Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06RIGA792
2006-09-29 05:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Riga
Cable title:  

WHAT'S AT STAKE IN LATVIA'S ELECTIONS?

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PREL LG 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RIGA 000792 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL LG
SUBJECT: WHAT'S AT STAKE IN LATVIA'S ELECTIONS?


Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RIGA 000792

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL LG
SUBJECT: WHAT'S AT STAKE IN LATVIA'S ELECTIONS?


Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: While Latvia's parliamentary elections
October 7 are unlikely to bring about a major near term
change in foreign policy, the elections merit USG attention
for two reasons. First, they will give us indication of
whether Latvia will continue to press forward on efforts to
strengthen rule of law, or slow down, now that the country
has gained membership in both the EU and NATO. Second, the
parliament elected in October will choose Latvia's next
president when Vaira Vike-Freiberga's second term ends in

2007. She has been a brake on some of the worst excesses in
Latvian politics and dominated Latvia's foreign policy,
shaping it in a determinedly pro-U.S. manner. We do not
believe that either of these issues will be forefront in the
mind of the largely apathetic electorate, thus leaving them
in the hands of Latvia's political elite. End summary.

Outlook for Coalition Formation


2. (C) Latvian voters will elect their 100 member
legislature, the Saeima, on October 7. Current polls and the
conventional wisdom point to a parliament with most of the
same parties participating as in the current one, although
there are some major questions about individual parties'
number of seats. Key among these are the following: how will
the presence of Ventspils mayor Aivars Lembergs, indicted on
corruption charges, affect the tallies for the Greens and
Farmers Union? Will the conservative First Party and the
ethnic-Russian oriented Harmony Center clear the five percent
threshold? Will nationalist Fatherland and Freedom be able
to win a significant number of seats with many of its most
popular leaders serving in the European parliament and unable
to run in these elections? Will center-right New Era win
enough seats to ensure the other Latvian parties must work
with it? Or will they cmoe to regret their decision to walk
out of the government earlier this year in protest of a
corruption scandal? Most observers agree that the ethnic
Russian parties will once again win 25 - 30 seats, with the
remaining seats divided among the centrist and center-right

ethnic Latvian parties. The chances of the Russian parties
being brought into government is basically nil, so the
question is simply one of math.


3. (C) Post elections, the key question will likely be a
tactical one - what arrangements among the parties will
produce a government that can win a vote of confidence? Most
people we talk to think that the most likely coalition
arrangement would be the same as the current minority
government - People's Party, Greens and Farmers, and First
Party -- with Fatherland and Freedom possibly joining to
provide a majority if needed. Flagging poll numbers for New
Era suggest it is unlikely to have enough seats to hold the
balance of power, as they did in the previous elections, when
they garnered the largest number of seats. We have seen that
the other parties are happy to avoid having to work with New
Era if possible, following the acrimonious period which led
to New Era leaving the government and the creation of the
current minority government.

Rule of Law


4. (C) If the new governing coalition contains the same basic
components, then it is hard to envision immediate major
changes in policy, although some key players may change. In
the short term (six to eight months),we believe that the
government which emerges from the election will continue to
support us in the Global War on Terror (including maintaining
troops in Iraq),democracy promotion in Latvia's neighborhood
(especially Belarus, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine) and a
range of other foreign policy priorities.


5. (C) The biggest open question is what attitude Latvia's
politicians adopt toward the rule of law. To join the EU and
NATO, Latvia put a lot of structures and legislation in
place, but they have not had much time to operate, and
implementation and coordination remain weak. Talking to
journalists, political scientists, NGO's and even
politicians, there is a real sense here that these elections
are critical for the medium-term future of the rule of law in
Latvia. Have the values of openness, transparency and good
governance really begun to take root in Latvia or were the
measures pushed through in large measure under the spur of EU
membership criteria? As one journalist said, "The question
in this is election is whether it is about which oligarch
should get wealthier or which one should be sent to prison."
The answer will tell us a lot about whether Latvia has really
turned the corner on these issues.


6. (C) A government dominated by Greens and Farmers, First
Party, and certain elements in the People's Party could very
possibly pursue amendments to the criminal code that would
make investigations harder for law enforcement.

