KOSOVO: COM URGES CALM, CAUTION AMONG KOSOVAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRISTINA 000847

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, NSC FOR BRAUN, USUN FOR DREW
SCHUFLETOWSKI, USOSCE FOR STEVE STEGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL UNMIK YI
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: COM URGES CALM, CAUTION AMONG KOSOVAR
LEADERS AMONG RUMORS OF DELAY IN STATUS PROCESS


Classified By: COM Tina S. Kaidanow for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) With rumors swirling of a delay in the status process
and statements by EU High Representative Solana and UN
Special Envoy Ahtisaari appearing to confirm these
speculations, COM counseled calm among Kosovar Albanian
leaders the week of October 2. Meeting with the Prime
Minister, the parliament Speaker, the President, and
opposition leader Thaci, all members of the neogitating team,
COM noted there was no delay formally agreed, but cautioned
against "year-end ultimata" to the international community
that would box Albanian leaders into a corner and undermine
their own aspirations. With Thaci, she underscored that any
move to abandon the Unity Team at this critical juncture in
hopes of bringing down the Kosovar government would confirm
the skepticism of those in the international community who
doubted the political maturity of the Kosovar Albanians, and
could bring the whole status process to a halt. Thaci agreed
to stay within the Team, a promise he made good on the
weekend of October 7, when he convinced his party presidency
to vote overwhelmingly in favor of the negotiations. Still,
anxiety is in the air among all Kosovo's leaders with regard
to the status timeline; their concerns have been assuaged for
the moment but they will need clear indications of where the
process is going in order to maintain an air of confidence
for their party memberships and their people over the next
few months. End Summary.

COM to Prime Minister, President, Parliament Speaker: Be
Calm, Avoid Ultimata


2. (C) In separate meetings throughout the week of October
2, COM met with key Kosovar leaders to counter the confusion
and anxiety surrounding press assertions that the status
process could be delayed by weeks or months as a consequence
of the Serbian election calendar. With the possibility that
any of the leaders might choose to make public comments
counter-productive to the status process, and with reports
that opposition leader Thaci was already threatening to walk
out of the Unity Team and bring down the government as a
result of the delay rumors, COM underscored to all that calm
and caution should be their watchwords. She stressed that
there was no formal decision on delay, but that, given the
uncertainties involved, it made no sense to issue ultimata to
the international community on a year end resolution to
status. By talking about the possible negative consequences
of delay in Kosovo and particularly by doing so in a
provocative way, COM pointed out, Kosovar leaders would
confirm the worst fears of those in the international
community who doubted their ability to maintain stability and
demonstrate leadership even under difficult circumstances.
They would also make it far more difficult for themselves in
explaining any delay, should it occur, to their people.


3. (C) Prime Minister Ceku, Speaker Berisha and President
Sejdiu all concurred, agreeing to express their hope for a
year-end resolution in a measured way publicly. Convening a
meeting with international liaison representatives on October
5 (reported septel),Prime Minister Ceku made it clear he
would prefer no delay, but underscored the flexibility of the
Unity Team, urging only that if there must be a delay, the
international community consider pushing off implementation
of the settlement rather than the status announcement itself.
All three Kosovar leaders, however, as well as opposition
party head Thaci (and Unity Team coordinator Blerim Shala),
implored the Contact Group and particularly the U.S.
government not to leave them hanging at year's end and to
help soften the blow for their constituencies if a delay
became inevitable.

COM to Thaci: Stay in the Game, Don't Provoke Instability


4. (C) COM had a lengthy conversation with PDK president
Hashim Thaci on October 5, after reports surfaced that he had
openly threatened to walk out of the Unity Team and intensify
attacks on the Kosovar government in an effort to unseat the
Prime Minister and install himself in the job. COM made the

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same points on the avoidance of provocative actions to Thaci
as she had to the other leaders, but emphasized even more
strongly the importance of unity among the Team and the
extreme negative consequences for status if the negotiating
group fell apart. She made it plain to Thaci that while the
U.S. could not support an upheaval in the government at this
critical juncture (a point that a ranking French diplomat had
made earlier in the week to Thaci, as well),there would be
plenty of time for the PDK to make its case to the Kosovar
electorate in the coming months, and bringing down the status
process would not earn Thaci any credit with the
international community or his potential Kosovo supporters.
Thaci, though unrepentant in his desire to get himself into
office as soon as possible, conceded that this was not the
time to walk away from the Unity Team and promised COM he
would recommit himself to the process. (Thaci made good on
his word two days later, when after a seven-hour meeting with
his party presidency, he emerged with an overwhelming vote in
favor of continuing the negotiations.) He also promised to
appear jointly with President Sejdiu and the Unity Team on
television and in sensitive municipalities in order to sell
the decentralization concept -- again fulfilling his word by
meeting October 6 with Sejdiu and offering his cooperation in
person.

Comment


5. (C) By week's end, a measure of calm had been restored
among Kosovo's leaders, and the Unity Team remained pasted
together if only by a mixture of tough messages and cajoling
from COM. The Kosovars are reluctantly coming to accept that
there may have to be a delay of some length in the status
determination, but they are deeply afraid of bringing that
news to their people and they will look for any cover
available to make the delay palatable. With an effective
hiatus in the negotiation process (at least insofar as active
negotiating sessions on decentralization and community rights
are concerned),there is also more time for mischief among
the Unity Team's members and far greater temptation for Thaci
to jump ship and blame the government for the delay. We will
bring all our leverage to bear in avoiding this outcome, but
will need Washington's help in crafting meaningful
reassurances, preferably delivered by high-level visitors in
the weeks preceding the end of the year. End Comment.


6. (U) U.S. Office Pristina does not/not clear this cable
for release to U.N. Special Envoy for Kosovo Martti Ahtisaari.
KAIDANOW