PM'S CHIEF OF STAFF ON LATVIAN POLITICAL SCENE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000527

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR LG
SUBJECT: PM'S CHIEF OF STAFF ON LATVIAN POLITICAL SCENE


Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: Latvia's October elections should produce a
politial alignment similar to the coalition currently in
office, although the nationalist Fatherland and Freedom could
significantly increase its seats, according to the PM's chief
of staff, Jurgis Liepnieks. Liepnieks, a consummate
political animal, sketched his views on the domestic
political scene in a meeting with pol/econ chief. He thought
Aivars Lembergs would be a candidate for Prime Minister but
would not get the job and would not settle for a lesser post.
Although colored a bit by a seeming desire to tell us what
he thought we wanted to hear, Liepnieks provided a good
overview of the Latvian domestic political scene three months
before elections. End summary.


2. (C) Pol/econ chief met with the PM's chief of staff and
chief political advisor, Jurgis Liepnieks, June 30. Although
this was a first meeting, there were no introductory
pleasantries. Liepnieks had arrayed on a table in front of
him a number of spiral bound volumes, which turned out to be
the latest internal polling data for the Prime Minister's
People's Party (TP). Liepnieks immediately pointed to an
open book and said, "Look at this, Aivars Lembergs (Ventspils
mayor, currently under indictment for corruption) is the most
popular politician in Latvia." He then proceeded to show
that in Latvia overall, as well as in three of the five
regions, Lembergs was at the top in survey's on politicians'
popularity. In the other two regions, noted Latvian composer
and TP Member of Parliament Raimonds Pauls tops the list. In
the Latvia-wide survey , others at the top of the list after
Lembergs and Pauls were former Foreign Minister Sandra
Kalniete (New Era (JL)),current Foreign Minister Artis
Pabriks (TP),and Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis (TP).
Liepnieks also pointed out his political patron, former PM
Andris Skele (TP),about halfway down the list and former PM
Einars Repse (JL) about two-thirds of the way down. (Note:
The poll did not include President Vike-Freiberga. Liepnieks
did not provide exact polling figures for any individual, nor
did he provide date of the survey or methodology information.
End note.)


3. (C) Turning to the October parliamentary elections,
Liepnieks said the two parties to watch were the First Party
(LPP) and nationalist Fatherland and Freedom (TB). With LPP,
the question was whether they could clear the five percent
threshold to remain in Parliament. TB, he thought was the
real wild card. Currently with seven seats, they could stay
in the same range or pick up as many as 20 seats. (Note: TB
was the big winner in the 2004 European Parliament elections,
taking four of Latvia's eight seats, when turnout was low.
End note.)


4. (C) In the election campaign, Liepnieks though that the
major Latvian parties would run on the following issues: TP
would focus on results achieved while it was in government;
JL would run on an anti-corruption platform; TB would run a
nationalist campaign; the Greens and Farmers Union (ZZS)
would run on Lembergs' name; and LPP would run on an anti-gay
rights platform. Even with these issues formally setting the
agenda, Liepnieks expected a personality-based campaign, with
heavily negative attack ads framing much of the real
political debate. In the end, Liepnieks assessed, TP, JL,
and ZZS would win about 20 seats each, with another 15 - 20
divided between LPP and TB. The remaining seats in
parliament would be divided among the ethnic Russian or
leftist parties, whom Liepnieks basically dismissed as
irrelevant. This predicted outcome, he said, should allow
for a coalition similar to the current government. Liepnieks
hoped, of course, that Kalvitis would contiune as Prime
Minister.


5. (C) Liepnieks assessed that foreign policy would play
little or no role in the elections, with the exception of
relations with Russia, but even that would be a minor issue.
There is political consensus in Latvia on the value of
relations with the U.S., even among the ethnic Russian
parties, he said. In his view, Latvia's deployment in Iraq
would not be an election issue and no matter the outcome of
the election, renewing the mandate for the deployment in
December would not be difficult. (Comment: He is far too
sanguine on these points, in our view. End comment.)


6. (C) Returning to the issue of Lembergs, Liepnieks thought
that he would not be on the ZZS ticket for parliament, but
that they would announce that he would be their candidate for
PM. (Note: ZZS began floating this idea in the press July 5
and former PM Emsis (ZZS) told us this would be the party's
strategy. End note). No major party in Latvia has ever done
this and Liepnieks wondered how voters would react to not
have the candidate for PM actually on the ballot. No matter
the outcome, he said, the other major parties would simply
not agree to join a government with Lembergs as Prime

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Minister. Asked if ZZS might insist on another ministry for
Lembergs as a condition for joining government, Liepnieks
discounted that possibility, saying Lembergs was not willing
to take the inevitable hits to his personal popularity that
come with a government role unless he could have the top job.


7. (C) Comment: Liepnieks is a purely political animal,
telling p/e chief at one point that if we had questions about
policy issues to see the PM's foreign policy advisor, but
that he would always be willing to talk "personalities and
politics" with us. Throughout the conversation, Liepnieks
was animated, almost jittery, and constantly sketching
possible political scenarios on paper and in his head. Our
relationship with him has been difficult at times. He is a
significant source of leaks from the PM's office, all
designed to score political points, and we sometimes
deliberately work around him on sensitive issues. We take
his political assessments with a grain of salt. We don't
doubt his understanding of Latvian politics, but believe he
was spinning things a bit in the direction he thought we
would want to hear. Certainly, his views on the alleged ease
of renewing the Iraq mandate in December strike us as overly
optimistic. However, his assessment of the main platform
issues of the parties and the negative nature of the campaign
track with what we are hearing elsewhere. Lembergs is the
major wild card in the election given his personal popularity
and it is likely that Liepnieks' almost casual dismissal of
Lembergs playing any role in government was designed to
reassure himself as much as us.
Bailey