ITALY RECEPTIVE TO A/S SHANNON'S MESSAGE ON LATIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ROME 000427

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL XM HA CU CA IT
SUBJECT: ITALY RECEPTIVE TO A/S SHANNON'S MESSAGE ON LATIN
AMERICA

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David D. Pearce for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. A/S Thomas Shannon February 3 outlined U.S.
policy in the Western Hemisphere for Italian MFA Director
General for the Americas Claudio Bisogniero and encouraged
Italy to be our partner in engaging with Latin America during
this delicate time for the region. Bisogniero was very
receptive to Shannon's message and expressed willingness to
work with the United States, especially on Bolivia.
Bisogniero and Shannon also noted that the United States and
Italy shared a common view of the nuances in Latin American
politics and the need to judge governments by their actions,
not solely their political ideology. Shannon requested
Italy's support for Guatemala's UNSC bid and Bisogniero
responded that Italy was very much inclined to back its
candidacy. End Summary.

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Italy: Relaunching Its Presence in Latin America
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2. (C) Bisogniero noted that Italy is in the process of
relaunching its presence in Latin America in light of strong
economic and cultural ties. He explained that Italy did not
view Latin America in terms of spheres of influence, but
within a multilateral context including the United States,
EU, and other major players. Pointing out that not all
leftist governments in Latin America are alike, Bisogniero
said that the situation cannot simply be termed a shift to
the left. Italy would judge governments by what they do on
issues such as education, economic and social issues,
combating drug trafficking and organized crime, not solely by
their ideology. Bisogniero said that Latin America was
notably absent from the multilateral picture, citing
nonproliferation as an example of a major issue where the
region did not play a role. Spain, Italy, and France are the
biggest players in the EU on Latin America issues, according
to Bisogniero, and Italy is ready to do its part bilaterally
and in the EU.


3. (C) Concurring with Bisogniero's points, A/S Shannon noted
that Italy's focus on multilateral engagement was a healthy
approach. He emphasized that Latin America is going through
an important, delicate phase. Shannon said the United States
was sometimes seen with suspicion and animosity in Latin
America and would need partners from inside and outside of
the region in its efforts. Welcoming Italian and EU
engagement, he explained the United States did not see this
as competition.

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MERCOSUR and Venezuela: Politics or Economics?
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4. (C) Venezuela's entry into the Common Market of the South
(MERCOSUR) was a political decision, Bisogniero observed, and
there would be much work to come to integrate Venezuela into
the group. Given the Andean Community member's
dissatisfaction with that organization, Bisogniero wondered
if MERCOSUR would be the entity to attract the rest of the
region (although Bolivian President Morales had hesitated to
follow Venezuelan President Chavez). With Venezuela's entry,
Bisogniero noted that the new dynamic could see Brazil and
Argentina limiting Venezuela, or Venezuela taking MERCOSUR in
its direction. Shannon remarked that the Venezuelan economy
would be devastated if it opens to Brazilian and Argentine
markets.


5. (C) The question would be whether MERCOSUR would be an
economic or political entity, with Argentina and Brazil
seeing it as a way to control Chavez. Bisogniero agreed that

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other South American countries could be a force to moderate
Chavez. Shannon also noted the difference between Brazil's
view of South American integration, which is modern and
intent on engaging a globalized economy, and Chavez's view,
which is inward looking and designed to create a
counterweight to the United States. Although most countries
seemed to share Brazil's perspective, Shannon observed that
the region still had much to do on economic integration. He
also noted that Morales would not be willing to step out of
the Andean Community alone, and didn't want to walk away from
a potential free trade agreement with the United States.


6. (C) Bisogniero lamented that Brazil had not been helpful
in EU-MERCOSUR negotiations, which Italy was trying to push,
hoping for an agreement by the middle of the year. Shannon
noted that the Brazilian MFA controlled the agenda and it
viewed trade in terms of power and market access, not a way
to increase competitiveness. Both Shannon and Bisogniero
agreed on the need to engage with the business community.


7. (C) Chavez has decided not to have any contact with us,
Shannon said, with energy the only relationship he couldn't
break. The United States would try to be quiet on Chavez,
but highlighted the importance for countries with a
relationship with Venezuela of engaging with civil society.
Bisogniero noted that Italy's relationship with Venezuela was
based on economic ties and the large Italian community.

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GRULAC UNSC Seat: Italy Supports Guatemala
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8. (C) Shannon shared our concerns regarding Venezuela's bid
for the Latin America Group (GRULAC) seat on the UN Security
Council (UNSC),and noted Guatemala's larger UN profile.
Having Venezuela on the UNSC would be a big problem for us,
Shannon argued. He noted Venezuela's recent history of
trying to hijack international organizations for its own
purposes, entering with its own agenda. Pointing to U.S.
domestic concerns about the UN, Shannon said that having
Venezuela on the UNSC would damage our ability to argue
internally that the UN and UNSC are useful institutions. In
contrast to Venezuela, Shannon noted that Guatemala
contributes to UN peacekeeping (recently loosing eight
peacekeepers in the Congo) and has a larger overall
commitment to the UN system. Bisogniero responded that Italy
was very much inclined to support Guatemala's candidacy. He
explained that Italy anticipated holding a UNSC seat during
the same rotation and would not want any of its fellow
members to obstruct proceedings. He noted that Italy has not
made this position public.

