KOSOVO: ACHIEVING CONSENSUS ON ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 001075

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR DRL, INL, AND EUR/SCE, NSC FOR BRAUN, USUN FOR
DREW SCHUFLETOWSKI, USOSCE FOR STEVE STEGER
VIENNA FOR BRAD BELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2016
TAGS: KDEM PHUM PGOV EAID UNMIK YI
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: ACHIEVING CONSENSUS ON ELECTIONS


Classified By: COM TINA KAIDANOW FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Kosovo will hold central and local elections
next fall under a new post-status electoral system. Results
of our initial canvassing of Kosovo's political parties,
elections experts and public opinion polling reveal a general
consensus on the need for open lists, retention of a gender
requirement, and direct election of mayors. Many Kosovars
also appear to favor separate central and local elections,
though our feelings differ on this issue. While Kosovars are
eager for elections that will make more transparent both
local and central political representation, there are
conflicting views on the question of Kosovo-wide versus
multi-district parliamentary elections. Achieving consensus
among Kosovo's main political parties is our top priority;
consequently, we will not advocate a particular electoral
model except insofar as the Ahtisaari settlement requires
certain elements be included in a Kosovo election law. END
SUMMARY.

ELECTIONS TIMING


2. (U) By UNMIK regulation, Kosovo holds local municipal
elections every four years, and central elections every
three. In June 2006, the previous SRSG, Soren
Jessen-Petersen, postponed municipal elections scheduled for
autumn 2006. According to the decision, municipal elections
should be held within a window of no earlier than three
months before and no later than six months after the UN
Security Council makes its determination on Kosovo's final
political status, but in no circumstances later than October

2007. Elections for members of the Kosovo Assembly should be
held in fall 2007 when the mandate of the current Assembly
expires. These deadlines, of course, may be altered by the
provisions of the Ahtisaari settlement, but as of now they
stand unchanged.


3. (U) USOP canvassed political party leaders, international
electoral experts, and others to determine trends in
electoral preferences. We spoke with Alliance for the Future
of Kosovo (AAK)'s Minister Ardian Gjini and caucus leader
Gjylnaze Syla; Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK)'s Central
Elections Committee (CEC) delegate Blerim Grainca; Reform
Party (ORA)'s caucus leader Teuta Sahatqija and spokesman
Ylli Hoxha; Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK)'s CEC delegate
Xhelil Pajaziti, PDK women's caucus leader Flora Brovina, and
MP and former Prime Minister Bajram Rexhepi; OSCE Elections
assistant director Ovidiu Criau; the elections expert from
the KIPRED think tank Leon Malazogu; and International
Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) chief of party
Dickson Bailey.

OPEN LISTS


4. (C) To this point, the OSCE has run Kosovo's elections and
all have been judged to comply with international standards
for fairness. They have been conducted, however, based on
closed lists developed by central party bosses with little
input from party rank and file. Open candidate lists enjoy
significant local support here. Kosovo civil society views
open lists as an essential component of electoral systems.
Reforma, a broad NGO coalition movement, advocated for open
lists in the central elections of 2004, although in the end
UNMIK decided on closed lists in order to protect gender
representation. Some sitting politicians support it as well:
Ardian Gjini, AAK Presidency member and Minister of
Environmental and Spatial Planning, privately told us the
democratic change offered by open lists would benefit Kosovo,
even though it would not benefit him personally since his
relationship with AAK party head Ramush Haradinaj would
otherwise secure him a high position on a closed AAK list.
Gjini has appealed for the international community to require
open lists in the final status agreement; otherwise,
according to him, Kosovo Assembly members will never back a
system that threatens their seats. In our private
discussions with other members of the Assembly, however, we
heard support for open lists.

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5. (SBU) Some parties have started to consider how to conduct
more democratic elections using open lists and proportional
representation. Under a possible open list scenario, parties
would submit lists of candidate names, one-third of whom
would be women, chosen at their party convention;
representatives drawn from throughout Kosovo would
participate in the conventions. If political parties
provided candidates for all 100 available Assembly seats, the
ballot could be dauntingly long -- a logistical hurdle but
not a deal-breaker. Each voter would choose their preferred
party candidate, and parties would receive Assembly seats
proportionate to the sum of their candidates' share of all
the votes. Seats would then be assigned within parties
starting with the individual candidate who received the most
votes. In case of a tie, the party leadership would decide
who takes the seat or, alternatively, the candidate ranking
higher on the party list (as determined at the convention)
would be entitled to it.

SEATS FOR WOMEN


6. (SBU) Gender representation can be preserved in an open
list system simply by stipulating every third party delegate
be female. This would mean women could receive seats in
place of men who received more votes. To alleviate the vote
disparity, a multiple-vote method could be used -- voters
could be allowed to vote for multiple candidates on the
theory that a voter unwilling to spend his only vote on a
female candidate might be willing to cast his second or third
vote for a woman. The downside could be increased
under-voting and risk of spoiled ballots, if voters mark more
than the maximum number of candidates allowed.


