ITALY'S UNION COALITION PROGRAM: FAULT LINES ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ROME 000584

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON MARR PARM MOPS ELAB EINV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS

SUBJECT: ITALY'S UNION COALITION PROGRAM: FAULT LINES ON
THE LEFT

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David D. Pearce for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Romano Prodi presented the center-left Union
coalition's 281-page governing program on February 13. As
opposed to establishing a concrete program for the Union
coalition should it win the April 9 national elections, the
document has been viewed by critics from both the right and
the left as an index of the Union's internal disputes. The
Eurocentric foreign policy section is relatively short, heavy
on pacifist language, stresses multilateralism and
""rebalancing"" transatlantic relations, recognizes the
importance of the Middle East, calls for a withdrawal of
Italian troops from Iraq in consultation with the Iraqi
government, and anticipates a re-examination of the
disposition of Italian military facilities. Long on analysis
of Italy's economic and social ills, it is weak on
prescriptions for change. Although the foreign policy
portion is cause for concern, e.g., the near absence of
reference to NATO, the document serves mainly to underscore
the fault lines within the center left itself. END SUMMARY.

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UNITY IN DISCORD
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2. (SBU) Romano Prodi presented the center-left ""Union""
coalition's 281-page governing program on February 13. The
presentation ceremony featured Prodi standing on a stage
together with the leaders of the varied political parties in
Prodi's coalition. The event was meant to highlight
coalition unity and a forward-looking governing program, the
result of months of careful negotiation. Not surprisingly,
the program is a laundry list of general proposals on social,
environmental and labor issues.



3. (C) As opposed to establishing a concrete program for the
Union coalition should it win the April 9 national elections,
the document has been viewed by critics from both the right
and the left as an index of the Union's internal disputes.
The day after its presentation, a major battle broke out over
the absence of language on the controversial Lyon-Turin
high-speed rail (TAV). Communist Renewal and Green Party
leaders said its absence means the project would be canceled
while Prodi assured nervous moderates and business leaders
the project would go forward. Internal bickering has also
occurred over whether the Union should continue PM
Berlusconi's policy toward Israel (Daisy Party) or whether it
should be reversed completely (Italian Communist Party). One
Daisy party official told Poloff not to worry about he termed
""this trash document"" that they were forced to draft with
communists and greens. Poloff noted that they would have to
govern with those same people.


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FOREIGN POLICY
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4. (SBU) The foreign policy section is relatively short,
places Europe at the center of foreign policy, is heavy on
pacifist language, stresses multilateralism, recognizes the
importance of the Middle East, calls for a withdrawal of
Italian troops from Iraq and for reassessing the disposition
of the country's military facilities. Iran is not
specifically mentioned, though the program does refer to the
problem of weapons proliferation. A summary is provided
below:

--European integration: Europe and deepening European
integration is the center-left's ""guiding principle."" The
Union repeatedly describes EU federalism as a strategic goal,
states that Italy's national interests fold into those of
Europe and that it will work for the resumption of the EU's
institutional reform process. It proposes a Europe-wide
referendum in 2009 on the EU Constitution in conjunction with
European Parliamentary elections. It supports the accession
of Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia and underscores the need to
integrate western Balkan countries into Europe in order to
encourage the resolution of lingering conflicts. It favors
accession negotiations for Turkey but points to the need for
Turkey to comply fully with the Copenhagen criteria and to
resolve issues of political and institutional reform, human
rights, and the rights of minorities. NATO receives no
direct mention and notably not in its role as a locus for
transatlantic political consultation.

-- Common EU Foreign, Security, Defense Policies: The
program says a common EU foreign and security policy (CFSP)
and a common EU defense policy (ESDP) are major priorities.
The Union proposes implementing a CFSP immediately by
creating an EU foreign minister, abolishing veto powers on
foreign policy decisions within the EU Council, using
enhanced cooperation as often as possible in decision-making
processes and in conflict prevention and management, and
creating an EU seat in international organizations, such as
the IMF, WB, and UNSC. Italy will implement this policy
during its UNSC rotational presence in 2007 by coordinating
EU policies within the Security Council. The emphasis is on
policy rather than development of military capabilities.
There is no representation of ESDP, however, as competitive
with or replacing the transatlantic Alliance in a military
sense.

--United Nations/International Criminal Court/IAEA: The
Union's second guiding principle is what the platform
characterizes as Italy,s ""vocation for peace"" and is pegged
to article 11 of the Italian Constitution, which rejects war
as a method to resolve international controversies. The
focus is on multilateralism and multipolarism, in particular
regional organizations like the EU. Making the UN stronger
is a priority and Italy can/can relinquish part of its
national sovereignty to the UN. The use of force is allowed
only in the greater context of collective security and for
international police functions, in accordance with Chapter
VII of the UN Charter. In full compliance with article 47 of
its Charter, the UN should create a Military Staff Committee
and a ready alert contingent. Genocide is an attack against
another country and requires self-defense, and the General
Assembly should be given more powers toward this end. The
role of the International Criminal Court should be enhanced.
Efforts must be made for concrete progress toward the
disarmament of nuclear powers, in order to then apply a ""more
effective pressure"" on the new nuclear countries and on those
that have nuclear ambitions. The IAEA must be given more
powers to obtain full NPT compliance.

-- Rebalancing Transatlantic Relations: Italy must work to
enhance the UN system, reform the UN, become again a lead
country in Europe, and ""re-affirm and rebalance transatlantic
relations in order to contribute to international security
and assure peace and justice among nations.""

