NLD AND ETHNICS: DIFFERING VIEWS ON FEDERALISM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000451

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SOCI SNAR EAID BM NLD
SUBJECT: NLD AND ETHNICS: DIFFERING VIEWS ON FEDERALISM

Classified By: APAO KPENLAND FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: During the recent PD-sponsored visit of a
U.S. federalism expert, senior National League for Democracy
(NLD) party leaders asserted that they do not consider ethnic
minority states capable of properly forming and running their
own subnational administrations in a post-transition Burma.
Not surprisingly, a well-connected Kachin youth leader told
us that the top NLD leadership did not respect the ethnic
party leaders, nor did they discuss federalism with the
ethnic parties in preparing for a democratic transition. The
Kachin leader had confidence that Aung San Suu Kyi, if
released, would steer the party toward a federalist system.
Nevertheless, mistrust of NLD's commitment to implementing a
power-sharing system lingers. This lingering mistrust, which
few have seriously addressed in the ethnically and
religiously diverse democratic opposition, facilitates the
military's continued control using divide and rule policies.
END SUMMARY

More Agreement on Federalism than Realized
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2. (C) Professor Alan Tarr from Rutgers University
presented a series of lectures on federalism at the American
Center and in Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin state in
northern Burma, from February 27-March 6. Tarr first
conducted a day-long workshop for second-line leaders of the
NLD and of several ethnic pro-democracy political parties.
The group of fifty included Parliamentarians elected in the
annulled 1990 elections, party spokespersons, and student
activists. Tarr first defined federalism, and described the
different models in place around the world along with the
advantages and disadvantages. The class broke up into
smaller sections to discuss how federalism might work in
Burma. After reassembling, the diverse audience reached
consensus on the following:
--"Burma must have federalism" -- stated by an NLD mid-level
party official;
--Subnational units should have autonomy in the areas of
education, culture, language, health, and environment; and
--A new constitution should outlaw secession, but retain
provisions for a state-wide referendum on separation in the
event of egregious human rights abuses.


3. (C) This consensus on federalism among mid-level NLD and
ethnic leaders represented a major breakthrough in achieving
some consensus on federalism since we began hosting
discussions six months ago on this issue. Initially, the two
groups would not mix or speak to each other. When asked to
write questions on index cards, which were read aloud without
attribution, almost all of the questions posed by the ethnic
leaders to the NLD related to federalism. The second-line
NLD party leaders tried to avoid talking about federalism,
they referred to the more unitary model of China.

A Different Tune from Senior NLD Officials
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4. (C) The Charge held a dinner on March 5 at her residence
for Prof. Tarr and senior members of the NLD. At the dinner,
only the two most senior members of the party's Central
Executive Committee (CEC) spoke: party spokesperson and
Secretary U Lwin and senior economist U Nyunt Wei. CEC

SIPDIS
Members U Than Tun and U Hla Pe, junior spokesperson and
MP-elect U Myint Thein, and MP-elect U Soe Win only listened.



5. (C) U Lwin and U Nyunt Wei doubted Burma could support a
federalist system. Lwin doubted the abilities of the states
to responsibly collect and spend local tax revenues, and
allocate some of the funds to a central authority. Tarr
pointed out that citizens would be more comfortable paying
taxes to local authorities over whom they have sway. U Lwin
did not seem convinced, remarking, "The Kachin count hills
rather than people." U Nyunt Wei spoke even more
pessimistically about the possibilities of federalism in
Burma. Asked by the Charge whether younger NLD members
should be educated in the different models of democratic
government, he said, "No, they just need to learn English."
He then recounted the story of a young man who faithfully
supported the NLD without question, even after being
imprisoned and tortured.


6. (C) NLD officials U Myint Thein and U Soe Win both
attended a "Federalism wrap-up" discussion the morning after
the dinner. During the wrap-up, U Myint Thein complained to
the APAO that ethnic parties want too much power to
self-govern. The APAO pointed out that Arakanese, Shan and
Kachin student activists at the workshop called for states
rights to cover only education, health, environment, culture
and language. But Myint Thein insisted that ethnic parties
wanted more.

Federalism A New Option for the Mobilized Youth in Myitkyina
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7. (C) Over the weekend of March 3-5, Tarr and a PD FSN
specialist flew to Myitkyina to deliver lectures on
federalism to the Myitkyina elders, the KIA delegate to the
National Convention, Kachin Consultative Assembly Youth,
University lecturers, representatives from Naung Nan Baptist
Seminary and Metta, and youths from the Kachin Baptist
Convention. The discussion with the elders, important
decision-makers in Kachin society, evolved slowly as Duwa Zau
Guang first took it upon himself to act as spokesperson.
However, as the meeting continued meaningful discussion
ensued among all participants.


8. (C) Kachin youth seemed to get the most out of the
discussion (septel). Kachin political youth appear more
active and self-confident than other youth groups in the
country. However, according to youth leader Dau Hkaung, the
youth see only two options for their future: a Burmese
democracy in which ethnics have no role or an independent
state formed with ethnic Kachin from neighboring China. Tarr
presented federalism as a third option, stressing it could
only take place under a democracy. He added that a
democratic country, even if not federalist, gives all
citizens a role through voting and participating in the civic
process. The youth listened intently to the lecture, asked
insightful questions, and appeared to accept the idea that
federalism might offer another option for Burma. On
returning from Myitkyina, Tarr said he wished the American
students in his own classes asked as many intelligent
questions as the Kachin youth did.

Muslims Unsure of Relevance
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9. (C) On March 1, Tarr presented a lecture on "Federalism
and Minority Rights" to an audience of about 70 Muslims at
the American Center. While the discussion of federalism
among the ethnic minority groups had been much more dynamic,
with people eager to talk about how it would apply in Burma,
Muslim audiences viewed the lecture as much more abstract and
academic. One audience member asked after the lecture: What
should a people who are restricted in their worship and even
their ability to move about the country consider when
thinking about federalism? Even so, Muslim participants
returned in force for the final evening lecture and accounted
for the largest percentage of the mixed audience.

COMMENT:
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11. (C) Dr. Tarr's intensive 10-day series of lectures,
workshops and discussions on federalism with key members of
the NLD and ethnic political parties, including the youth
wings, student activists, and Muslims, provided new insights
on the importance of federalism as an issue in Burma. The
discussions underscored that the democratic opposition is not
at all united on the political structures that Burma should
adopt in a transition to democracy. The desire for greater
autonomy among the ethnic minorities elicits little sympathy
among the ethnic Burman NLD leaders, who focus on unity. The
mistrust on both sides about the motivations of the other
plays into the hands of the military to keep the democratic
opposition divided. We will continue encouraging discussions
about future political arrangements among the diverse people
we meet to try to open minds and build understanding. END
COMMENT
VILLAROSA