QUEBEC RELEASES FLU PANDEMIC EMERGENCY PLAN

UNCLAS QUEBEC 000033

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON CA
SUBJECT: QUEBEC RELEASES FLU PANDEMIC EMERGENCY PLAN


1. Summary: Provincial Health Minister Philippe Couillard
unveiled Quebec's Avian Flu strategy at a press conference,
March 9. Quebec's plan addresses the protection of public
health; medical care; psycho-social welfare; communication and
information; and the functioning of the health system in a
pandemic situation. It also provides a framework for regional
and municipal authorities to submit specific local plans. The
Health Minister assured Quebeckers that the province is not in a
pandemic situation but that emergency planning is part of
responsible government. The high visibility roll-out is only in
part an indication of GOQ concern over Avian Flu -- it also
reflects Premier Charest's strategy of raising the profile of
his government's "success" stories in advance of an election
which could come early next year. End summary.


2. Popular Health Minister Philippe Couillard, a physician
himself, rolled-out Quebec's Avian Flu strategy at a special
press conference March 9, broadcast live on Quebec's all-news
television network. In what he called a "critical but plausible"
Avian Flu pandemic scenario, Couillard estimated that up to 35
percent of Quebec's 7.7 million inhabitants could potentially
fall sick in successive waves over an eight to fifteen week
period. Of these, 1.4 million might require professional help,
and 34,000 would need hospitalization. The death toll might
reach as high as 8,500. 75-80% of Quebecers would need to be
immunized, requiring 11-14 million doses of vaccine. A vaccine
could not be developed until the human version of the flu starts
claiming victims, and a minimum of 3-4 months would be required
to develop the vaccine, with at least another month to
administer it.


3. To help manage the situation, Quebec officials have already
been drawing up lists of thousands of retired or inactive staff
and volunteers from the general population who could be drafted
to help out in the event of a pandemic. The Quebec provincial
plan foresees the recruitment of up to 80,000 people to help
maintain services. Couillard cited the SARS episode in pointing
out the need to prevent health care centers from being
themselves immobilized from infection, and said alternative care
centers would be employed. Couillard estimated that an Avian Flu
pandemic could cost the health system approximately CDN $250
million. The economic impact, he acknowledged, would be even
greater.


4. Couillard emphasized the critical role of the media in a
pandemic situation in passing on accurate and reliable
information while steering clear of alarmist scenarios. He
cautioned against the propagation of self-proclaimed experts
giving out erroneous information and he urged the media to
consult health officials directly for accurate data. Quebec will
also rely on locally elected officials to clearly communicate
information to the public in their respective regional
districts. Couillard's warning echoed that of the Premier who,
in a media interview a few days before, highlighted his
preoccupation with the role of the media if and when confronted
with an outbreak. "It is easy to become sensationalist about
it. My wish is that the media act in a rigorous way."


5. The GOQ roll out and full media coverage are raising public
awareness of the risk of Avian Flu. Le Soleil editorialized that
GOQ planning should reassure citizens. Montreal's La Presse
also commented positively, devoting two full pages to the GOQ
plan with the title and subtitle: "Government prepares itself
for the worst. An initiative welcomed by people working in the
health sector." Other Quebec papers also led with the Quebec
plan and examined the potential shortfalls in antiviral pills
and protective masks, predictions of infection statistics,and
the cascading negative economic impact.


6. Comment: The GOQ is taking the Avian Flu risk seriously.
In our discussions of Avian Flu with Quebec officials, we have
been given every indication that the needs of Quebeckers and of
Americans in Quebec will be responsibly addressed. Dr. Arthur
Porter, Director General and Chief Executive Officer at McGill
University Health Center, told Montreal's CG that his team is
ready to treat "any potential cases of avian flu," adding that
symptomatic patients usually stay where they are to be treated
locally.
Couillard delivered a confident public message that Quebec's
health and civil security networks are systematically preparing
for a possible pandemic outbreak.


7. Comment (con't.): Politically, Quebec Premier Charest chose a
highly visible roll-out of his government's Avian Flu strategy
only in part because of the importance of the subject matter.
Charest also is in an election mode, and he has planned a series
of such policy rollouts in the months to come. On March 14, he
will give a major policy speech at the National Assembly, seen
here as another opportunity for him to set the tone in advance
of an election.

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