ELECTIONS UPDATE: 13 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FINAL

UNCLAS QUITO 002242

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS UPDATE: 13 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FINAL


1. (SBU) Summary: The Constitutional Court on September 6
authorized the candidacies of Lenin Torres (Popular
Participation Revolution Movement) and Bolivarian candidate
Marcelo Larrea (Third Republic Alliance Movement),while
denying two other appeals, bringing down the final number of
presidential tickets to 13 from 17 original aspirants. Polls
of decided voters still show Roldos out front, Cynthia Viteri
in second, and Correa close behind and rising, in third
place. Meanwhile, some disillusioned pressure groups are
urging voters invalidate their ballots for Congress, to
further de-legitimize this troubled democratic institution
and spur political reform. The GOE has officially requested
USG support for the OAS observation mission, and OAS election
monitoring head Rafael Bielsa visited Ecuador this week to
meet the presidential candidates and sign an agreement with
the government. Civil society groups ramped up their
respective efforts to promote electoral debate on issues of
concern, ensure free and transparent elections, and protect
the rights of indigenous and disabled. End Summary.

Presidential List Final at 13
--------------


2. (U) The Constitutional Court on September 6 overturned
the August 23 Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) ruling
precluding Lenin Torres (MRPP) and Marcelo Larrea (MATR) from
competing in the October 15 presidential elections. The
Court ruled that the TSE had no legal basis for eliminating
12,000 petition signatures due to duplication between
independent candidates, and subsequently authorized their
campaigns. The Court denied the appeals of independents
Pedro Roura (MRP) and Marcelo Aguinaga (MCN),for other
technical failures. The list of presidential candidates for
the October 15 elections is now final.


3. (U) Final list of candidates, in roughly declining order
of popularity among decided voters:
-- Leon Roldos (RED/ID),
-- Cynthia Viteri (PSC),
-- Alvaro Noboa (PRIAN),
-- Rafael Correa (PAIS),
-- Fernando Rosero (PRE),
-- Gilmar Gutierrez (PSP),
-- Luis Villacis (MPD),
-- Marco Proano Maya (MRD),
-- Jaime Damerval (CFP),
-- Luis Macas (Pachakutik),
-- Carlos Sagnay (The Eclectic (!) Movement),
-- Lenin Torres (MRPP),
-- Marcelo Larrea (MATR).

Polls: Correa Rising?
--------------


4. (U) A September 2-3 poll conducted by relatively credible
"Informe Confidencial" revealed that while Roldos still leads
the pack, his support has fallen to 19%. Viteri is now in
second with 15% and Correa follows, in a virtual dead heat,
with 14%. Noboa rounds off the top four with 10% while
Gilmar Gutierrez trails in fifth with just 4%.
CEDATOS/Gallup and Market polls show slightly higher numbers
for Roldos. An August 30 CEDATOS/Gallup poll put Roldos at
24%, followed by Viteri with 17%, and Correa trailing with
12%. Noboa and Gutierrez follow with 9% and 7%,
respectively. "Market's" September 2-3 poll showed 24.6% for
Roldos, a virtual tie between Viteri and Correa (13% vs.
12.7%),and Noboa and Gutierrez trailing with 8.5% and 3.4%,
respectively.


5. (U) The number of undecided voters continues to vary
widely but remains high. "Informe Confidencial" reported 62%
of their respondents had not decided on a presidential
candidate, CEDATOS/Gallup 71%, and Market 48.8%.

Nihilist "Vote"
--------------


6. (U) Frustrated with the quality of Congress, some civil
society and political pressure groups are calling on voters
to nullify their ballots for Congress on October 15. Leaders
of the effort ("Honorable Congress", "Common People", TV
personality Carlos Vera, and radical defrocked priest Eduardo
Delgado) hope to pressure the new Congress to immediately
approve a constituent assembly (previously blocked by
Congress) to rewrite the constitution. A recently released
study on democracy conducted by Vanderbilt University, funded
by USAID, found that the National Congress ranks at the
bottom of a list of 22 political institutions in public
confidence (just above political parties).

Second Round Referendum
--------------


7. (U) President Palacio on September 7 reiterated his
August 10 call for a non-binding referendum and announced
that the Ministry of Government and the Presidential
Secretary General of Public Administration were working on

SIPDIS
questions to be presented to voters during the expected
presidential runoff on November 26. Questions will
reportedly be put to voters on education, health, spending of
oil resources, and political reform. The referendum proposal
has not yet been presented to the TSE for approval.

