CHAREST THRONE SPEECH GIVES NO LIFT TO HIS GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUEBEC 000034

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV ECON CA
SUBJECT: CHAREST THRONE SPEECH GIVES NO LIFT TO HIS GOVERNMENT


CLASSIFIED BY: Abigail Friedman, Consul General, Quebec City,
State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: Quebec Premier Jean Charest kicked off a new
session at the National Assembly March 14 with a 90 minute
Throne Speech (the first since he took office in 2003) that set
the tone for the looming electoral campaign. Charest's main
focus for the coming year will be the reduction of the
province's debt load, health and education, energy, the
environment, and improved federal-provincial relations.
Charest's new energy policy, to be unveiled in full in the
coming weeks, includes an increase in the production and
development of hydroelectric power and, mot importantly, a
commitment to raise exports both to the U.S. and the rest of
Canada. Most here, including the opposition, agree with the
policy direction outlined by the Premier. The real problem for
Charest is the overwhelming lack of public confidence in his
leadership. Charest's speech coincides with a new poll
suggesting the PQ would effortlessly beat the Liberals in an
election 43-32%. This does not mean that a yearning for
sovereignty is on the rise -- indeed, that has ebbed since the
advent of the Harper government - but rather that, as witnessed
across Canada in the January federal election, the mood here is
for change. End Summary.

2. (U) In his address inaugurating the 37th legislature,
Premier Charest vowed foremost to control the provincial debt
that presently rests at CDN $117 billion and whose interest
alone reaches $7.5 billion annually -- the third most important
provincial budgetary expenditure after health and education. To
do so, the GOQ will create a new "Fund for the Generations," to
be laid out in the provincial budget to be tabled March 23, and
whose sole objective will be to slash the debt. Charest
promised that debt reduction would not be at the expense of the
health system nor increase Quebeckers' tax burden. Among some
of the other initiatives the Premier said his government will
rollout over the coming months:
-- a new energy strategy centering on hydroelectricity and wind
power
-- public hearings on long term public financing of the health
system
-- electoral reform to introduce proportional vote
-- a new international affairs policy to strengthen Quebec's
role abroad
-- changes to the Code of Professions to recognize foreign
degrees and allow more immigrants to work in the province


3. (U) The province's much anticipated energy policy will be
tabled in the weeks ahead by Natural Resources Minister Pierre
Corbeil and will drive Quebec's sustainable development efforts
over the next 10 years. Charest said the plan will involve all
forms of energy sources making Quebec the North-American leader
in clean, renewable energies. He promised a new commitment
toward hydroelectric production and development with the
completion of projects at Mercier, Eastmain 1, Peribonka,
Rapide-des-Coeurs, and Chutes Allard, supplying an extra 1000 MW
of electricity to the grid, and the construction of the Eastmain
1-A/Rupert site that will add another 900 MW. Increased wind
power development throughout the province will also bring in
another 3500 MW. Quebec's ultimate goal is to be able export
power to the U.S. and to neighboring Canadian provinces all year
round.


4. (U) Following Charest's speech, PQ chief Andre Boisclair
told the media he was unimpressed with the Liberal leader's
"long and boring" speech. Charest's main problem, Boisclair
scoffed, is his "deficit of credibility." The PQ leader agreed
that creating a deficit fund is a "reasonable proposal," and
noted that he himself made a similar pitch during the recent PQ
party leadership race. But Charest has been in office for three
years and has failed to deliver on a host of promises, including
lowering taxes. Responding to Charest's criticism of the PQ
desire for another referendum, Boisclair reiterated his
commitment to holding a third popular vote on the sovereignty
option. Right-of-center ADQ leader Mario Dumont, for his part,
said Charest's inaugural speech sounded like "a commercial to
sell a product that everyone knows is defective.... We saw a
weak Premier at work, with tired ideas, and afraid of change."


5. (SBU) Newspaper editorials the following day by and large
came to the same conclusion as the opposition, although with a
softer touch. Most media outlets concurred that the Premier's
speech sets the right course for Quebec, but wondered whether
the Charest government's penchant for mishandling local issues
-- most recently, the GOQ's decision to sell to developers a
portion of a provincial park - would undermine his ability to
move forward with his agenda. We are hearing the same doubts
expressed by members of Charest's own party. A fresh poll
published March 15 in the Journal de Quebec/Montreal shows the
Liberals trailing 11 percentage points behind the Parti
Quebecois. The PQ received 43 per cent support, compared with
32 per cent for the Liberals, 11 per cent for the ADQ and six
per cent for the new left-wing Quebec Solidaire party.

Comment
--------------

6. (C) Public opposition to Premier Charest's leadership
continues to hover at around seventy percent. The lift he
obtained from the election of the Harper government vanished
with the GOQ's controversial announcement of the sale to
developers of large tracts of Mont Orford provincial park.
Judging by the comments of our contacts and the media, the
Throne speech, while welcomed on substance, does not seem to
have turned things around for Charest. His strongest card - and
one that he is already playing - is to put the focus on the PQ,
which continues to tout a sovereignty referendum that few seem
interested in ("It's like going to the dentist," one politician
told us). But that, in itself, may not be enough to save
Charest, as Quebeckers over the years have gotten used to voting
in the PQ, and then voting against a referendum.
FRIEDMAN