LATVIA AND RUSSIA TO SIGN COOPERATION AGREEMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L RIGA 000820

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016
TAGS: PREL ECON GE RU LG
SUBJECT: LATVIA AND RUSSIA TO SIGN COOPERATION AGREEMENTS
OCTOBER 13

REF: RIGA 481

Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (D)


1. (C/NF) Summary: Latvian Economics Minister Stokenbergs
will travel to Moscow October 13 to sign bilateral agreements
on economic cooperation and establishing an intergovernmental
commission to manage the bilateral relationship. The signing
of these agreements represents the end of several months of
intensive, behind the scenes negotiations with the assistance
of outside parties, including the Russian patriarch and the
German Chancellor. With Latvian PM Kalvitis likely to
continue in office following October 7 elections, the
question now will be whether the two countries can move to
sign the long-stalled border treaty. End summary.


2. (U) The GOL quietly announced October 6 that Economics
Minister Stokenbergs will travel to Moscow to sign two
bilateral agreements. The first would establish an
intergovernmental commission between the two countries to
manage the overall bilateral relationship. The second is an
agreement on economic cooperation. The Russian signatory
will be Economic/Trade Minister Gref. We understand that,
neither agreement requires parliamentary approval in either
country and both will come in to force upon signature.


3. (C/NF) The signing of these two agreements has been a key
initiative of PM Kalvitis since his June meetings with
Russian PM Fradkov and President Putin (reftel). The
Russians have moved forward at varying speeds since then to
ratify the agreements. The Latvians have used two outside
sources along the way to prod the GOR along. The first is
Russian Patriarch Alexis whose May visit to Riga is viewed by
the Latvians as opening the way to the June meetings. The
Latvians have used the patriarch along the way to keep Moscow
focused on this.


4. (C/NF) The other key source of support for this has been
Germany, and particularly Chancellor Merkel. Her foreign
policy advisor, Heusgen, and PM Kalvitis' foreign policy
advisor, Peteris Ustubs, served together in Brussels and
remain friends. They have worked closely together on this,
but Merkel seems to have taken a personal interest in the
issue, raising it with Putin on a number of occasions.
Heusgen also pressed Putin's foreign policy advisor Prikhodko
several times on this issue. The Latvians and Germans both
wanted these agreements signed prior to the EU informal
dinner with Putin October 20.


5. (C/NF) Comment: In the difficult Latvian/Russian
relationship, small steps matter and these two agreements,
while not earth-shattering in substance, are significant in
that they have been pending for several years and provide
building blocks for organizing more normal bilateral
relationships. Most of the credit here lies with the PM and
Ustubs, who really drove the process within the GOL and with
key partners like Germany. With Kalvitis likely to stay as
PM, the GOL is likely to focus on the long stalled border
treaty as the next step. If both sides can control their
worst impulses to stick it to the other on that agreement and
manage get it signed, it would be a significant step forward
in the bilateral relationship.
BAILEY