7. (C) Multi-voting may in fact be unnecessary. According to
a recent Index Kosova survey, 72 percent of Kosovars are in
favor of giving seats to women even if they do not receive
the most votes. Both PDK and ORA have party by-laws that
require gender representation -- 25 percent and 30 percent,
respectively -- within the party. A few male representatives
of LDK, AAK, and PDK expressed dissatisfaction with the 30
percent gender set-aside, but other male and all female
representatives from each of these parties support it. AAK
caucus leader Gjylnaze Syla even advocated increasing it to
40 percent in line with the practice in some Scandinavian
countries. Elections experts support the set-aside, the
multi-party Election Forum kept it in their (now defunct)
draft law on local elections, and the Ministry of Local
Government's latest draft election law includes it as well.

DIRECT ELECTION OF MAYORS


8. (C) We heard no objections to direct election of mayors, a
plan Kosovars in the Index Kosova survey find appealing and
democratic. The change will require legislation to
re-distribute local powers in order to balance an executive
mayor against a legislative municipal assembly. Direct
election of mayors has the added bonus of potentially
hindering Belgrade's control of newly decentralized Serb
municipalities.

LOCAL AND CENTRAL ELECTIONS: SEPARATE BUT EQUAL?


9. (SBU) The question remains whether to conduct municipal
and central elections on the same day. Kosovars with whom we
spoke were doubtful of the utility of such an arrangement;
they thought the money saved by holding local and central
elections on the same day would not be worth the increased
complexity and possible public confusion. Objections to
merged elections ranged from local issues getting short
shrift, a open list Kosovo-wide central elections ballot
being unwieldy enough on its own, and not wanting a
post-status Kosovo,s first elections to fail, to the fact
that direct mayoral elections will already require separate
mayoral and municipal assembly ballots.


10. (C) However, our view on simultaneous local and central

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elections is more positive. Arguments in favor of holding
them the same day include saving the estimated 500,000 euros
needed to run separate elections and the chance for greater
turnout. The latter is especially true among Kosovo Serbs
who will be voting to keep municipal officials elected in
2003 and the exciting possibility for Serbs in northern
Mitrovica and enclaves in southern Kosovo to elect local
officials for the first time. There is also a strong
argument to be made that holding one set of elections shortly
after status would have the disadvantage of plunging Kosovar
Albanian parties into heated pre-election rivalry just at the
time that their cooperation is needed on implementation of
key settlement provisions.

THE DISTRICTING QUESTION


11. (C) The current draft law written for the Ministry of
Local Government by a districting proponent from an election
NGO foresees seven districts. Elections experts strongly
favor a multi-district system, and the survey found that 57
percent of Kosovars (97 percent of those surveyed were
Albanian) feel that dividing Kosovo into electoral districts
for Kosovo Assembly elections would provide better
representation for their local interests and concerns. For
their part, political leaders we spoke with did not express
strong feelings either way, and appeared to be waiting for an
indication from us as to whether Kosovo will be districted.


12. (C) Many note, however, that there is currently no good
statistical basis on which to divide Kosovo into electoral
districts. There has not been a census for years and the
civil registry and voters lists have not been updated to take
into account population movements. Proponents of organizing
Kosovo as one district point out that it would not require
massive voter registration, as any sort of districting would.
Having many districts could also disadvantage smaller
parties whose voters may be spread throughout Kosovo. These
parties might lose seats or fail to be represented in the
Kosovo Assembly at all, even though the small, liberal-minded
ORA party told us recently they are confident they would do
well in any district system.

COMMENT: OUR PRIORITIES


13. (C) In a November 24 meeting with Dickson Bailey, IFES
head in Kosovo and KIPRED's Leon Malazogu, author of the
current draft election law, COM emphasized our two main
priorities. First, election planners should work closely
with us and the International Civilian Office (ICO),as well
as the OSCE, which will lead discussions on the election law
with the Kosovars. Second, unified political support for an
electoral plan vastly outweighs other considerations, since
it will be critical to keep the political parties working
together throughout the pre-status and immediate post-status
phases.


14. (C) While preferences among the political parties have
yet to be fully articulated, it may well end up that
cross-party consensus on a single Kosovo-wide district would
be easier to achieve for these first post-status elections;
the system could be changed as political parties mature and
consolidate. (A planned census in 2008 could also provide
the empirical basis for a re-districting scheme for future
elections.) One district would also more readily allow for a
vibrant and effective opposition in the Assembly, as a check
on any ruling coalition. In any event, our bottom line is
clear: we must avoid an ugly political battle over the
conduct of elections during the transition process. We will
encourage parties to come to consensus, and take into account
any settlement provisions that have an impact on elections,
through their planned OSCE-guided working group. END COMMENT.


15. (SBU) U.S. Office Pristina clears this cable in its
entirety for release to U.N. Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari.
KAIDANOW