Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06RIYADH3766
2006-05-16 06:54:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Riyadh
Cable title:
ARAMCO CONSULTANT DOUBTS ARAMCO CAN MOVE PAST 12.5
how-toVZCZCXRO5645 PP RUEHDE DE RUEHRH #3766 1360654 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 160654Z MAY 06 FM AMEMBASSY RIYADH TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7480 INFO RUEHHH/OPEC COLLECTIVE RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L RIYADH 003766
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DHAHRAN SENDS
PARIS FOR ZEYA, LONDON FOR TSOU
ENERGY DEPARTMENT FOR GEORGE PERSON AND JAMES HART
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2016
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON SA
SUBJECT: ARAMCO CONSULTANT DOUBTS ARAMCO CAN MOVE PAST 12.5
MILLION BARRELS PER DAY
Classified by Consul General John Kincannon for reason 1.4
(d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L RIYADH 003766
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DHAHRAN SENDS
PARIS FOR ZEYA, LONDON FOR TSOU
ENERGY DEPARTMENT FOR GEORGE PERSON AND JAMES HART
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2016
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON SA
SUBJECT: ARAMCO CONSULTANT DOUBTS ARAMCO CAN MOVE PAST 12.5
MILLION BARRELS PER DAY
Classified by Consul General John Kincannon for reason 1.4
(d).
1. (C) An American expatriate who is a senior consultant to
Saudi Aramco on oil drilling operations told the CG recently
that he doubted Aramco would be able to develop a maximum
sustainable oil production capacity (MSC) "much beyond" 12.5
million barrels per day after 2009. (Note: Aramco's current
plan is to reach an MSC of 12.5 million barrels per day,
including production from the Neutral Zone, by the end of
2009. End note.) The consultant based his argument on two
related points: falling production in mature fields and the
scarcity of trained personnel, rigs, and materiel. The
consultant believed Aramco could reach an MSC of 12.5 million
barrels per day but did not think it would have the "oomph"
to move beyond that number in the further "out years."
(Comment: As a counterargument to this consultant's
assessment, Aramco's plan to develop the Manifa field is
clearly intended to move production past the 12.5 million
target. End comment.)
2. (C) Comment and bio note: The consultant is on his
second tour with Aramco, the first being during the 1980s
when he was seconded to Aramco from his then parent company,
a U.S. petroleum major. He has more than twenty years of
industry experience. While we cannot evaluate the merit of
his assessment, he seems to have enough industry knowledge
and access to technical data to be in a position to make a
reasoned assessment. Post notes that there is no firm
consensus among industry experts on whether Aramco could move
to an MSC greater than 12.5 million barrels per day after
2009. Post plans to continue to explore this question on a
low-key basis with Aramco expatriates in similar positions to
see if there is a trend in their assessments. End comment
and bio note.
(APPROVED: KINCANNON)
GFOELLER
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DHAHRAN SENDS
PARIS FOR ZEYA, LONDON FOR TSOU
ENERGY DEPARTMENT FOR GEORGE PERSON AND JAMES HART
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2016
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON SA
SUBJECT: ARAMCO CONSULTANT DOUBTS ARAMCO CAN MOVE PAST 12.5
MILLION BARRELS PER DAY
Classified by Consul General John Kincannon for reason 1.4
(d).
1. (C) An American expatriate who is a senior consultant to
Saudi Aramco on oil drilling operations told the CG recently
that he doubted Aramco would be able to develop a maximum
sustainable oil production capacity (MSC) "much beyond" 12.5
million barrels per day after 2009. (Note: Aramco's current
plan is to reach an MSC of 12.5 million barrels per day,
including production from the Neutral Zone, by the end of
2009. End note.) The consultant based his argument on two
related points: falling production in mature fields and the
scarcity of trained personnel, rigs, and materiel. The
consultant believed Aramco could reach an MSC of 12.5 million
barrels per day but did not think it would have the "oomph"
to move beyond that number in the further "out years."
(Comment: As a counterargument to this consultant's
assessment, Aramco's plan to develop the Manifa field is
clearly intended to move production past the 12.5 million
target. End comment.)
2. (C) Comment and bio note: The consultant is on his
second tour with Aramco, the first being during the 1980s
when he was seconded to Aramco from his then parent company,
a U.S. petroleum major. He has more than twenty years of
industry experience. While we cannot evaluate the merit of
his assessment, he seems to have enough industry knowledge
and access to technical data to be in a position to make a
reasoned assessment. Post notes that there is no firm
consensus among industry experts on whether Aramco could move
to an MSC greater than 12.5 million barrels per day after
2009. Post plans to continue to explore this question on a
low-key basis with Aramco expatriates in similar positions to
see if there is a trend in their assessments. End comment
and bio note.
(APPROVED: KINCANNON)
GFOELLER