NLD RESIGNED ABOUT COERCED RESIGNATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000970

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON PREL BM NLD
SUBJECT: NLD RESIGNED ABOUT COERCED RESIGNATIONS

Classified By: P/E: Mark B. Taylor for Reasons 1.4 (b, d)

1.(C) SUMMARY: NLD leaders continue to dismiss any impact
from the regime's collection of members' resignations, citing
their survival after earlier government-coerced resignations.
However, recent efforts have been more focused and appear
targeted to eliminate the party's structure in several Shan
and Kachin townships. At the same time, articles trumpet the
strength of the government-organized mass member
organization, USDA. The obvious GOB intent is to lay the
groundwork for a USDA "victory" whenever elections may be
scheduled. END SUMMARY

2.(C) State media regularly report on the regime's efforts to
secure the formal resignations of NLD members across the
country. The regime has coerced the resignations over the
years with no apparent geographical priority or order. Media
reports of resignations of groups of 50 to 80 NLD members are
common. NLD estimated its membership at two million in 1990,
when they stopped recruiting.

3.(SBU) More recently, however, the regime has focused on
obtaining the resignations of the NLD's township leadership
in two ethnic majority states. State media in May and June
reported the mass resignation of several NLD township
committees in the Shan and Kachin States. While seldom
citing "committee members," the reports implied these were
the NLD's leaders in the townships by referring to them as
"executives" and the "township original members."

4.(C) In an early July meeting, NLD MP and former NLD Central
Committee member Sai Ohn Maung (strictly protect) confirmed
reports of the coerced resignations of NLD committee members
in the Shan townships of Kalaw and Naungshwe (his home
constituency),in early May. Ohn Maung gave Emboff a copy of
the resignation letter signed by Daw Kyi San, a Naungshwe
committee member. Daw Kyi San explained that government
security officials strongly pressured committee members to
sign the prepared letters. The letter she signed states that
"while it is true that the NLD won a majority in the
election, the NLD has neglected the people's will by
rejecting the National Convention. . .and now asks for a
dialogue with the SPDC, a move that does not make sense."

5.(C) Ohn Maung pointed out the quality of the letter,
produced by computer and ready for signatures with members'
names and national identity numbers. Ohn Maung explained
that, unlike resignations gained with economic incentives,
the government's security personnel used threats of future
harm or other unspecified trouble to obtain the resignations
from NLD committee leaders in Shan townships.

WE HAVE WAYS TO MAKE YOU RESIGN
--------------
6.(C) National and local NLD officials report that the SPDC
has used a wide range of measures to coerce resignations.
The government identifies any vulnerability to exploit as
leverage, stated NLD Central Executive Committee (CEC) member
U Nyunt Wei. He cited the recent experience of a female
township executive committee member in Mandalay Division.
The woman's niece planned to marry a junior police officer,
but the officer's family made the marriage contingent on the
aunt's resignation from the NLD. The aunt ultimately
resigned and is now distraught and sick, claimed U Nyunt Wei.
Cash or business privileges also have been used as
incentives.

CREATING NLD-FREE ZONES?
--------------
7.(C) Sai Ohn Maung, whom the NLD was forced to expel from
the party in 1990, has watched the steady progression of the
regime's campaign to collect resignations of the NLD leaders
in Shan State. He concluded that the SPDC intends to create
"NLD-free" townships, perhaps with the ultimate goal of
declaring Shan state, as well as other states and divisions,
devoid of NLD structures or activity.

8.(C) In a July 5 meeting, NLD CEC Member U Nyunt Wei
acknowledged that the resignations of township committee
members en masse effectively eliminate any NLD structure in
these localities, with few prospects of regeneration. In
parts of the Shan State, the GOB declared villages and
townships "USDA villages" or "USDA townships." He believes
the SPDC seeks as many "NLD-free" townships as possible
before the November 2006 resumption of the National
Convention, at which the USDA may play a greater political
role. Nyunt Wei noted, however, that the regime's success in
obtaining mass resignations of NLD township committee members
in the Shan and Kachin states also reflected the NLD's
limited strength in these states where ethnic political
parties won many of the parliamentary contests in the 1990
elections. The rolling up of township committees in the NLD
stronghold, the central divisions, would be much more
difficult, he declared.

9.(C) COMMENT: The pressure on NLD never eases. At some
level, the military understands that significant popular
support for NLD remains. If they follow through on an
eventual election, they do not want to risk a humiliating
loss as in 1990. So they continue to persecute NLD members
and try to build the aura of popular support for USDA. They
do not appear ready to test the support anytime soon. END
COMMENT
VILLAROSA