SCENESETTER: YOUR 6/16 MEETING WITH ITALIAN FM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 001757

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO OVIP IT SR YI IZ IR AF
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER: YOUR 6/16 MEETING WITH ITALIAN FM
D'ALEMA

REF: A. ROME 1755


B. ROME 1753

C. ROME 1741

D. BAGHDAD 2003

E. KABUL 2624

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Classified By: Classified by Ronald P. Spogli, Ambassador, for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)

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Summary
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1. (S/NF) FM (and Deputy PM) Massimo D'Alema is a key
political powerhouse in the new Italian government, a
nine-party coalition including the Greens and the Communists,
with a razor-thin majority in the Senate. The Prodi
government is trying to align Italy with what it believes is
the EU line, apparently content to downplay the importance of
U.S.-Italy relations and to limit Italian military
commitments exclusively to initiatives under NATO, the EU or
the UN. In contrast to previous assurances, Prodi is ceding
to the extreme left's demands for complete troop withdrawal
from Iraq, including those we had expected to provide force
protection for an Italian-led PRT. Unless we can find a
formula under which another nation provides force protection,
Italy is unlikely to have a PRT in Iraq. D'Alema confirmed
to the Ambassador June 13 that Italy does intend to increase
its contributions to the NATO training mission in Iraq and
wants to play a role in civilian assistance. Prodi has told
us he is very worried about Afghanistan's future, though
Italy's commitment there remains solid. You should share
with D'Alema our assessment of progress in Afghanistan. On
Iran, Italy wants political clout at the bargaining table to
match its status as Teheran's largest European trading
partner. Italy joins the UNSC beginning in January 2007.
End Summary.

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New Italian Political Realities
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2. (C/NF) Massimo D'Alema is a former Prime Minister and
leader of the Democrats of the Left (DS),the strongest party
in PM Prodi's nine-member coalition. Without a party
affiliation, Prodi became the compromise leader for the
Center Left, but D'Alema is the real political power behind
the new government and has ambitions to return as PM.
D'Alema and Prodi have a razor-thin majority in the Senate
and a fractious coalition that includes Greens and
Communists, who are demanding immediate withdrawal of Italian
troops from Iraq. As they promised during the election
campaign, D'Alema and Prodi are trying to align Italian
foreign policy with what they view as the EU line, although
it strikes us as rhetorically at least four years out of
date, downplaying the importance of their relations with the
U.S. and speaking of a new relationship with us based on
mutual respect, as opposed to what they considered
Berlusconi's subservience to us. The Center Left was elected
on pocketbook issues, and Prodi's main goal appears to be
stimulating the economy and conforming to EU debt limits, but
the radicals in the government may block attempts at
significant economic reform. To keep the government from
falling, Prodi and D'Alema will continue to need to satisfy
the far left. You will find D'Alema direct and open to
serious discussion; he considers himself equally, if not
more, qualified to lead than Prodi.

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Iraq
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3. (S/NF) As senior Italian diplomats told Deputy S/I
Stephenson June 9, and as FM D'Alema confirmed for the
Ambassador June 13, Italy will withdraw all of its troops
from Iraq before the end of 2006, but plans to remain engaged
in reconstruction efforts there. Without Italian troops for
force protection, the Italians are pessimistic about their
ability to lead a PRT in Dhi Qar province. They have agreed
to keep under consideration a PRT, or contributions to a PRT,
provided appropriate security arrangements can be found that
do not involve Italian troops. They plan to increase their

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participation in the NATO training mission in Iraq and will
advocate broadening NATO's participation there.

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Afghanistan
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4. (C/NF) Although PM Prodi has complained that he lacks a
clear view of the way ahead in Afghanistan, the new Italian
government is planning to increase Italy's substantial
military presence there. Italy already commands the Herat
PRT and participates in ISAF Kabul; the new Italian plan
would increase troop numbers with a variety of new
capabilities. MFA U/S Vernetti will visit Afghanistan the
week of June 19 to discuss concrete additional steps Italy
can take with Afghan leaders and Amb. Neumann. Italy's
economic and reconstruction assistance has not kept pace with
its military contribution. In particular, Italy needs to do
more in crucial justice sector reform. You will want to
thank D'Alema for Italy's important contributions in
Afghanistan, share our confident vision of Afghanistan's
future, and urge increased economic and reconstruction
support. While welcoming the additional Italian military
contribution there, you will also want to make it clear that
there is no trade-off for continued support in Iraq.

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Iran
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5. (C/NF) D'Alema issued a strong statement of support for
your May 31 announcement on Iran, saying Italy was ready to
contribute to international efforts to reach a lasting
solution to the conflict. However, Italy wants political
clout at the bargaining table to match its status as
Teheran's largest European trading partner. Prodi has
continued the Berlusconi government's push to be included in
EU-3 discussions on Iran and would welcome U.S. efforts to
include Italy in Iran discussion at the G-8 or other fora
before Italy becomes a member of the UNSC in January 2007.
Despite the economic pain, we expect Italy will support
eventual UN sanctions if the EU agrees.

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MEPP
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6. (C/NF) D'Alema has vigorously denied allegations that he
is anti-Israel, and sent MFA U/S Vernetti on a May 30 visit
to Israel to establish early government contacts. Despite
Prodi's mistaken decision to accept a congratulatory call
from Hamas, he also has established contacts with PM Olmert.
We expect this government to follow the EU lead on the MEPP
with no major policy changes. They are unlikely, however, to
be as forward-leaning as the Berlusconi government in
defending Israel's interests.

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Balkans
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7. (C/NF) Italy has long considered the Balkans to be its
backyard and the Prodi government has made clear its
intention to remain an influential power in the region.
D'Alema who supported NATO air strikes against Yugoslavia in
1999, will continue to support strong Italian participation
in the efforts of the Contact Group to find a lasting
solution to the region's problems, a continued NATO presence,
and an EU/NATO future for the countries of the former
Yugoslavia and Albania.

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Russia/Democracy/Energy Security
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8. (C/NF) Without Berlusconi's personal relationship with
Putin influencing Italian policy, the new Italian government
insists it will criticize Russia when necessary on
pro-democracy and civil rights issues. However, Italy
imports 30% of its natural gas supply from Russia and was
hard hit this winter by the disruption of supplies caused by
the Russian-Ukrainian dispute. This has created an

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atmosphere of timidity within the MFA, and it remains to be
seen whether D'Alema will step up in defense of democracy in
Russia, Belarus and the other former Soviet republics.
SPOGLI