Ecuador Election Update--Six Months Out

UNCLAS QUITO 001157

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

WHA PLEASE PASS TO USOAS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL EC

SUBJECT: Ecuador Election Update--Six Months Out

Ref: Quito 407

Note: This is an action request for WHA and USAID--see last
para.


1. (U) Summary: Six months away from national elections in
October, and three months before candidates formally
register, more than 20 aspirants already crowd the
presidential field and that number is likely to rise.
Former VP Leon Roldos holds a consistent lead in early
polling, but most Ecuadorians are still undecided. Roldos
is followed in the polls by banana magnate Alvaro Noboa and
newly-announced Social Christian candidate Cynthia Viteri.
Former Finance Minister Rafael Correa is seeking indigenous
support and is widely perceived as Chavez' candidate.


2. (U) Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez claims to be running
and retains core support, but may be blocked on
constitutional grounds. Congress has moved to increase
campaign finance limits and select a method for proportional
representation, both important advances. It is currently
debating electoral reforms to block candidates like
Gutierrez, and promote party discipline. New election
authorities have launched a series of initiatives, but need
additional OAS and USG support for training and observation.
End Summary.

Pre-candidates multiplying
--------------


3. (U) Candidates cannot officially register their
candidacies until July 15, but unofficial candidate lists
are growing steadily and now number over 20. Interestingly,
all the top contenders (with the exception of ex-president
Gutierrez) hail from the coastal region; none are from the
highlands. The top contenders include former VP Leon
Roldos, a center-left pragmatist who has allied with the
Democratic Left (ID) party and named a popular and respected
young ID leader, Pichincha Prefect Ramiro Gonzalez, as his
running mate. Thus far, no other candidates have announced
their running mates. Cythia Viteri (PSC) was nominated by
her party in a well-choreographed event in Portoviejo, in
populos Manabi province, on April 28, with rival PSC leaders
Leon Febres Cordero and Jaime Nebot both in attendance.


4. (U) Dark horse populist, anti-American candidate Rafael
Correa is still low in the polls, with less than 10%
support, but is seeking an electoral alliance with the
indigenous Pachakutik movement. The organized indigenous
are divided over whether to support Rafael Correa or to run
their own candidate; CONAIE leaders reportedly oppose such
an alliance, making it less likely to flourish. Humberto
Guillem, the former prefect (U.S. governor-equivalent) of
Manabi province, is trailing far behind as the candidate of
ex-president Abdala Bucaram's discredited Roldosista Party
(not linked to Leon Roldos).


5. (SBU) Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez retains significant
core support among popular sectors and his home Amazonian
region in early polls, but could be blocked from running by
pending legislation in Congress (see below) or by the
electoral commission (TSE). Consecutive re-election is
prohibited by the constitution. Gutierrez argues that his
term was interrupted and therefore his bid is not
consecutive. Some speculate the PSC, which controls the
Constitutional Court, might ultimately support a Gutierrez
candidacy, to undermine the electoral base of Correa.

Polls Show Roldos Maintaining Early Lead
--------------


6. (U) A recent poll by "Informe Confidencial" of residents
of Quito and Guayaquil generally tracks with other early
poll trends, showing Roldos substantially leading the field
in Quito, with 29% support, followed by Viteri (10%) and
Gutierrez (10%),then Noboa (8%) and Correa (8%). In
Guayaquil, Alvaro Noboa leads slightly, with 26%, followed
by Roldos (23%),Viteri (16%),Gutierrez (8%),and Correa
(4%). However, a recent national Cedatos poll showed most
Ecuadorian voters (well over 60%) still undecided on their
preferences at this stage in the race.

Latest Contender: Cynthia Viteri
--------------


7. (SBU) Viteri told the Ambassador on May 2 that her
campaign will be grassroots and emphasize national unity,
appealing to civil society and business groups for support
but avoiding alliances with other parties. She would
emphasize job creation and citizen security over women's
issues, she said, since it was unclear that a female
candidacy would appeal to voters. An appealing and
charismatic candidate in her own right, Viteri suffers from
her close association with discredited party boss Febres
Cordero. She told the Ambassador she hoped to balance the
PSC ticket with a youngish male VP candidate from Quito or
the highlands. (Note: PSC sources tell us this decision
will not be entirely Viteri's, but will be reached with
senior party leaders.)


