Saleh's power and to discuss his eventual
replacement. END SUMMARY.

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Parliament Steps up to the Plate...
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2. (C) Parliament is set to meet for the first session of
2006, and its first order of business will be electing new
leadership. In its last session, Parliament took the
unprecedented step of overriding a presidential veto to pass
new by-laws. Some observers suggest that President Saleh may
have engineered the vote himself in a comlicated attempt to
dilute the Speaker's influence. Nevertheless, the new
by-laws clearly increase legislative powers, including
election of the Speaker and the three Deputy Speakers who
together form the Presidium. (NOTE: The Presidium has broad
powers in deciding which laws are debated and what demands
are made of the executive. END NOTE). Saadaldin Talib,
parliamentary advisor for the National Democratic Institute
(NDI) and former MP, said the by-laws give Parliament more
power than at any other time in its 16-year history. MPs of
all parties supported the by-laws because they included a
generous benefits package -- a legislative maneuver
engineered by reform-minded MPs meeting under the auspices of
NDI's MEPI-funded program.


3. (C) All expectations are that Parliament will re-elect
Sheikh Abdullah, leader of the opposition Islah Party, to
another term as Speaker (reduced by the new by-laws from six
to two years). The ruling General People's Congress (GPC)
has indicated that they will support al-Ahmar for another
term, despite the fact that he represents an opposition
party. This was a clear signal from Saleh, who wanted to
chasten al-Ahmar by shortening the Speaker's term, but retain
him in his position nonetheless. Sheikh Abdullah is thought
to be unhappy about having to retain his post through
competitive elections, having been chosen for his post in
1993 with Saleh's support by unanimous consent. Talib
predicted that the Yemen Socialist Party (YSP) would run an
opposition candidate if only to establish the precedent.
With al-Ahmar undergoing medical treatment in Saudi Arabia,
Parliament has delayed the session by at least one weak
awaiting his return.

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...Will MPs Take a Swing at the President?
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4. (C) The fate of the other three members of the Presidium
is less certain. Most contentious is the re-election of
Yahya al-Rai, generally regarded "President Saleh's man" on
the Presidium. In 2005, MPs were regularly frustrated by
Rai's obstruction of reform legislation and corruption
inquiries. A vote against Rai would be considered a minor
rebellion against presidential authority and a clear
declaration of independence by the legislative branch. Carlo
Binda, head of NDI's parliamentary program, said a change in
leadership would allow Parliament to take a more aggressive
line on issues such as corruption and fiscal
decentralization. Hamid al-Ahmar, the Speaker's son and a
leading figure in Islah, countered that the opposition is not
yet ready for such a stand, and will in all likelihood
re-elect Rai. "Because of their close relationship," said
Hamid, "my father cannot personally allow his supporters to
oppose the President directly. His followers and the
President's want to fight each other, and the leaders spend
much of their time trying to restrain them." (NOTE: The
al-Ahmars head the powerful Hashid tribal confederation. END
NOTE).

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Opposition Considers Presidential Challenge
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5. (C) The real challenge, said Hamid, will come in the
Presidential election and from a new generation of
politicians. The opposition is serious about fielding an
opposition candidate in the 2006 presidential election,
claimed Hamid, who has already submitted a number of
suggestions to the opposition's Joint Meeting Party (JMP) for
consideration. According to Hamid, relations within the JMP
have never been better, and there is more common ground
between the Nasserites, the Yemeni Socialist Party, and the
Islamist Islah party than he ever thought possible. Dr.
Aziz, a high-ranking member of the YSP in Sanaa, confirmed
this assessment. Frustration among political elites, both
inside and outside government, is at an all-time high, said
Hamid. Ninety percent would like to see Saleh gone, he
continued, but don't know who can replace him.

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Ahmar Views the Future in Moderation...
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6. (C) Hamid made clear that such leadership was not going to
come for Sheikh Zindani and the extremist wing of the Islah
party. "Zindani a great man," said Hamid. "One of the most
knowledgable men in Yemen on the ways of Islam. "I love to
sit at his feet and listen to his sermons," said Hamid. "But
the time is not right for such a leader, and most members of
Islah know this. We need someone who has the support of both
the Americans and the Saudis." What we need now, said Hamid,
is someone who can clean up corruption and help bring
development to Yemen. He did not offer specific names of
candidates under consideration, but others have suggested
that it would have to be someone with strong tribal and
financial backing, who did not fear retribution from Saleh.

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...And Probes U.S. Support
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7. (C) Given the control that Saleh and the GPC have over the
electoral system, the opposition has no delusions of winning
an outright victory, explained Hamid. Instead, he is hoping
for a "Ukranian scenario." If we can take 30 to 40 percent
of the vote, said Hamid, we can then claim voter fraud and
ask for international intervention, specifically from the
United States. "We know that your support for Saleh does not
run deep," continued Hamid, "and that backing a corrupt
regime is not in your long-term interest."


8. (C) COMMENT: In many ways, Parliament's plan to re-elect
Sheikh Abdullah is business as usual in Yemen, where the
President and the Sheikh have a long-standing power-sharing
agreement. (Reftel) There are also considerable doubts as to
whether Islah is truly ready to oppose Saleh, or whether the
party is simply looking to improve its bargaining position in
relation to the GPC when it forms the next government. At
the same time, tectonic plates are slowly shifting in Yemeni
politics, with a growing willingness to challenge President
Saleh -- if only on trivial matters. If Parliament rejects
Saleh's candidates for the Presidium, it could usher in a new
era of political competition in Yemen. This has the
potential to spill over into the presidential election, and
could begin the long process of determining Saleh's
successor. END COMMENT.
Krajeski