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Additionally, the positions of Prosecutor-General Maizitis,
anti-corruption bureau (KNAB) director Loskotovs, and other
key officials who have been proponents of strengthening the
rule of law could be in jeopardy. In the most extreme -and
unlikely - scenario we hear there could be an attempt to pack
the Constitutional Court to ensure that any attempt to
challenge any bad legislation passed by the new Saeima would
fail. In the days and weeks following the elections, we will
need to closely watch for signs of initiatives in the Saeima
to weaken transparency and strengthen the hand of the
oligarchs.

The Next Latvian President


7. (C) The parliament selected in October will choose the
next President of Latvia when Vaira Vike-Freiberga's term
expires next July (or sooner if she wins the race for UN
Secretary General). Vike-Freiberga's force of personality

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has made the presidency far more important that its
constitutionally-defined role. She has stood up to the
parties to demand more accountability and reductions in
corruption, she has vetoed laws that she felt were designed
only to score cheap political points, but most importantly
for us, she has been the primary architect and spokesperson
for Latvian foreign policy for much of her eight years in
office. She has spoken in favor of US policy and values on
numerous occasions and has helped ensure Latvia's continued
participation in coalition operations and support in the
Global War on Terror. She has encouraged an insular
population to look outward and take an interest in the
struggles for democracy and freedom around the world.


8. (C) While politicians would never criticize the very
popular president publicly -- it would be political suicide
-- they privately grumble that she is too independent and has
expanded the role of her office far more than was ever
intended. They hope to find someone that is more "one of
them" and who will be, frankly, more controllable. For
example, Vike-Freiberga has made it crystal clear that she
will never appoint Aivars Lembergs to the post of Prime
Minister, but we cannot exclude the possibility of a future
president doing that. As noted above, Latvia's monied
interests, including Lembergs, want a change in the criminal
code that would allow suspects access to evidence against
them even while the investigation is ongoing, potentially
allowing suspects to see what the police haven't yet found
and take steps to destroy or hide information. We doubt
Vike-Freiberga would ever sign such a law and she would
likely use the bully pulpit to shame the parliament from
overturning that. We cannot predict what another president
would do. Additionally, Vike-Freiberga has articulated a
vision of Latvia's foreign policy that is based on values and
is thus pro-US, pro-NATO and pro-EU. Given her stature and
personality, her governments have had to fall in line behind
her on this. Vike-Frieberga is quietly supporting Zaneta
Ozolina, who head's the President's strategic analysis
commision, to succeed her because her values and principles
are in line with the current President's. However, since the
election will be conducted only by members of the Saeima,
nothing is certain or predictable about the outcome. A
future president could have a less dominant role in foreign
policy and we could see shifts in policy, very possibly to be
more EU-oriented, but also perhaps to be "cozier" with
Latvian business interests, many of whom have ties to Russia,
Belarus and other countries in the region.

The Voters


9. (C) The key variable in all of this, of course, is the
Latvian voter. The general mood in advance of the elections
is one of apathy. Latvians seem to have very low
expectations of their politicians and a growing economy
dampens malcontent. Polls here show trust in and respect for
political parties and parliament below twenty percent. We do
not see strengthening the rule of rule or continuing the
legacy of Vike-Freiberga as major motivators for most voters.
Revelations earlier in the year that then Minister for
Transport Ainars Slesers arranged a vote buying scam to sway
a municipal election (and presumably free up prime real
estate for development by him and/or his supporters) was met
with a yawn. Allegations from New Era ministers that senior
officials in the economic and justice ministry were
mishandling EU structural funds and prison construction
contracts respectively were used by other parties to make the
point that New Era can't work with others; and the public
seems to agree that New Era should have stayed in government
and pursued its agenda from within the government. As a
result, voter turnout is likely to drop to between sixty and
sixty-five percent (it was just over seventy percent in
2002). Most people will make their choice not on the basis
of any party platforms, but on the basis of personality and,
in many cases, ethnic identity. Recent polls show that, less
than three weeks before elections, roughly twenty percent of

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the electorate was undecided about their vote. Fifteen years
after the restoration of independence and two years after
joining the EU and NATO, the average Latvian voter feels that
the big goals have been achieved and is more interested in
enjoying the fruits of the earlier efforts rather than
striving to see what else might be achieved.
BAILEY