THE DRY ZONE SPILLS OVER: FLOODS, AIDS AND TIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001542

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016
TAGS: EAGR ECON PGOV PHUM PREL GTIP SOCI BM
SUBJECT: THE DRY ZONE SPILLS OVER: FLOODS, AIDS AND TIP


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Classified By: Conoff Walter Parrs III for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Recent heavy rains created havoc across
Burma's central Dry Zone. Dams burst, Mandalay airport's
main access road flooded, and many other roads washed away,
leaving dozens of villagers drowned and transportation
crippled. Excessive rains severely damaged peanut crops, a
primary product of Burma's destitute heartland. The weak
crop forecasts augur a tough year in a region already plagued
by food insecurity. Beyond floods and harvest woes, the Dry
Zone has become a significant source of problems that reach
beyond Burma's borders, including HIV/AIDS transmission and
human trafficking, fueled by migrant labor searching for
better opportunity. End Summary.

The Dry Zone Floods
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2. (U) Over the last few weeks, excessively heavy rains
soaked Burma's central Dry Zone, which typically suffers from
water shortages. On an October 11 to 13 trip to Burma's Dry
Zone, Conoff witnessed the impact of the extreme weather.
Riverbeds that cross main transportation routes overflowed,
blocking use of major roads for days. Runoff created
mudslides and landslides, and homes tumbled down
mountainsides. Travelers from the north reported that two
small dams had burst in the Mandalay area, flooding many
villages and drowning dozens. Another traveler described a
seven hour trip from Mandalay center to Mandalay airport,
using boats and military trucks, a trip that normally takes
one hour. It took eight hours to reach Magwe city instead of
the usual four, and the journey required use of cars,
tractors, buses and rickshaws to ford flooded roads.


3. (U) In addition to the general chaos caused by the rains,
Dry Zone residents suffer from damaging effects on this
season's peanut crop, a mainstay of the Dry Zone's economy.
Farmers in the region explained that excessive rain produced
healthy peanut plants, but the plants then produced virtually
no peanuts. The shortfall has forced local farmers to take
loans from buyers to buy food for the coming months, in hope
that the winter harvest will bail them out of debt. If the
second annual crop doesn't produce, more villagers than usual
will have to leave the area in search of supplemental income
from February to June when the land is too dry to farm.

The Dry Zone's Agrarian Destitution
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4. (U) Agricultural production is insufficient to support the
Dry Zone population, and the shortfall forces residents to
migrate annually in search of additional income. Workers
must move far afield to earn a decent wage. Many travel to
the new capital to work in the construction industry, to
Rangoon to work in teashops, or to the more lucrative border
areas. An average day's labor in the Dry Zone earns about
300 Kyat (less than $0.25) according to the WFP, while work
on the Thai or Chinese border will fetch at least double that
rate, or more. The region gets only a fraction of the
rainfall of the coastal and delta areas, and can only grow a
limited range of crops, specifically peanuts (used
domestically for cooking oil),peas, beans (largely destined
for export),and palm plants with low-value sugar output
(primarily used for palm wine and sugar sticks). Far too
little rain falls to grow rice, and residents must purchase,
not grow, most of their staple foods.


5. (U) Too much or too little rain has a significant impact
on this vulnerable population. With most farmers reliant on
weather-sensitive, non-staple crops, food insecurity is a
constant problem. According to a PACT field representative,

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a typical Dry Zone agrarian family can generate $250.00
annually on a five to fifteen acre farm with livestock,
depending on rainfall. From February to June, scare rainfall
forces many families to leave their fields and homes to move
closer to reliable sources of drinking water.


6. (U) The smaller merchant class is visibly better off: in
the villages, oil and pea brokers display corrugated tin
roofs on their bamboo huts, and in the regional capital of
Magwe, oil and pea wholesalers can achieve Burmese-standard
middle income levels. Conoff spoke with one wholesale
merchant in Magwe whose business is diversified: he will
compensate this year's peanut shortage by buying Dry Zone
beans for shipment to Rangoon and then to India.

The Lure of Distant Lands
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7. (U) Food insecurity and economic hardship are ongoing Dry
Zone issues, and some NGOs seek to assist people with those
needs. Meanwhile, other problems, specifically HIV/AIDs and
human trafficking, are on the rise. Save the Children (STC)
explained that it began its Dry Zone projects because of
disturbing data on high percentages of underweight babies.
Upon arriving in the Dry Zone, STC decided to focus on
HIV/AIDs prevention. The HIV risk in the region is too great
to leave unaddressed, field officers said. Annual labor
migrations and a large student population in Magwe bring the
disease in, propagate it, and disperse it out again with each
year's hot season job hunt.


8. (U) Annual migrations also foster trafficking in persons.
Few organizations now address the issue directly, but
several NGOs explained that a large percentage (up to 40%, by
one unofficial estimate) of Burmese victims of trafficking
originate from the central Dry Zone. Most trafficking
doesn't occur in central Burma, but the conditions that
create vulnerability do, according to a UNDP officer.
Uneducated teens and young adults travel to Rangoon to work
in tea shops, where more lucrative "offers" draw them further
from home. Eventually, a disproportionate number of Dry Zone
natives find themselves victims of trafficking or AIDs in
Thailand or other countries.


9. (C) Comment: Magwe and its predominantly Burman Buddhist
majority experience less political and military activity than
the border zones or Rangoon. Despite this relative quiet,
the region receives no special favors, and is considered
among the poorest areas in Burma, the only central Burman
area in that category. The GOB's mismanagement has
aggravated its vulnerability: controllable floods isolate
towns and overflow dams; food insecurity thrives just upriver
from the country's rice-rich delta; and economic stagnation
prompts outflow of desperate workers. As the HIV/AIDs and
human trafficking issues worsen, the Dry Zone will become a
wellspring for problems that extend far beyond Burma's
borders. End Comment.
VILLAROSA