Campaign Spending
--------------


8. (U) Presidential candidates will receive government
funded access to media advertising totaling around $130,760
each. Noboa, however, is being investigated by the TSE for
exceeding overall campaign spending limits by $1.1 m. before
the election campaign period even began (reportedly spending
$3.8 m. thus far). Noboa's camp maintains his pre-campaign
publicity blitz had humanitarian rather than electoral
motives. An unfavorable decision could result in a fine
quadruple the value of Noboa's overspending.

OAS Observation Mission Visit Raises Profile
--------------


9. (U) Chief of the OAS Election Observation Mission (EOM)
Rafael Bielsa visited Ecuador September 5-7 to meet with
presidential candidates individually and to sign an agreement
with the GOE authorizing OAS election observation activities.
After meeting with FM Carrion for the signing ceremony and
with election authorities, Bielsa told the press that
pre-electoral preparations appeared to be going well. OAS
election observers are expected to arrive in Ecuador the last
week in September.

GOE Requests USG Assistance for EOM
--------------


10. (U) On September 1 the Embassy received a diplomatic
note (#36277/06-SM, faxed to WHA/AND) from the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs officially requesting USG support for the OAS
election observation mission for the first round of voting on
October 15. In the note, the GOE expresses confidence that
OAS observation "will constitute an additional guarantee that
the electoral process takes place in a manner which is
democratic and transparent, and in accordance with Ecuadorian
electoral law, thereby helping to strengthen democracy in
Ecuador."

USAID Grantees Active
--------------


11. (U) Volunteers with Citizen Participation (PC),a local
NGO receiving USAID support, were registered by the TSE as
official national observers for both rounds of elections. PC
also signed an agreement with the TSE to observers for
Ecuadorians voting in the diaspora, which they will
coordinate with immigrant associations. PC has scheduled 13
events for citizens to meet their congressional candidates to
discuss key electoral issues in September. PC also plays a
key role in independently monitoring campaign spending,
posting regular reports on the internet that are widely
publicized by the press.


12. (U) The Center for Electoral Promotion (CAPEL),also
with USAID funding, is providing technical assistance and
training to the TSE to prepare over 250,000 poll workers for
election-day. CAPEL is also providing assistance to the TSE
to enhance efforts to encourage voting by persons with
disabilities.


13. (U) The indigenous NGO "Q'ellkaj" Foundation initiated
its own pre-electoral observation program on August 31.
Their efforts will focus on ten cities and rural areas with
significant populations. Nine workshops to train over 200
volunteers will begin in September. Q'ellkaj will also
launch an aggressive radio campaign in indigenous communities
promoting the importance of voting. USAID and the
Netherlands Embassy are supporting the NGO's effort.


14. (U) The Federation of People with Disabilities
(FENEDIF),with USAID support, is poised to launch on
September 7 a project to promote political and employment
rights of people with disabilities, and seeks to increase the
participation of persons with disabilities in the up-coming
elections. FENEDIF has worked closely with the TSE in the
design and production of information, ballots, and training
to assist disabled citizens.


15. (U) Finally, another USAID-supported group, called
"Seventeen Urgent Themes," involves a civil society alliance
of 15 NGOs, and is promoting attention 17 priority issues
(e.g. education, health, political participation, etc.).
Their goal is to encourage presidential candidates to reveal
their positions on all the issues, especially before the
runoff vote in November. The alliance began disseminating
the issues to media outlets in late August, with many
journalists already incorporating the points in interviews.
The group will hold 22 nationwide events to disseminate and
promote their efforts. Five such events have been held and
the rest will be completed in September. The National
Democratic Institute (NDI) will also sponsor a meeting
between the alliance and political parties to promote the
topics.

Comment
--------------


16. (SBU) With the presidential field finally set, and the
formal 45-day campaign period well underway, we are beginning
to see some shifts in the polls, and an emerging tight race
for second place between Viteri and Correa. Most voters,
however, remain undecided, offering hope to all aspirants,
however unlikely. The Court's decision to authorize the
Torres and Larrea could have political motives, to splinter
the leftist vote and thereby favor Viteri. Larrea's Third
Republic Alliance Movement is a new fringe movement largely
without presence in current polls. Larrea's revolutionary
program openly associates itself with Hugo Chavez' brand of
Bolivarianism, in contrast to Correa. Meanwhile, Palacio's
quixotic attempt to force a referendum still seems unlikely
to be approved.
JEWELL