ITALY'S CENTER-LEFT PLANS IRAQ PULLOUT BY END OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000085

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV IT EUN IRAQI FREEDOM ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ITALY'S CENTER-LEFT PLANS IRAQ PULLOUT BY END OF
2006

REF: A) 05 ROME 3179 B) ROME 4064

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald P. Spogli

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Romano Prodi's international affairs adviser and
spokesperson January 10 expressed confidence in a center-left
victory in Italy's elections next April. He said that a
Prodi-led government would announce immediately upon winning
national elections its intent to withdraw from Iraq. Ricardo
Levi told Pol M/C an Italian troop withdrawal would not be
precipitous, like Spain's, but conducted in close
consultation with both allies and the government of Iraq.
Pol M/C noted the need to safeguard Iraq's security and
stability, and for any adjustment of troop levels to be
conditions-based. Levi said there would be no surprises, but
neither would there be an open-ended, conditions-based
arrangement. The center-left coalition would require an
agenda for withdrawal that would be completed within three to
six months of a new government taking office, which Levi said
was likely to occur in the second half of June. He stressed
that a center-left government would remain committed to
Iraq's development, whether through security or NATO
training, economic development, or institution-building.
Regarding possible future commitments of force abroad, Levi
said a sine qua non for the center-left would be EU
coordination. End Summary.


Use of Force Must Be Coordinated in European Context
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2. (U) Following up on center-left leader Romano Prodi's
December meeting with Ambassador (ref b),Pol M/C January 10
called on Ricardo Levi, the opposition chief's longtime
international affairs adviser and spokesperson. Pol FSN
accompanied.


3. (C) Pol M/C asked Levi if a Prodi government would see
the country's various overseas commitments as necessary
investments in regional stability and Italy's own security,
or as overcommitments abroad that should be scaled back.
Levi said the Italian presence was permanent, not a
transitory phenomenon. It had begun before the current
government came to power. But an important difference
between left and right was that a center-left government
would never undertake bilateral military commitments. Any
commitment involving the use of military force would have to
be coordinated in a European context.

Prodi Government Would Confirm Iraq Pullout by End of 2006
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4. (C) On Iraq, Levi said that a Prodi-led government would
confirm immediately after winning national elections, perhaps
even on election day itself, its intent to withdraw from
Iraq. The Prodi adviser said the decision would be carried
out in close consultation with both allies and the government
of Iraq. Pol M/C said that it was in our common interest to
safeguard Iraq's security and stability. Any adjustment of
troop levels should be conditions-based. Levi said there
would be no surprises, a la Spain. But neither would there
be an open-ended, conditions-based arrangement. Italy's
center-left coalition would require an agenda for withdrawal
within three to six months of a new government taking office,
which he predicted would occur in the second half of June. A
center-left government would remain committed to Iraq's
development, whether through security or NATO training,
economic development, or institution-building.

Iran Challenge Requires International Cooperation
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5. (C) Pol M/C raised Iran, noting it was both an important
regional power and a significant challenge to the
international community, whether the issue was President
Ahmadinejad's gratuitous insults to Israel or the nuclear
issue. The Iranians did not respect weakness. It was
esssential to maintain a clear and unified international
message. Levi agreed on the need to coordinate with both the
United States and European allies on Iran. In fact, Prodi
had done so before taking a trip to Iran as prime minister in
1997, making clear to Iranian leaders that he had coordinated
with his US and European colleagues and that whatever they
said he would take back to them all. Italy could help open
up channels to Iran if the conditions were right. Pol M/C
said Italy's voice, because of its trading ties with Iran,
was particularly influential. But it was important to speak
up not only when positive opportunities present themselves,
but when negative things happen, whether it was Ahhadinejad's
statements on Israel or Iranian defiance of the IAEA and
international community on the nuclear front. Levi said that
Prodi had done so, e.g. he had called in the Iranian
ambassador immediately after Ahmadinejad first spoke out, and
had criticized the Iranian leader publicly as well.

Confident of Center-Left Win
--------------


6. (C) On domestic politics, the Prodi adviser expressed
confidence in a center-left victory in April elections, but
acknowledged the recent election law change (switching to
all-proportional system) would likely give the opposition
coalition a smaller working margin than they would have had
previously. One difference with the last Prodi government,
he said, was that the small Reformed Communist party (whose
walkout toppled the last Prodi cabinet) had signed up in
writing this time to the government platform. So all
coalition parties were committed to supporting the platform
for five years. Pol M/C asked if a Prodi government would
try to roll back the new election law. Levi said he doubted
this would be possible because power had now been returned to
the political parties and "even our own" would not want to
change this.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) It is not new news that a center-left coalition would
want to move sooner rather than later towards a troop
drawdown in Iraq. And Levi was quick to add Italy would
remain substantially committed in other ways to helping
Iraq's security, stability, and development. But he was more
explicit than Prodi had been with us earlier in affirming the
center-left intended to immediately reconfirm its intentions
on troop withdrawal if they win. And while he laid out a
notional timeline that could stretch to the end of 2006, and
featured full consultations, he pointedly foreclosed any
open-ended, purely conditions-based agreement. The larger
significance here, however, is that Levi's presentation
portends a Prodi government that will likely shift toward the
comfort and cover of EU consensus, and away from the more
independent, risk-taking decisionmaking style of the
Berlusconi government. End comment.
SPOGLI