QUEBEC SOVEREIGNTY MOVEMENT ADRIFT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUEBEC 000053

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV ECON CA
SUBJECT: QUEBEC SOVEREIGNTY MOVEMENT ADRIFT

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CLASSIFIED BY: Abigail Friedman, Consul General, Quebec City,
State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (sbu) Summary: PM Harper's "open federalism" comes at a
propitious time: sovereignty is not dead in Quebec, but it is in
remission. After four decades of struggle, two failed
referendums and drawn out constitutional battles, a general
sense of weariness seems to have settled in among a certain
class of Quebec sovereigntists. A generation of voters, whose
vision of an independent Quebec was based on a left-leaning
ideology of identity, cultural and linguistic pride, and control
over one's political destiny, is today expressing doubt. Others
resent efforts to turn Quebec independence into a purely
economic debate. All this being said, the pro-sovereignty Parti
Quebecois (PQ) remains very popular, in good part because
Premier Charest's liberal government is not. End summary.


2. (u) Recently, there were at least two highly public
manifestations of the unease of long-time sovereigntists over
where the independence movement in Quebec is headed: one came
from highly-acclaimed Quebec author Michel Tremblay, at one time
an icon of the Quebec independence movement who snubbed the
Order of Canada. In an interview April 9, Tremblay hit a
sensitive political nerve when he stated he was unable to relate
to a project whose main justification has become economic; an
ideological shift, he said, merely to win elections. Shortly
after, internationally renowned Quebec playwright Robert Lepage
made similar comments that he was "less convinced" that Quebec
should separate from the rest of Canada.


3. (u) Reaction to both declarations, coming from two cultural
heroes, was swift and at times hostile, particularly among the
Quebec literati. Former PQ Premier Bernard Landry reportedly
declared he would boycott Michel Tremblay's plays. Several
authors expressed outrage at what in Quebec intellectual circles
seems close to treason. A political columnist wryly noted that
"in Quebec, an artist is a sovereigntist not a federalist," and
that it was "probably easier for Michel Tremblay to come out of
the closet as a homosexual 30 years ago than to declare himself
a doubtful sovereigntist today." In fact, Tremblay and Lepage
articulated two very different yet commonly heard trends. While
Lepage seemed to question the relevance of sovereignty itself,
Tremblay was critical of the way in which sovereignty is being
pitched.


4. (c) Former Quebec mayor Jean Paul L'Allier - a dyed in the
wool sovereigntist, or so we thought - surprised CG when he told
her that he, too, could not support sovereignty based upon an
economic argument. What L'Allier, Tremblay and others are
attacking is a PQ strategy, begun by former PM Landry and
continued under Boisclair, of trying to win Quebeckers over to
sovereignty by arguing that only then would "Quebec have the
financial room for maneuver to invest in favor of its
priorities." This economic basis for sovereignty took off after
the 1995 referendum, when polls suggested many Quebeckers feared
they would be economically less well off in an independent
Quebec. Today, in the context of PM Harper's "open federalism,"
the economic argument for sovereignty may be backfiring, as
Quebeckers believe that Ottawa is indeed prepared to offer
Quebec a better financial relationship.


5. (u) Lepage's critique of the sovereigntists appears more
damning as he suggests that the situation in Canada and Quebec
has changed, making sovereignty less essential nowadays. A
number of media commentators assert that Lepage was merely
saying out loud what many sovereignists are feeling inside: that
Quebec society has evolved and Canadian nationalism, in a global
context, also has changed. We have heard this argument from a
number of our own contacts as well, who tell us they were once
firm sovereigntists but that conditions in Canada today are
different. "Just look at the Olympics," one person told us,
"almost every Anglophone Canadian athlete who won an award
responded in French to interviews. This wouldn't have happened
thirty years or forty years ago." Francophone Montrealers
remind us that there were entire shopping districts they never
entered in their youth, as francophone Quebeckers were unwelcome
clientele. Today, thanks to the effects of the French Language
Charter, Bill 101, few Quebecers seem to feel a real threat to
their identity. If anything, they are insisting that their
children have the opportunity to grow up fully bilingual and
able to compete in the North American job market.


6. (u) Sensitive to changing public attitudes, pro-sovereignty
leaders Andre Boisclair and Gilles Duceppe were careful not to
overreact to Tremblay and Lepage's public confessions. Duceppe
contacted Tremblay personally to reassure the playwright of his
personal support despite Tremblay's political uncertainties.
Boisclair, for his part, told journalists the redefinition of
the sovereignty movement is a healthy process and does not mean
one has to renounce one's convictions.

Comment
--------------


7. (c) Into all of this comes the election of Stephen Harper,
with his talk of "open federalism" and of righting the fiscal

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imbalance. Much like the election of Brian Mulroney and his Big
Blue Machine in 1984, Harper and his progressive conservatives
have opened the door to a possible new partnership between
Ottawa and the provinces that could further diminish the
sovereignist fervor in Quebec. At a time of political
uncertainty and transition in Quebec, Harper is giving
Quebeckers a sense of direction. Many here feel the new open
federalism touted by Harper is worth exploring. For this
reason, we expect that Harper will have a longer than usual
honeymoon period in Quebec.


8. (c) Two important caveats are worth noting: First, Premier
Jean Charest has failed miserably in overcoming public
dissatisfaction toward himself and his government. As a result,
the PQ is ahead in the polls and could very well win the next
election. Second, if the PQ wins and calls another sovereignty
referendum, we would expect sovereigntists to vote yes despite
their current grumbling and professed rejection of the movement.
Where their grousing will have an impact, however, is on those
Quebeckers who are undecided about sovereignty and who would
presumably need wooing. With such a slim margin between the
"yes" and the "no" camps in Quebec, inspiring swing voters is
where the entire referendum game would play out, and it is here
where the sovereigntists are presently losing ground.
FRIEDMAN