Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SANAA2466
2006-08-21 10:24:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Sanaa
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: "IF THIS ELECTION WERE TO BE

Tags:  PREL KDEM YE 
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VZCZCXRO5692
RR RUEHDE
DE RUEHYN #2466 2331024
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 211024Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY SANAA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5119
INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 002466 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2011
TAGS: PREL KDEM YE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: "IF THIS ELECTION WERE TO BE
FREE AND FAIR, A BETTER MAN THAN I WOULD BE RUNNING"


Classified By: AMBASSADOR THOMAS C. KRAJESKI, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (
D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 002466

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2011
TAGS: PREL KDEM YE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: "IF THIS ELECTION WERE TO BE
FREE AND FAIR, A BETTER MAN THAN I WOULD BE RUNNING"


Classified By: AMBASSADOR THOMAS C. KRAJESKI, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (
D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Opposition presidential candidate Faisal
bin Shamlan told Ambassador on August 19 that he considers
corruption and poverty to be the most important issues for
this campaign, but regretted that President Saleh refused to
debate him publicly. Asked if the elections would be largely
free and fair, Shamlan responded that if that were going to
be the case, "a much better man than I would be running."
Shamlan said the opposition did not expect the Government to
abide by election laws stipulating equal access to the media,
but advised that "if we get even 10 percent of the time
allotted to the ruling party, we'll be happy." END SUMMARY


2. (C) In his first meeting with the Joint Meeting Party's
(JMP) presidential candidate, Ambassador said he was pleased
to meet with Shamlan and other political actors at any time,
but would not become engaged in a debate about Yemen's
internal issues. Ambassador said he would readily and
publicly discuss U.S.-Yemeni relations, but did not want the
USG or the Embassy to become an election issue. The USG's
most constructive contributions to the election are the local
observers that will be trained by the U.S.-funded National
Democratic Institute, who will be able to give the most
accurate assessment of whether the voting was open and fair,
not only for the presidential election, but for the local
council polls as well.


3. (C) Asked for his assessment of the chances for a free
and fair election, Shamlan said that if anyone expected the
elections to be free and fair, "a much better man than I
would be running." In a truly honest election, Shamlan
asserted, he would win 65 to 70 percent of the vote. If the
elections are "even 40 percent fair," then he would likely
notwin, but the JMP could expect to win control of a
majority of local councils, as ruling party officils have
been warning could happen. Shamlan downlayed the
significance of the local councils, hoever, because they do
not have independent sourcs of funding and the politically
appointed district governor's concurrence is needed for any
counil decision to be enacted.


4. (C) Shamlan statd that corruption and the rising cost of
living or average Yemenis would be the main issues for ths
year's campaign, the first in which an actual challenger to
the president is running. Yemeni ciizens are very worried
about the future, he said because proven oil reserves will
only last anoter 6-7 years, and Yemen derives 70% of its
govermental budget from oil. "Nothing has been done to use
oil money to create an effective non-oil econmy," he said,
and yet the Government each year aks for supplemental
spending authority from the arliament. Since 2001, this
extra spending has mounted to more than USD four billion,
"and yet we still have two million unemployed." Much of the
money has been siphoned off through corruption, h said, "and
while the President, Prime Minister,and Speaker of
Parliament all talk about fightin corruption, no one has
ever been brought to tria."


5. (C) Given the fact that 75 percent of Yeen's population
is scattered in rural villages, ass media will be crucial to
communicating his mssage to the people, Shamlan emphasized.
Accordig to Shamlan, about half of Yemenis have access to
non-Yemeni stations such as al-Jazeera, al-Hurra,al-Arabiya,
and al-Mustaqila, while the other haf relies on the
government-owned broadcast media. Jazeera and Arabiya have
so far been reluctant to interview him, he claimed, because
the Government has insisted that the interviews be taped in a
studio, not broadcast live -- something both organizations
are reluctant to do. Asked if he expected the Government to
abide by the election law and the June agreement of
principles between the JMP and the ruling party, which call
for equal access to government-owned media, Shamlan
responded, "Of course not." He claimed that "even if we get
10 percent of the time" allotted to the ruling party, he will
be satisfied.


6. (C) COMMENT: Shamlan is fighting an uphill battle and he
knows it. We believe that his estimation of his share of the
vote in a clean election are seriously overblown, but not the
belief that the JMP may sweep the local council elections --
a fear expressed even by ruling party members. Shamlan is
not a member of either of the major parties that comprise the
JMP, so it is not surprising that he would have little
interest in the local council elections, but post continues
to view those elections as an equally important measure of
democratic progress as fair and open presidential voting.
Post will provide assessments of local council election
preparations via septels.
Krajeski