KOSOVO: SEJDIU AHEAD IN THE HOME STRETCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRISTINA 000967

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR DRL, INL, AND EUR/SCE, NSC FOR BRAUN, USUN FOR
DREW SCHUFLETOWSKI, USOSCE FOR STEVE STEGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV KJUS KCRM EAID KDEM UNMIK YI
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: SEJDIU AHEAD IN THE HOME STRETCH


Classified By: COM TINA KAIDANOW FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With all local branch elections now
complete, Kosovo President Fatmir Sejdiu has a comfortable
majority of delegates to be elected president of the ruling
Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK). Sejdiu's chief rival,
disgraced former Assembly Speaker Nexhat Daci, trails by a
wide margin. We hear disconcerting reports that Daci
supporters continue to pressure delegates to switch their
allegiance from Sejdiu to Daci, but are reasonably confident
this will not affect the outcome. The date of the LDK
convention has not yet been set; though Minister of Culture
and LDK Presidency member Astrit Haraqija has suggested the
party hold the convention on December 23, the party's 17th
anniversary, other more authoritative figures suggest it will
be held in the first two weeks of December. Sejdiu, who
cannot be both the President of Kosovo and LDK party leader,
will most likely relinquish day-to-day party duties, and most
think first deputy LDK president and Prizren Mayor Eqrem
Kryeziu will take on that role. END SUMMARY.

Sejdiu Has The Delegates


2. (SBU) After nearly two months of elections in party
branches, sub-branches, and "actives," Kosovo President
Fatmir Sejdiu has, by our count, secured the support of 200
of the 344 delegates selected thus far. There will be 356
delegates total and, though estimates vary, most predict that
Sejdiu has already surpassed the 179 (50 percent plus one)
required to win the party presidency. Ousted Kosovo Assembly
president Nexhat Daci has 111 delegates, and 32 others are
undecided, while the results of diaspora branch elections,
with 12 delegates total, are still unknown.

Daci Appears Defeated, Gashi Tries to Run


3. (SBU) Despite the best efforts of Daci's thugs to
intimidate delegates since the process began in September--
some branch elections had to be re-run and/or were disrupted
violently -- no one seriously doubts that Sejdiu will be
elected the next president of LDK. In related news, recent
media reports suggest that LDK caucus head Alush Gashi has
thrown his hat in the ring and is attempting, with limited
success thus far, to drum up support to run as a candidate at
the convention. (Comment: LDK internal rules say any
candidate must collect the signatures of at least 100
delegates, making Gashi's candidacy a highly unlikely
prospect. End Comment.)

Convention Timing


4. (SBU) There is no strict rule on the timing of the LDK
convention, but the party's Steering Council recommended it
be within a month of the last branch election, which would
put it in the second week of December. Minister of Culture
and LDK Presidency member Astrit Haraqija has suggested the
party hold the convention on its 17th anniversary, December
23, which would give both candidates six weeks to prepare for
the convention vote. Other, more authoritative LDK figures,
however, including Sejdiu's adviser Skender Hyseni,
understand the value of holding the convention while Sejdiu's
support is running strong, and say it will likely be held the
first week or two in December. Delegates at the convention
will also elect an 81-member policy-making steering council.

Kryeziu As Sejdiu Stand-In?


5. (C) Under Kosovo's Constitutional Framework, the same
person may not serve as both party president and president of
Kosovo. If Sejdiu wins, he will likely choose to remain
president of Kosovo. In a similar situation, the late Kosovo
President Ibrahim Rugova, given his stature, "froze" the
position of LDK president and essentially ran both the party
and Kosovo. Sejdiu would not be able to do this, but would
likely relinquish day-to-day duties to the first deputy
president, also to be voted on at the convention. Most think
Prizren Mayor Eqrem Kryeziu, currently first deputy
president, will be re-elected and take on this role. Other

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possible contenders for the three deputy president positions
include LDK Presidency member and MP Sabri Hamiti, Deputy
Prime Minister and Minister of Local Government Lutfi Haziri,
and Assembly Speaker Kole Berisha.


6. (C) COMMENT: Although not a pretty sight, local LDK
branch elections have finally been completed and the outcome
appears clearly in favor of the moderate, unifying figure of
President Sejdiu. That is good news. The convention
hopefully will produce an LDK ceasefire during the critical
months before final status resolution. But it is unclear
whether President Sejdiu (or his surrogate) can unite the
fractured LDK party, still struggling to find itself in the
aftermath of President Rugova's death. END COMMENT.


7. (SBU) U.S. Office Pristina clears this cable in its
entirety for release to U.N. Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari.
YAZDGERDI