-- Terrorism: Terrorism is unacceptable and ""unjustifiable.""
The struggle against terrorism must be carried out using
""political methods, the intelligence services, and by
opposing terrorist organizations."" It is necessary to
develop a global strategy that should be articulated thus:
cooperation among intelligence services, control of suspect
financial flows and safe haven countries, development
cooperation agreements with third countries. (Note: There is
no reference to the use of military troops, and some
coalition members distinguish between legitimate insurgency
and terrorism. End Note.)

-- Iraq: The program states that ""the war in Iraq and the
occupation were a serious mistake."" It continues that it
""weakened the UN and undermined multilateral world
governance."" On the future of Italian troops in Iraq, it
states that, ""immediately after parliamentary elections in
April, the Union will ask the Italian parliament to vote for
the withdrawal of Italian troops. Withdrawal would occur
according to a schedule that is based on a timing that is
technically needed for withdrawal and in consultation with
the new Iraqi Government in order to guarantee security.
Withdrawal will be accompanied by a ""strong political
initiative to support.... transition toward democracy in Iraq
and contribute to finding a path for Iraq to attain full
democratic stability and which would give Iraqis full
sovereignty over their country."" (Note: The word used is
""consultation"" and not ""agreement."" The program does not
address the need to consult or coordinate Italy's withdrawal
with any of the other members of the coalition of the willing
that are still in Iraq. The US is never mentioned in the
chapter on Iraq. End note.)

-- Mediterranean: The Union's priority is an active Italian
and EU ""neighborhood policy"" with countries in the
Mediterranean region. ""Italy must work for a peaceful,
stable and democratic Mediterranean"" through special
relations with all and new development policies based on
universal principles and intercultural dialogue. The end
goal is a common Euro- Mediterranean space. Regional
disarmament and denuclearization must be pursued.

-- North-South and Solidarity: The Union proposes to
increase public funds for development assistance programs in
the poorer countries. ""Armed forces must never be used for
humanitarian intervention or development assistance.""

--New Defense Policies: The Union's intent is to (1) work on
European defense and on cooperation between the EU and the
US; (2) reorganize a new and modern defense system; and (3)
focus on human resources. Enhanced/structured EU cooperation
on defense has begun and should proceed rapidly. In order to
address the problems that derive from a unipolar world order,
""we must aim for an autonomous European defense, albeit
linked to the Atlantic Alliance, which is undergoing in-depth
changes."" The Union will propose the need to firmly anchor
Italy,s strategic position in Europe, as a player in
Europe's integration policies, as well as a loyal ally of the
United States. Italy's defense system must be made more
""flexible and integrated at a European level with our
allies.""

--Military Basing: The program cites the changed strategic
situation after the end of the Cold War and the need for
repositioned and modernized, more efficient forces. The
program also anticipates a shift of military facilities and
units toward southern Italy, both closer to threats emanating
from the Mediterranean and to many soldiers' homes in the new
all-volunteer military. This relocation of some military
presence to the south would be a result of a promised
""redefinition of the military burden ('servitu' militare')
borne by our territories, particularly in regard to nuclear
bases."" The program foresees a second National Conference to
examine the issue of the military burden borne by different
Italian regions. (NOTE: This item primarily concerns Italian
national military presence and, apart from La Maddelena, does
not raise questions about U.S.military presence at Italian
bases. The military burden discussed has long been a
controversial issue in Sardinia, which bears a
disproportionate burden in terms of military right-of-way,
training areas, practice ranges, etc. In November 2005, DS
Secretary Piero Fassino publicly promised Sardinian Regional

SIPDIS
President Renato Soru that the center-left would advocate for
shifting military burden to other regions and would call a
national conference on the issue. The only facility in Italy
that might qualify in the public eye as a ""nuclear base"" is
La Maddelena, now scheduled to be closed.

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THE ECONOMY: WHY ITALY IS IN DECLINE
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5. (SBU) In the section ""Why Italy is in decline,"" the Union
details a series of well-known problems with the Italian
economy. The analysis is precise and some of the solutions
track results from the Ambassador's Partnership for Growth.
The program is generally short on specific solutions to these
well-known problems. It generally offers generic solutions
that observers believe will be difficult for a fractured
coalition to implement.


6. (SBU) The Union proposes a renewed industrial policy to
strengthen small companies and shift to more technically
advanced sectors; a reform of public spending, primarily
investments; the strengthening of industrial districts and
their conversion into technology parks; and implementation of
measures aimed at improving competition in all sectors of the
economy. The Union plans to propose a new governance model
for growth and competitiveness--a major reorganization and
coordination between the government, line ministers and the
regions. In particular, the Union proposes the creation of a
new ministry for the real economy that would be in charge of
initiatives of economic competitiveness, support to
companies, energy policy, competition, and
internationalization.

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SOCIAL AND LABOR ISSUES
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7. (SBU) The Union program is highly critical of Berlusconi's
social and labor policies, which it claims have created a
precarious work environment. As a solution, the Union
proposes a laundry list of labor and pension reforms,
family-friendly work policies, education schemes and
immigration reforms. Union groups have criticized the
program as too long and inclusive to be a serious proposal.


COMMENT

8. (C) The Union's proposals for social and economic policy
are too broad and vague to be meaningful, and many of the
proposed labor reforms would increase the deficit and work
against measures designed to increase the efficiency of the
Italian economy. The foreign policy chapters contain some
areas of real concern, especially as regards a potentially
hyper-Eurocentricity and the near absence of any reference to
NATO. While the issue of re-examining the disposition of
military facilities makes no direct mention of NATO or the
US, this will be an issue to watch in the event that the far
left were to emerge with strong influence within a
center-left coalition post-April 9. The language on Italian
troop deployments to Iraq is sufficiently vague to please
both the moderates and extremists within the Union and
contains no real surprises. In brief, the document is a
hodgepodge, and serves best as a guide to the fault lines
within the center left itself. END COMMENT.
SPOGLI