ITALY: CERTIFIED VOTE RESULTS EXPECTED SOON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001162

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ITALY: CERTIFIED VOTE RESULTS EXPECTED SOON

REF: A. ROME 1115

B. ROME 1107

Classified By: Acting DCM David D. Pearce for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) A consensus is developing that the Italian Court of
Cassation will issue certified election results next Tuesday,
April 18, though reports that the recount could take a few
days longer persist. UDC Party Secretary Lorenzo Cesa told
the press that election results would not change, and FI
officials have told us privately they do not expect the
recount to materially affect seat assignments in parliament.
Press and political commentators have begun to speculate that
PM Berlusconi's push for a recount and random accusations of
voting irregularities were never intended to affect the
election outcome in any material way. Rather, many believe
Berlusconi is simply leveraging his own advantages, and
weaknesses in Prodi's coalition, to best position himself and
Forza Italia for the future. END SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
RECOUNT FINISHED AFTER EASTER HOLIDAY: LITTLE TO CHANGE
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Consensus is building that Italy's Cassation Court
will officially certify results for Italy's April 9-10
parliamentary election after the Easter holiday. Monday,
April 17 is a national holiday so speculation is that results
might be released on April 18. Center-left (CL) leader
Romano Prodi announced April 13, "our victory will be
certified in the next few days." Sources inside PM Silvio
Berlusconi's Forza Italia (FI) party speculated to Poloff
that results will be ready "before the end of next week."


3. (C) UDC Party Secretary Lorenzo Cesa, whose party
currently is part of Berlusconi's center-right (CR)
coalition, said April 13 that the recount would likely not
change the results of the elections. The press cites FI
sources as saying that approximately 4,000 votes have been
reassigned to the CR and notes that this is far short of the
25,224 votes needed by the CR. Political commentators have
overwhelmingly concluded the Cassation Court will declare
that the CL obtained the majority of seats in both the
Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Even FI sources have
confided to us that they do not expect any material change in
seat assignments in the two houses, though they remain
hopeful.

--------------
ANGLING FOR THE ADVANTAGE
--------------


4. (C) Press and political commentators have begun to
speculate that PM Berlusconi's push for a recount and his
various accusations of voting irregularities were never
intended to affect the election outcome in any material way.
While one FI official told Poloff that with such close
results and high stakes, Berlusconi felt obligated to call
for a recount, he admitted that it is mostly about Berlusconi
positioning himself for the future. Another FI official was
more direct: Berlusconi is trying to maximize his political
leverage and ensure he has a role in picking up the pieces
after a Prodi government inevitably falls.

--------------
IS THE SENATE MAJORITY VIABLE?
--------------


5. (C) Many commentators maintain that Prodi's senate
majority is not viable. With his current coalition, Prodi
holds a slim 158 to 156 advantage in the Senate. One senator
elected abroad remains unaligned and 5 of 7 senators for life
sympathize with the CL. For purposes of obtaining a vote of
confidence in the Senate, it is unclear whether the senators
for life would participate. In any case, Senator for Life
Francesco Cossiga has said he would switch sympathies from
the CL to the CR if his peers participate in the confidence
result. A President of the Senate must be elected prior to
the confidence vote, and filling an institutional position,
that person would not be allowed to participate in the
confidence vote. Therefore, Prodi's initial Senate majority
appears to be: 161-159-1 under the best of circumstances, or
157-156-1 if the senators for life abstain.

--------------
EARLY DIVISIONS IN THE CENTER-LEFT
--------------


6. (C) Speculation already exists regarding discontent within
the Democrats of the Left (DS) and the Daisy Party with how
Prodi is managing the coalition. Forming the center of the
center-left, these two parties apparently took umbrage when
Prodi postponed a larger Union coalition meeting in order to
hold a one-on-one with far-left Communist Renewal (RC) Party
Secretary Fausto Bertinotti on April 12. DS President

SIPDIS
Massimo D'Alema has previously expressed concern that Prodi
remains overly affected by Bertinotti's 1998 decision to
withdraw confidence from his first administration. D'Alema is
featured in a full-page interview in the April 14 issue of
the Corriere della Sera in which he speaks of the need for
dialogue between the two poles and does not preclude the
possibility of a CR leader becoming President of the Senate.
Prodi and Bertinotti have dismissed this idea publicly, and
the difference in tactic is being viewed by commentators as a
message from D'Alema to Prodi and Bertinotti not to sideline
the coalition's largest party.


7. (C) A Berlusconi aide told Poloff that there are two axes
within the CL: Prodi-Bertinotti and DS-Daisy. Berlusconi's
tactic is to use the election recount and other strains
within the CL in order to weaken the Prodi government before
it is born.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Italy's political class is abuzz with chatter ranging
from Prodi assuming PM of a weak government to Berlusconi
blocking Prodi from ever sitting in Palazzo Chigi. It is way
too early to place credence in much of this speculation.
However, the mere fact that the political cognoscenti are
describing his potential political demise means Prodi is
playing a weak hand. END COMMENT
BORG