8. (SBU) Viteri estimated the PSC electoral base to be 11-
12%, and seeks to build on that reach the 19 or 20% needed
to make the second round of voting on November 26,
preferably against Noboa, (everybody's favorite runoff
opponent after two consecutive second-place finishes).
Viteri emphasized to the Ambassador the need for an FTA "on
equal terms" with the U.S., to generate investment and job
creation in Ecuador. She also alleged Correa was receiving
substantial financial assistance for his campaign from
Chavez, and she planned to publicly protest against this
"flagrant interference in Ecuador's internal affairs."

Electoral Proposals Under Debate
--------------


9. (U) After setting aside an electoral reform package
proposed by the executive, Congress is debating its own
proposed electoral reforms including a provision (referred
to popularly as the "muerte politica" or "political death"
clause) which would prevent anyone removed from office
before the end of their term from seeking elected office
again for a set period (the proposal began as a prohibition
for life, but is now down to just six years). If passed,
this would prohibit ex-president Lucio Gutierrez from
participating in this election or next. As currently
formulated, the proposal would affect former congress
members expelled from several major parties as well. Other
elements of the measure would reserve national elected
office for registered political parities only, and would
promote party discipline by stiffening penalties for
disaffiliation once in office. Congress is scheduled to
vote on the bill on May 10, and a modified version of the
bill is expected to pass.


10. (U) Civil society leader Cesar Montufar, former head of
the electoral watchdog NGO "Citizen Participation," is
leading the call for another electoral initiative, referred
to here as the "sixth ballot." If accepted by electoral
authorities, this initiative would place a sixth ballot (in
addition to those for president/VP; congress; Andean
parliament; provincial and municipal councils) asking voters
if they favor one or a series of undefined political
reforms, in general terms (e.g. "do you support reforms to
depoliticize the Supreme Electoral Tribunal"). The
constitution does not provide for this modified referendum,
which would be non-binding on the next government.
Organizers are conducting a march from Quito to Guayaquil to
generate support for the proposal, and to gather citizen
suggestions for questions to put to the voters.

Electoral Process: Challenges, Old and New
--------------


11. (U) Congress finally acted to raise historically low
campaign spending limits, and recently decided on a
proportional representation method. The latter is awaiting
the signature of President Palacio, who is expected to sign.
The method chosen is a complex formula, understood by few,
resulting from the Ecuadorian constitutional guarantee that
voters may select candidates by party list or individually.
Proposed by an obscure Ecuadorian mathematician, German
Rojas, TSE officials complain the formula will be
complicated to administer and will require a thorough
understanding by polling booth workers.


12. (U) TSE president Xavier Cazar told AID Director and
PolChief on April 28 that the TSE had made progress but
faced difficult budgetary and other constraints.
Registration of 141,407 Ecuadorian voters abroad had
exceeded all expectations and stretched Ecuador's consulates
to the limit. Most of these voters (82%) registered to vote
in Europe, especially Spain with 89,000--only 16,000
registered in the United States. Here at home, the TSE had
invited the OAS to send an observation mission, and approved
international observation proposals from the EU and CAPEL,
and domestic observation by two Ecuadorian NGOs receiving
AID support: "Citizen Participation" and the indigenous
"Quel'qaj Foundation."


13. (U) Cazar said the TSE is working well with disabled
citizens to ensure special attention, a claim corroborated
by our contacts. Braille ballots will be made available for
blind voters for the first time. Cazar requested ($650,000)
in USG support to the CAPEL, for training of election
workers at all levels. Cazar also asked the USG to help
close a $40,000 budget gap to meet the needs of disabled
voters.

Action Request
--------------


14. (U) AID has only $250,000 in unrestricted Development
Assistance funds available to provide support to the TSE.
AID also has additional funds to promote electoral
inclusiveness, including for the disabled. To ensure that
Ecuador's poll workers are able to administer free, fair and
inclusive elections, we request additional DA funding to
support the TSE to provide electoral training, as requested
by the electoral tribunal.

JEWELL