Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06RIGA802
2006-10-04 10:37:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Riga
Cable title:  

CENTER-RIGHT PARTIES LEAD IN RUN UP TO LATVIA'S

Tags:  PGOV LG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9270
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHRA #0802 2771037
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041037Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY RIGA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3391
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS RIGA 000802 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV LG
SUBJECT: CENTER-RIGHT PARTIES LEAD IN RUN UP TO LATVIA'S
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

Ref: a) Riga 761 b) Riga 762

UNCLAS RIGA 000802

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV LG
SUBJECT: CENTER-RIGHT PARTIES LEAD IN RUN UP TO LATVIA'S
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

Ref: a) Riga 761 b) Riga 762


1. Summary: Latest opinion polls conducted just days before
Latvia's October 7 parliamentary elections suggest that center-right
parties are likely to retain power with increasing discussion that
current Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis will remain at the helm of
the next government. However, due to the large number of undecided
voters (nearly 20 percent),definite predictions as to exactly what
parties and politicians might make up the next government are
premature. End summary.


2. According to an opinion poll conducted at the end of September,
the People's Party (TP) and the Greens and Farmers' Union (ZZS) are
neck and neck for the first spot with 12.6 percent and 12.3 percent,
respectively. Russia-oriented For Human Rights in a United Latvia
(PCTVL) follows with 8.8 percent. The winners of the 2002 election,
New Era (JL),have slumped to 7.1 percent. Ainars Slesers' First
Party/Latvia's Way (LPP/LC) slate, nationalist Fatherland and
Freedom/LNNK (TB/LNNK) and center-left Harmony Center are all
hovering above the five-percent threshold with 5.9 percent, 5.8
percent and 5.7 percent, respectively. The other parties will have
to scramble very hard to cross the five-percent barrier. However,
the large number of undecided voters (18.6 percent) will play a
significant role in deciding which of the major parties will come
out on top.


3. Depending on the outcome of the elections, it is likely that the
current coalition of TP, ZZS and LPP/LC will make up the core of the
next government. If TP finishes on top of the poll, Prime Minister
Aigars Kalvitis may well retain his job. If ZZS wins the elections,
they may push for their candidate, Ventspils' mayor Aivars Lembergs,
as the next PM, although President Vike-Freiberga has made it clear
that she would not ask him to form a government. LPP/LC's candidate
Ainars Slesers stands a chance to become PM if his party does not do
significantly worse than TP and ZZS (which is not what the polls
currently suggest),and if the two larger parties block each
another's candidate. It is quite clear, though, that none of the
parties will win an absolute majority of seats in the Saeima
(parliament),and days if not weeks or even months of horse-trading
lie ahead.


4. Polls will close at 10PM on October 7 and counting will go into
the early morning and likely continue into October 8. By sometime
on the 9th, or possibly the 10th, we should at least know which
parties have won how many seats and then the coalition building
math, if not the politics, will become clearer.

BAILEY