ELECTION UPDATE: CORREA MOVES INTO SECOND PLACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002309

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL MARR EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: CORREA MOVES INTO SECOND PLACE

REF: STATE 146216

Classified By: PolChief Erik Hall for reasons 1.4 (b&d)


1. (C) Summary: Radical populist candidate Rafael Correa
surged ahead of Social Christian candidate Cynthia Viteri in
recent polls, moving into second place after front-runner
Leon Roldos. With first round presidential elections just a
month away on October 15, undecided voters have declined to
around 50%, and the reduction appears to favor Correa over
Viteri or Roldos. Most polls show Roldos leading with around
20% support, followed by Correa with 15-17%, and Viteri
declining to 13-14%. No candidate is expected to win
outright in the first round; the second round presidential
runoff election will take place between the top two
candidates on November 26.


2. (SBU) Correa's recent visit to New York permitted him to
trumpet his economic nationalist agenda, while accusing the
Minister of Defense, an ally of former president Leon Febres
Cordero, of planning to use the military to commit election
fraud. Correa's rise appears to be rattling the other
front-runners. Roldos changed his campaign manager,
reiterated his pledge not to renew the Manta FOL agreement,
and threatened to terminate the agreement if ATPDEA is not
extended. Rightist candidate Viteri promptly trumpeted her
contacts with the Cuban Ambassador. Meanwhile, key election
contracts have been awarded to Brazil and Spain, not
Venezuela. End Summary.

Correa Moves Into Second Place
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3. (SBU) Recently released presidential polls from several
generally reliable polling organizations show New Country
movement candidate Rafael Correa rising past Viteri into
second place behind front-runner Leon Roldos.

Polls Show Undecided Slowly Declining, Favoring Correa
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4. (SBU) A recent Cedatos poll shows the proportion of
undecided voters has declined from 71% to 55% over the past
six months. This shift coincides with Correa's gradual rise
in the polls. Current poll results (Cedatos, "Informe
Confidencial," and Market):

-- Leon Roldos (22%, 20%, 22.8%)
-- Rafael Correa (17%, 15%, 14.1%)
-- Cynthia Viteri (15%, 13%, 12%)
-- Alvaro Noboa (10%, 11%, 8.1%)
-- Gilmar Gutierrez (N/A, 4%, 2.9%)

Correa's Visit to NYC Gets Attention
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5. (SBU) While visiting New York to meet with overseas
Ecuadorian voters, Correa publicly rejected an FTA with the
United States. He asserted that dollarization had been a
"big mistake," but that he would not reverse it. He said he
would honor "legitimate" foreign debt but pay it back "at
Ecuador's rhythm." Correa also accused new Defense Minister
Marcelo Delgado of planning electoral fraud on behalf of PSC
leader Leon Febres Cordero in the upcoming elections. The
military is charged with providing security for the electoral
process. Delgado and President Palacio immediately refuted
the charge. Correa's campaign is reportedly increasingly
well-funded; supporting that claim, the news director of a
top TV station told us that Correa had booked a week of
prime-time for a new 15-minute biographic spot.

Roldos and Viteri Rattled
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6. (SBU) Viteri made headlines on September 15 by using a
public Internet chat to reveal her positive contacts with
both the U.S. and Cuban Ambassadors. Viteri's comments on
the latter made the headline, when Viteri expressed
confidence that Cuba could help Ecuador improve its literacy
rates (already over 90%). She also affirmed she would
immediately pursue negotiations of an FTA agreement with the
U.S., while considering the benefits of a renewal of the
Manta agreement.


7. (SBU) For his part, Roldos fired his campaign manager and
declared the replacement would pursue a more radical campaign
line. Roldos reiterated to journalists his opposition to
renewal of the Manta FOL accord, and his determination to end
the accord if the U.S. Congress does not renew ATPDEA

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benefits for Ecuador.

Key Election Contracts to Spain and Brazil, not Venezuela
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8. (C) There will be no electronic vote during upcoming
elections, since Brazil's voting machines will be needed in
Brazil during the same time frame. Contrary to early media
speculation, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal did not replace
Brazil's machines with Venezuela's. The Tribunal awarded a
$5.2 m. contract for the quick tabulating of election results
to a consortium called "E-vote," which includes participation
by Brazilian firms Probank and Via Telecom. The Spanish firm
Infoadex, which missed deadlines for quick count reporting in
2002, was awarded a $500K contract to monitor election
campaign spending.

Comment
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9. (C) Correa has successfully positioned himself as the
leading "change" candidate, and his rise appears to be coming
primarily at Viteri's expense. Correa's hard-hitting attacks
on Leon Febres Cordero and his demands for radical change
contrast sharply with Viteri's feel-good campaign spots.
Rather than counter-attacking, Viteri and Roldos appear to be
burnishing their own leftist or nationalist credentials.
JEWELL