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Bolivia: Common Ground on Morales
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9. (C) Morales's recent trip to Cuba, Venezuela, Spain,
France, Belgium, South Africa, China, and Brazil was very
important for the newly elected leader's understanding of
what it means to be the president of Bolivia, according to
Shannon. Citing Morales's wide margin of victory, Shannon
noted that it was necessary to understand and respect what
was happening in Bolivia. He emphasized that we were entering
the relationship without preconceptions and President Bush
had called Morales to say we were prepared to talk.
Morales's message to Shannon had been that he would be
prepared to work with us. However, Shannon noted, the
relationship would not be easy--and would be even harder for
Morales, especially managing his radical supporters. We all
have to be there, Shannon said, and we have to talk to
Morales. He cited Brazil and Argentina's agreement to act as
"chaperones" of the Morales-Chavez relationship as an example.

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10. (C) Noting the wide media coverage of the election,
Bisogniero observed that Morales seemed to have responded
positively to messages from the U.S., EU, and others. He
characterized Morales as pragmatic vs. the
ideologically-driven Chavez and Castro, noting particularly
his restraint in not following Chavez blindly into MERCOSUR.
Since Austria does not have diplomatic representation in La
Paz, Italy will hold the EU Presidency for Bolivia during the
next six months. Bisogniero praised Ambassador Zanini as
skilled and experienced (he has been in La Paz for three
years) and noted that he has been developing contacts in the
new government. Highlighting the good relationship between
our Ambassadors in La Paz and our many common views on
Bolivia, Bisogniero thought it would be possible to work
together more closely in approaching Morales. The EU had
decided to take a wait-and-see approach, according to
Bisogniero, and would reinforce Solana's message.

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Argentina: Reestablishing High-Level Dialogue
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11. (C) Expressing concerns regarding Argentina's IMF payoff,
Bisogniero questioned the sustainability of current economic
growth. Although the issue of Argentine bond restructuring
which affected many Italian pensioners remains a source of
tension in Italy-Argentina relations, Bisogniero noted that
cooperation in other sectors like science and technology
remained good, and Rome was working to reestablish high-level
political dialogue with Buenos Aires. He also indicated that
Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna might visit Rome in late
March. Shannon noted that Argentina had run the Summit of
the Americas for a domestic audience, which had hurt them
internationally. However, during a subsequent visit to
Buenos Aires, Shannon said Kirchner came as close as possible
to apologizing and U.S.-Argentina relations are back on track.

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Nicaragua: Italy Agrees on Need for International Observers
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12. (C) Shannon described the upcoming election in Nicaragua
as an opportunity to change the Ortega-Aleman political
landscape, and emphasized the need for international
observers now to ensure the Electoral Authority is laying the
groundwork for a free and fair election. Removing the
possibility of a U.S. deal with Aleman, Shannon said we could
live with either of the two candidates. Bisogniero responded
that Italy was pushing the EU to send an electoral
commission. (NOTE: At their February 6 Commission on Latin
America (COLAT) meeting, the EU agreed unanimously on the
need for an election observer mission to Nicaragua. The next
step would be to include Nicaragua on the list of priority
countries for monitoring in 2006.)

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Cuba: Human Rights Situation Worse, Sticking to EU Line
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13. (C) The human rights situation in Cuba is unacceptable
and getting worse, Bisogniero said, in spite of the EU policy
opening. Italy would continue to engage in critical dialogue
with the GOC, according to Bisogniero, and would intensify
contact with the opposition, staying within the EU common
position. The MFA has summoned the Cuban charge to protest
the denial of exit visas to the Damas en Blanco and Oswaldo
Paya, both invited by the European Parliament, and will call
in the Ambassador when he arrives. Bisogniero noted that
Austria does not want to put Cuba on the EU agenda before the
policy review in June.


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14. (C) Shannon noted that Castro's succession strategy would
require more repression for it to be successful, and that the
EU and others should not expect to soften the regime through
engagement. He emphasized that the U.S. goal was to open
political space in Cuba and involve the Cuban people, who
should choose the next government, not the security forces.
Bisogniero inquired about the focus of the second Commission
for Assistance to a Free Cuba report. Shannon explained that
it would cover the transition period itself, which was not
discussed in last year's document. He highlighted that a
common approach on the transition, with the EU providing
points of its own, would help reassure the Cuban people that
the international community would be there to support them.
Shannon praised the European invitations to Paya and the
Damas as a positive way to raise their profile both
internationally and in Cuba, and encouraged Italy to keep
engaging with the opposition.

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Haiti: Italy Pushing for Aid, CARICOM Membership
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15. (C) Italy is working within the EU to release 75 million
Euros in aid to Haiti that have been blocked pending
elections. Bisogniero explained that Italy would continue to
push for the aid money and for the inclusion of Haiti in the
Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM) after the
election. He said that Italy saw a need for the UN
Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) to remain until the
end of the summer. Shannon emphasized that the United States
would work with whoever won the election and that the
important thing was to have elections, noting that it would
be difficult for countries contributing to MINUSTAH to
maintain their presence without elections. The GOI was
providing humanitarian assistance to the Dominican
Republic-Haiti border area, according to Bisogniero, seeing
it as an important long-term stability issue.

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Chile, Canada
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16. (C) Italy had been working closely with Chile, which it
saw as a platform for trade with Latin America since had the
best agreement with the EU among the Latin American
countries. Given the timing of the Chilean and Italian
elections, Bisogniero said, Italy might send a deputy
minister or parliament member to represent the GOI at the
inauguration. He observed that Canada's new minority
government might have a tough time. Shannon noted that the
new Harper government would bring a friendlier tone to the
bilateral relationship, but would most likely be careful in
its relations with the United States, working for a
productive relationship without seeming to cave to U.S.
interests.

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Comment
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17. (C) Italy seemed receptive to the message of cooperation
in the region, which ties into MFA efforts to move Latin
America up on the Italian agenda. The GOI appeared
particularly interested in working more closely on Bolivia
issues, and was open to further suggestions on US-EU
cooperation for a Cuba transition agenda.


18. (U) This cable was cleared by A/S Shannon.
SPOGLI