2006-2007 NEW HORIZONS UNCERTAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 001037

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2014
TAGS: MARR MOPS SNAR PTER PGOV EAID EC
SUBJECT: 2006-2007 NEW HORIZONS UNCERTAIN

REF: A. QUITO 1307

B. QUITO 1368

C. QUITO 1399

Classified By: Jarahn Hillsman, Reasons 1.4 (b&d)


1. (C) Summary: After reviewing the history of the last
planned New Horizons exercise canceled at the eleventh-hour
in 2004, and taking into account the current political
situation, this Embassy recommends that the Department and
SOUTHCOM consider postponing the 2006-2007 New Horizons
humanitarian exercise for political reasons, and revisit the
issue again in 2007, for possible execution in 2008. We
remain concerned that 2006 presidential elections, chronic
political instability, and growing nationalistic rhetoric
against USG interests in Ecuador might again derail
successful execution of the exercise.
Ministry of Defense and Foreign Affairs officials agree
informally that the issue should be deferred for the next
government, entering office in January 2007. End Summary.

Background
--------------


2. (C) GOE eleventh-hour concerns over public perception of
armed U.S. military personnel in Ecuador and their potential
connection to Plan Colombia in 2004 forced the Embassy to
recommend cancellation of the New Horizons 2004 exercise
planned for Loja province. The GOE insisted that the 350
SOUTHCOM combat engineers would need congressional approval
to enter Ecuadorian territory armed, and Congress was certain
not to approve. SOUTHCOM officially canceled the exercise on
May 5, 2004 (Ref A,B,C).


3. To gauge GOE willingness to host a New Horizons exercise,
we have informally engaged MOD and MFA officials on this
issue.

MOD Urges Postponement
--------------


4. (SBU) Although supportive of a New Horizons humanitarian
mission to Ecuador, Minister of Defense Oswaldo Jarrin
strongly suggested that we consider rescheduling planning to
2007 and execution in 2008. Recognizing that presidential
and congressional elections scheduled for late 2006 will
likely bring considerable changeover within the GOE, MOD
officials believe reengaging under the new administration
would be more effective.

MFA Positive on New Horizons
--------------


5. (C) MFA Director General for Border Relations with Peru
Jorge Maldonado also suggested to PolOff that we postpone
planning for the exercise until after the new government
takes office. Maldonado believes the exercise could be
designed to complement Ecuador's bilateral cooperation with
Peru and said he would coordinate with MFA U/S for National
Sovereignty Ambassador Diego Stacey once the proposal is
formally received.

Embassy Recommends Delay
--------------


6. (C) The political climate for a cooperative exercise has
worsened since the New Horizons cancellation in 2004. The
current government is inherently weaker than Gutierrez'. As
a result, the Palacio government is hostage to sovereignty
sensitivities and likely to seek any excuse to cancel. The
high visibility of a New Horizons mission to Ecuador and its
potential perceived linkage to Plan Colombia could be
politicized in this election year. Given these concerns,
the Embassy recommends that the Department and SOUTHCOM delay
the 2006-2007 New Horizons, revisiting the proposal again in
2007 after the new government has had time to establish
itself.
JEWELL