IRAQ: ITALIAN MFA WARNS PRESSING TOO HARD ON QRF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 001347

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA, EUR/WE AND S/I

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2016
TAGS: PARM PREL UNSC PGOV EAID IZ IT
SUBJECT: IRAQ: ITALIAN MFA WARNS PRESSING TOO HARD ON QRF
COULD PUT PRT AT RISK

REF: A. ROME 1261

B. LONDON 2778

C. ROME 904

D. ROME 1221

E. STATE 40595

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Classified By: Pol M/C David D. Pearce for Reasons 1.4 (a),(b) and (d)

Summary
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1. (C) The Italian MFA does not foresee a change in Italy's
policy of gradual troop reductions, in consultation with the
Iraqis and coalition partners, in Iraq. Barring additional
terrorist attacks, the MFA also does not expect major
problems with funding renewal for the mission this summer.
But it foresees possible difficulties for the December
renewal, especially if QRF is part of the package. The MFA
cautioned that pushing this point too hard, especially at
year's end, might trigger political opposition that could put
support for the PRT at risk. (UK DCM said London will be
keeping its powder dry on Italian intentions in Iraq until
after a new Italian government is in place.) The Italian MFA
also is concerned with increasing intra-Shia violence in Dhi
Qar, and believes the Iranians are stirring up trouble in
southern Iraq. Italian magistrates have taken over
responsibility for the Oil for Food investigation, which is
expected to be a lengthy process. End summary.

Don't Push for QRF
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2. (C) PolOff met May 3 with Italian MFA Iraq Task Force
officer Stefano Stucci to discuss MFA thinking on Iraq in
light of Italy's new center-left government. The MFA does
not foresee a change in Italy's policy of gradual troop
reductions (in consultation with the Iraqis and coalition
partners) and transition to a civilian PRT with several
hundred troops providing only PRT force protection and
training for Iraqi security forces by the end of the year.
Up to 1,000 troops will be drawn down in June (leaving
1,600),followed by another 1,000 before the end of the year,
leaving approximately 600 troops for the PRT. Stucci said
this planning was based on the assumption that the security
situation in Dhi Qar province will continue to improve,
allowing Italian forces to withdraw gradually. As troops
depart, more funding will be available for the PRT and
Italy's other reconstruction projects in Baghdad and the
Kurdish north (Ref C). Stucci said Italy has strong economic
incentives for continuing the PRT through the end of 2006 and
beyond.


3. (C) Stucci, who was present at the April 11 trilats in
London (Ref B),said he and head of the Italian
delegation/MFA Iraq Task Force Director Ambassador De Martino
had been surprised and embarrassed by the Italian military's
stark assertion that Italian forces would not provide a QRF,
especially because De Martino initiated the Italian
presentation saying that Italian drawdowns would occur in
consultation with allies and according to the security
conditions on the ground. Stucci warned, however, that,
given the current political situation, pushing the Italians
too hard on QRF, especially at year's end, risked putting
the entire mission, including the PRT, under attack by
leftist Italian political forces eager to see a complete and
immediate Italian withdrawal from Iraq.


4. (C) PolOff stressed that the Italians need to continue
consulting with the U.S. and UK on their drawdown plans, and
that further drawdowns must be conditions-based.
Furthermore, it was important for Italy to publicly maintain
its commitment to these criteria to avoid the impression that
Italian troops are pulling out before the security situation
permits or in response to the April 27 IED attack that killed
three Italians and one Romanian, which would play into the
hands of terrorists. Stucci agreed, reiterating Italy's hope
that the situation will improve, but again stressing that
Italy would not be able to provide QRF once its forces
(except the several hundred protecting the PRT) have

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departed. In response to Poloff's questions as to
alternative QRF providers, Stucci said the Romanians, who
have a small presence in the Italian PRT, do not have the
capacity to provide QRF.

MFA Concern about December Funding
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5. (C) Barring additional attacks against Italian forces,
Stucci did not foresee major problems with Parliament's next
six-month funding renewal for the Italian mission (due to
occur in June/July). Noting that Iraqi leaders have asked
the incoming center-left government to maintain Italy's
presence in Iraq, Stucci said Prodi has publicly stated that
Italy's decisions will be made in consultation with Iraqi
leaders. (Note. Prodi recently also said, "in consultation
with coalition partners." End note.) Despite the extreme
left's vocal calls for immediate troop withdrawal, Stucci did
not believe Italian Communist party (PdCI) leader Diliberto
and others were willing to bring down the new government so
soon after its establishment over Iraq or any other foreign
policy matter. The December vote could be more problematic,
he said, especially if QRF is included in the package.

U.S. Should Weigh in Now, Discreetly
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6. (C) Stucci agreed that the U.S. should "discreetly" lobby
members of both the center left and center right to help
secure support for the PRT plan and to ensure that parliament
passes the June/July funding renewal bill. He recommended
engaging with the more leftist elements of the moderate
center-left (Democrats of the Left and Daisy) and moderate
members of the extreme left (Greens and Communist Renewal),
acknowledging that some elements in the extreme left would
never change their opposition to Italian troops in Iraq and
were therefore not worth pursuing.


7. (C) Stucci said senior MFA officials, including A/S
equivalent for the Middle East Riccardo Sessa, waiting for
the political winds to settle in anticipation of new
postings, are being cautious on Iraq and other sensitive
topics. Given that caution from the Italian bureaucracy,
U.S. efforts to lobby the new government could be especially
useful, Stucci said, provided they are done out of the public
eye.

Comment
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8. (C) The MFA clearly is concerned that Italy will not be
able to maintain a QRF as part of the PRT. Stucci's message
on this was clear: don't push, or we'll lose the entire PRT.
This caution reflects the current mood of the MFA as it
waits for a new Foreign Minister to be named. End comment.
End comment.

London: Awaiting New Italian Government
--------------


9. (C) We cross-checked with the UK DCM, since Italian troops
are in the UK sector. He said the message he heard from the
MFA was that the only military elements that would be left at
year's end would be force protection for the PRT, and not
double-hatted for QRF. That said, London will be keeping its
powder dry regarding Italian intentions in Iraq until a new
government is in place.

Iran Stoking the Fires
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10. (C) Stucci said the MFA is concerned about increasing
intra-Shia conflicts in Dhi Qar, though he noted that
disunity among the Shia would make it harder for Iran to
exert its influence over them. Stucci characterized Iran's
strategy in Iraq as "keeping the pot boiling but not spilling
over." In other words, he said, Tehran wants to keep the
U.S. preoccupied in Iraq but does not want a full-fledged
civil war, which would have undesirable spillover effects in

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the region.

Oil For Food Investigations in the Hands of Italian
Magistrates
-------------- --------------


11. (C) Stucci said the Council of Ministers decided to
create an interministerial task force (Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, Ministry of Productive Activities, and Ministry of
Justice, under the direction of PM Berlusconi's top advisor
Gianni Letta) to investigate the Oil for Food scandal.
However, the task force "collapsed" and now the matter was in
the hands of Italian magistrates. Stucci said, given the
importance and independence of magistrates in Italy and the
MFA's current cautious approach on politically sensitive
matters, the MFA was no longer involved in the process, which
he expects will take years.
SPOGLI