ITALY: CODEL HYDE HEARS PLANS FOR A ROBUST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001203

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV OREP IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ITALY: CODEL HYDE HEARS PLANS FOR A ROBUST
CENTER-RIGHT OPPOSITION


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Anna Borg, for reasons 1.4 (B)(D).


1. (C) Summary. Berlusconi U/S Gianni Letta told a
visiting Codel Hyde delegation April 19 that, given a strong
second-place showing in the elections, the center-right would
play the part of a particularly robust opposition party when
the new center-left government took office. He predicted
that despite a few bumps, including on Iraq, we should expect
bilateral relations under a center-left government to remain
strong. He also predicted that (DS) Fassino would be the new
Foreign Minister with (Daisy) Rutelli becoming Minister of
Interior and (DS) D'Alema going to lead the Chamber of
Deputies. Letta expressed Berlusconi's deep appreciation for
the opportunity to address the U.S.Congress in March and for
joint security cooperation on the Turin Olympics. End
Summary.

Nostalgia
--------------


2. (SBU) House International Relations Committee Chairman
Henry Hyde led a delegation to Rome April l8-20 to attend an
audience with Pope Benedict and meet with Italian officials.
During a meeting the delegation, PM Berlusconi's chief aide,
U/S Gianni Letta, was in an unusually expansive and nostalgic
mood. He regretted Berlusconi was out of town but expressed
the Prime Minister's appreciation for the opportunity to
address the U.S. Congress in March saying it was "the
emotional high point" of his life and gave Italians of all
political persuasions a chance to be proud of their country.
He also voiced thanks for our security cooperation that
helped to make the Turin Olympics a safe and successful event.


3. (SBU) Congressman Issa thanked Letta for Italy's
participation in joint initiatives from the Balkans to the
Middle East and said that the Berlusconi government had
changed history. In response to questions, Letta assured the
delegation that, regardless of the center-left win,
U.S.-Italian relations would continue to be strong because
they were based on history and personal ties. He recalled
with both nostalgia and pride his personal relationships with
U.S. Ambassadors dating back to the Carter era and praised
Ambassador Spogli for his deep understanding of the Italian
scene "from day one." Letta said one of his fondest memories
was attending a dinner hosted by Berlusconi for President
George W. Bush and former Presidents Bush and Clinton when
they visited in 2005 for Pope John Paul II's funeral.

Promises of a Robust Opposition
--------------


4. (SBU) Asked about his future plans, Letta said he
intended to remain at Berlusconi's side. Noting that the
center-right had won in all of the most commercially
productive regions of the country, especially the North, and
had lost by only 24,000 votes, Letta said that he expected
the center-right would be a particularly strong opposition
player in the next government. He mused that perhaps "our
cooperation could be even stronger now." Interestingly, Letta
had the exact vote tallies in advance of the Court of
Cassation's announcement that was released shortly after the
delegation meeting ended.


5. (C) Asked by Congressman Issa to speculate about new
cabinet ministers, Letta joked that this was the most popular
lottery game in Italy today. He said that (DS) Massimo
D'Alema wanted the MFA but would probably become President of
the Chamber of Deputies. Radical Party leader Emma Bonino
also wanted the MFA but would be blocked by DS and the Daisy
Party, so (DS) Piero Fassino was the best bet for Foreign
Minister. He expected the Ministry of Interior to go to
(Daisy) Francesco Rutelli. He predicted that both Fassino
and Rutelli would be Deputy Prime Ministers.

Iraq
--------------


6. (SBU) Congressman Flake noted that he had visited
Italian troops in Iraq and thanked Italy for its support.
Letta was genuinely appreciative, noting that Italy's role
was due to Berlusconi's determination to cooperate despite
domestic opposition and his friendship with President Bush.
Congressman Fortuno asked how we could keep Italy engaged in
our shared global initiatives in the next government. Letta
reiterated that strategic and historical ties would remain
strong but acknowledged there could be a few more bumps along
the way, including on Iraq. On Iraq, Letta said he hoped the
new leadership would be responsible and act cautiously and in
accordance with allies and friends.

Muslim Integration
--------------


7. (SBU) Responding to a question from Congressman Flake,
Letta said that Italy had adopted a two-track policy with
regarding to immigration and Muslim integration. The
government enacted the Bossi-Fini immigration law to
regularize, welcome and integrate moderate elements and
worked to isolate or expel those who support violence or
fanaticism. He noted that the Minister of Interior had
created a Muslim Consultative Council to reach out to
moderate Muslims. Letta believed Italy's policies were more
successful and credible because Italy did not have the
negative baggage associated with the colonial experience of
France or some other nations.


8. (C) Comment: Meeting shortly before the official
announcement confirming Prodi's center-left win, Letta was in
an unusually relaxed and nostalgic mood. But Letta made it
clear that Berlusconi plans to remain engaged and combative
as leader of the opposition. The fact that Berlusconi has
yet to officially concede is the first sign of what may be a
long battle for Prodi in his efforts to form a government and
stay in power.


9. (U) Codel Hyde has cleared this message.








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