ITALIAN ELECTIONS: PRODI LEADING THE RACE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 000276

SIPDIS


SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ITALIAN ELECTIONS: PRODI LEADING THE RACE,
BERLUSCONI SETTING THE PACE

REF: A. ROME 0239


B. 05 ROME 3996


1. (C) SUMMARY: Recent polls show that PM Silvio
Berlusconi's center-right (CR) coalition has gained on Romano
Prodi's center-left (CL) coalition. Prodi's lead has slipped
from 8 percentage points last summer to 4.5 percentage points
in January. In the last month, Berlusconi has set the tone
of the campaign. Instead of focusing on the economy or
Italy's involvement in Iraq, areas where Berlusconi might be
politically weak, the public debate has centered on
Berlusconi's ubiquitous media presence, the Unipol-Democrats
of the Left financial imbroglio and the date for dissolving
parliament. Berlusconi's recent surge and his ability to
control the debate has most experts saying Italy's April 9
national election remains too close to call; we agree. END
SUMMARY.

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CENTER-LEFT AHEAD IN THE POLLS
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2. (C) A poll conducted January 25-16 shows the center-left
coalition led by Romano Prodi leading PM Silvio Berlusconi's
center-right coalition by 51.5 percent to 47.0 percent. An
early January poll gave the CL 52.1 percent and the CR 45.9
percent. For Berlusconi, the most recent poll is an
improvement since last summer when he trailed by 8 percentage
points. Berlusconi recently has claimed publicly that the
center-right has surpassed the center-left in polls
commissioned by Forza Italia. Italy's prominent pollsters
all agree that is not possible. Forza Italia's coordinator
for Lazio admitted to Poloff that the center-left maintains
the lead but claimed that Berlusconi's campaign talents and
the center-left's internal troubles mean the race is not over.


3. (U) A national poll conducted January 25-26 asked the
question," If national elections were held tomorrow, for
which party would you vote?" and produced the following
results: Forza Italia (20.5),National Alliance (12.5),
Union of Christian Democrats of the Center (6.0),Northern
League (4.0),Other CR parties (4),Democrats of the Left
(23),Daisy (9.5),Communist Renewal (8.5),Green (2),Di
Pietro List (2) combined Radicals and Italian Socialists
(1.5),Other CL (5).

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BERLUSCONI SETS THE PACE
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4. (U) Despite trailing in the polls, having led Italy into a
military conflict in Iraq unpopular in Italy and having been
Prime Minister during a four-year period of anemic economic
growth, Berlusconi has managed to set the campaign debate.
After regional elections in April 2006, conventional wisdom
was that the center-left was destined to ride to victory in
national elections based on a wave of discontent with the war
in Iraq and poor economic performance. Those two issues have
been almost entirely absent from the political debate since
the electoral campaign recommenced after the Christmas
holidays.


5. (C) Berlusconi set the tone in January when leaked
wiretaps connected Democrats of the Left (DS) Party Secretary
Piero Fassino to the disgraced former head of Unipol Bank.
Berlusconi implied on national television that DS leaders had
significant involvement in the corruption scandal and even
made a very public visit to prosecuting magistrates in which
he presented information on DS Secretary Fassino/ DS
President D'Alema meetings with Unipol officials. Even if
those allegations proved irrelevant to the investigation,
news of a DS-Unipol banking scandal dominated the press for
weeks and spurred a strong internal debate within the DS.
The DS left-wing is strongly opposed to any affiliation with
traditional financial interests and the episode has weakened
the reformists Fassino and D'Alema. Ominously, a prominent
Forza Italia official warned Poloff that the Unipol scandal
would strengthen the radical-left (read Communist Renewal
Party) at the expense of the DS.


6. (U) Since January, Berlusconi has appeared on nearly every
political talk show in Italy while Prodi has been all but
absent. Other center-left party leaders have faced-off
against Berlusconi, but the issues have been less important
than the fact that Berlusconi's media presence has been
ubiquitous. In fact, Berlusconi's media blitz has been the
most debated political topic for the past two weeks.


7. (SBU) The other prominent political issue has been the


conflict between Berlusconi and President Ciampi regarding
the date for the dissolution of parliament. Berlusconi
risked an institutional conflict with the Presidency but won
a postponement of the date from January 29 to February 11.
According to Berlusconi, this postpones the date in which
campaign period restrictions on media take effect. Ciampi's
disagreement with this claim is the new headline. Besides
allowing Berlusconi to maintain his high profile, his
coalition has used the extra time to pass legislation
permitting the use of lethal force in self-defense (popular
with the Northern League) and to move forward legislation
reforming the criminalization of narcotics
usage/distribution. The new date for the dissolution of
parliament corresponds with the opening of the Winter
Olympics in Italy, which will certainly distract press
attention for a few days.


8. (C) Berlusconi has all but removed Iraq from the debate.
As reported A, Minister of Defense Martino's announcement of
a withdrawal of Italian troops from Iraq by the end of 2006
is similar to the center-left's position, even if we
understand Berlusconi's policy to be slightly more nuanced.
A DS Official called Poloff the day after Martino's
announcement asking in total disbelief if the U.S. knew in
advance that Martino would make the announcement. When
Poloff said the opposition should be pleased to see Italian
troops coming home, he remarked that the timing of the
announcement was certainly not meant to please center-left
parties.

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CENTER LEFT IN DISARRAY
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9. (C) Berlusconi's maneuverings have disoriented the
famously fractioned center-left coalition (B). One Daisy
Party official confided to Poloff that the entire center-left
was depressed and just waiting to see what Berlusconi's next
move will be. Confirming this, a Daisy member of parliament
told Naples Pol/Econ Officer that he was not optimistic about
a center-left victory due the lingering effects of the Unipol
and other scandals. Union of Democrats for Europe, a small
party currently aligned with Prodi, President Clemente
Mastella is talking publicly of a future split inside the DS
and hedging for a possible shift to the center-right.
Meanwhile, Prodi has been all but absent from the political
scene.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) COMMENT: Berlusconi's dominance of the campaign
debate has lifted the spirits of his supporters and
disoriented the opposition. National elections are just 10
weeks away and despite the center-left's continued lead, the
race remains too close to call. END COMMENT.
SPOGLI


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2006ROME00276 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL