LATVIAN MFA ON BELARUS AND GEORGIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000847

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2016
TAGS: PREL EAID BO GG RU LG
SUBJECT: LATVIAN MFA ON BELARUS AND GEORGIA

REF: A) RIGA 633 B) STATE 171907

Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: Belarus has dropped the charges against the
Latvian diplomat accused in July of distribution of
pornography and transferred the evidence to Latvia under the
bilateral mutual legal assistance treaty. While this should
allow some stabilization in the bilateral relationship,
including the likely return of the Latvian Ambassador to
Minsk, the entire experience is causing the GOL to reevaluate
its relationship with Belarus. It will consider how to best
use its nascent assistance program as a policy tool in
Belarus, hoping to focus on people to people exchanges. On
Georgia, Latvia is concerned by recent Russian actions, but
agreed to somewhat softer GAERC language in order to reach
consensus. They would like to see NATO SYG de Hoop Scheffer
discuss Georgia when he visits Moscow later in the month. In
Georgia, Latvia is considering how best to use its
development assistance to strengthen government institutions.
End summary


2. (U) Pol/econ chief met October 16 with Edgars Skuja, MFA
U/S for bilateral affairs to review a number of issues.
Skuja was accompanied by Liga Andersone, Office Director
equivalent for the FSU.

Belarus
--------------


3. (C) Pol/econ chief asked about press reports that Belarus
had dropped the charges against the Latvian diplomat accused
of distributing pornography in July following a sting
operation(ref A). Skuja said that the GOB had formally
closed its investigation and, under the terms of the
Latvia-Belarus Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty, transferred
all evidence to the Latvian government on October 12, which
in turn has passed it to the Latvian Prosecutor General's
Office. Skuja said the Latvian Prosecutor would have a free
hand to determine whether any charges would be filed. Skuja
met October 12 with the Belarusian Ambassador to Latvia who
assured him, on a political level, that the case is closed
and they look to move forward on the bilateral relationship.


4. (C) The next step will be for Belarusian Ambassador
Gerasimenko to have a meeting with Latvian FM Pabriks. Since
presenting credentials in July, Gerasimenko has not had any
courtesy calls on GOL officials and abruptly departed the
country just before the scandal erupted. Skuja thought this
meeting could happen as early as October 18. In that
meeting, Pabriks would note that Belarus violated the Vienna
Convention in Diplomatic Relations, even if only "indirectly
or unwittingly" and Gerasimenko will so acknowledge. The GOL
will reflect that acknowledgement in a press statement,
although the Belarusian side is not expected to make any such
direct statement to the press. If that all happens, Pabriks
could decide as early as October 19 to allow Latvian
Ambassador to Minsk Maira Mora to return to post.


5. (C) More problematic, according to Skuja, are some
meetings scheduled for later in October, including the
Latvia-Belarus intergovernmental commission (IGC) planned for
October 27 and an investment forum in Minsk the following
day. Skuja thought the GOL might delay the IGC, citing the
recent Latvian elections, and the Belarusians might then
delay the investment forum. That was fine, Skuja thought, as
the GOL needed an opportunity to rethink its Belarus policy.
He thought the GOL was likely to step up its efforts to build
people to people contacts between the two countries as a
result of this. The one event that should go forward is an
October 31 meeting in Riga to sign technical agreements
related to the recent demarcation of the border.


6. (C) Reflecting on the lessons learned from the incident
and its aftermath, Skuja said that it became clear to the GOL
just how much "heavy competition" there is between GOB
institutions such as the Ministry of the Interior, MFA, BKGB
and the President's office. Throughout the negotiations with
Minsk, the GOB was rarely able to speak with one voice. The
one person the Latvians found helpful was PM Sidorsky. While
acknowledging his lack of ability to bring about real change,
Sidorsky was the most open and helpful person in the process,
Skuja said.

Georgia
--------------

7. (C) Skuja welcomed the discussion in NATO's political
committee on Georgia October 13 and said Latvia thought that
was a very good consultation. Pol/econ chief, drawing from
ref B, stressed the importance of holding such consultations
in a timely manner and urged Latvia not to let some nations
delay such consultations for their own ends. Skuja agreed,
but said Latvia had not been too energized because in

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multiple conversations with Georgian officials the weeks of
October 2 and 9 (including Latvian president with Georgian
Speaker and the two PM's),the Georgians had not asked for
any assistance from the Latvians in getting this raised in
NATO or the EU. Skuja added, though, that Latvia thought the
NATO SYG de Hoop Scheffer should definitely discuss Georgia
on his upcoming visit to Moscow and he would instruct the
Latvian mission to NATO to make this point.


8. (C) Skuja said Latvia was pleased with the language likely
to emerge from the GAERC on Georgia. While Latvia might have
wanted some tougher wording on Russia's actions, at least
what was currently on the table reflected that both Georgia
and Russia needed to work to deescalate tensions and it
strongly supports resolving the separatist conflicts in a way
that fully respects Georgia's sovereignty and territorial
integrity. Skuja said that Latvia will consider ways to use
its development assistance in Georgia to strengthen State
institutions there.


9. (C) Comment: Latvia has never had illusions about the
nature of the Lukashenko regime, but they perhaps thought
they might have better luck than others at working with it.
The July incident and its aftermath have been eye opening for
the GOL, but it is hard to predict exactly what policy will
emerge from the interplay of foreign policy goals to promote
democracy and economic goals to promote trade and investment.
On Georgia, the Latvians' natural instinct seems to be to
take a tough line with Moscow, but that is tempered by the
institutional realities of both the EU and NATO, which end up
softening the Latvian position. Importantly, in both cases
Skuja noted that Latvia's small assistance budget could be a
tool, meaning they are beginning to factor this into their
policy development. It is a good sign ahead of the October
19 - 20 visit of EUR/ACE coordinator Tom Adams.
BAILEY