ZUMA CAMP REMAINS OPTIMISTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 005018

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2016
TAGS: PGOV KJUS SF
SUBJECT: ZUMA CAMP REMAINS OPTIMISTIC

REF: A. PRETORIA 4593


B. PRETORIA 3969

Classified By: Ambassador Eric M. Bost. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

(U) The following message is being transmitted on behalf of
Consulate General Durban, which does not have classified
communications capabilities.


1. (C) SUMMARY. On November 28, the Durban Consul General
met with Rieaz "Mo" Shaik, a former South African diplomat,
long-time ANC member, and brother of Durban businessman
Schabir Shaik who was convicted of fraud and corruption
charges stemming from his relationship with ANC Deputy
President Jacob Zuma. Shaik, who is firmly in the Zuma camp
and describes himself as a friend and advisor to Zuma since
before 1994, remains optimistic Zuma will be the next ANC
President and the next President of South Africa. However,
he does not rule out the possibility of a compromise
candidate to emerge before the ANC conference in December

2007. Shaik insists a Zuma presidency would bring very
little change in government policy, only a change in the way
policy is implemented. Shaik recounted a purported threat
against Zuma involving American citizens, although he did not
believe the threat was credible. END SUMMARY.

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CONSTITUTIONAL COURT APPEAL LIKELY FOR SHAIK AND ZUMA
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2. (C) Mo Shaik told ConGen that his brother would soon be
filing a case with the Constitutional Court, but did not
specify on what grounds. (Note: Schabir Shaik entered prison
on November 9 after his appeal was dismissed by the Supreme
Court of Appeals. He is currently hospitalized for high blood
pressure and stress-related conditions. Since the meeting,
Mo Shaik has confirmed in press reports that his brother
suffered a mild stroke on November 25.) Shaik's intentions
to appeal have since been reported in the press, but the NPA
has not yet received notification, according to the US
Department of Justice Intermittent Legal Advisor (ILA)
(protect). Further, ILA added that though appeals should be
filed within 15 days, Shaik maintains his right to appeal
provided he has a valid reason for filing late. Shaik's
health conditions would probably meet such criteria.


3. (C) Mo Shaik also expects Zuma to file a case with the
Constitutional Court if the the National Prosecuting
Authority (NPA) decides to refile corruption charges against
him. Zuma will argue that he is incapable of receiving a
free and fair trial. In separate meetings, both KZN Judge
President Vuka Tshabalala and Acting Supreme Court of Appeals
Judge Leona Theron told ConGen that they believe Zuma could
present a legitimate argument given the convoluted history of
the case. The Constitutional Court case would need to be
resolved before the corruption case could continue, which
would likely run into 2008 and would not be resolved before
the December 2007 ANC Conference where the next ANC President
will be elected.


4. (C) Mo believes that if the NPA were to refile the
corruption case, it would "trigger a groundswell of support
for Zuma." Zuma supporters, many of whom at the grassroots
level have little understanding of the judicial process and
believe Zuma has already been found innocent, would point to
the charges as further proof of a conspiracy against Zuma.
According to Shaik, another trial would also create a
national platform for Zuma, much like his two previous
trials, and would be a "rallying point" for Zuma supporters.

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MBEKI THE DIVIDER; ZUMA THE UNITER
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5. (C) Shaik is confident Zuma has enough support to become
ANC President in 2007. According to Shaik, a Zuma presidency
is the only option to heal the current divide within the ANC.
(COMMENT: Shaik did not clarify how this would appease the
pro-Mbeki camp. END COMMENT) If President Mbeki attempted to
retain leadership of the party -- either personally or
through a close ally -- divisions would continue, threatening
a split within the ANC itself. At a previous meeting with
Shaik on August 3, Shaik complained that Mbeki was leading
the party and the state in a way that was not in keeping with
ANC principles. He said Zuma supporters felt sidelined by
Mbeki's lack of consultation and felt his top-down approach
was squashing initiative within the party and the government.
Shaik expects the results of the ANC Policy Conference in
mid-2007 to show that there is very little support for
Mbeki's policies, which will give the Zuma camp a clear upper
hand going into the ANC national conference in December 2007.


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SUCCESSION BATTLE: EXPECT A DEAL
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6. (C) Shaik said that though the Zuma camp would insist on
Zuma becoming ANC President in 2007, they might allow room
for a compromise candidate to become President of South
Africa in 2009. In the prelude to the December 2007 ANC
conference, Shaik expects the Zuma and Mbeki camps to
negotiate some sort of deal. Zuma supporters would reject
outright any proposal that includes Mbeki or one of his close
associates. For example, they would oppose Tokyo Sexwale's
candidacy because he is too close to Mbeki, he said. On the
other hand, Shaik believes that Mbeki is afraid that Zuma
would mistreat Mbeki as he has mistreated Zuma if Zuma were
to become President. Therefore, any agreement would be a
"package deal" that included promises on both sides not to
mistreat one another. In the unlikely event, said Shaik,
that Zuma has been convicted before December 2009, "Plan B"
would find Zuma suppporters throwing their weight behind
current ANC Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe as an
alternative candidate.

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ZUMA PRESIDENCY: STATUS QUO FOR ANC
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7. (C) Shaik insisted there would be very little change in
government policy if Zuma were to become President. "Zuma
would continue current ANC policy," he said. However, Zuma
would "govern differently" and implement policy differently.
He would have a more consultative approach, which included
civil society more actively and public-private partnerships
more effectively than Mbeki. Shaik is confident many Cabinet
ministers including the Minister of Finance, Minister of
Foreign Affairs, and Minister of Trade and Industry would
keep their positions, as they have been performing well.
Shaik expected Zuma's top three priorities as President would
be education, HIV/AIDS, and crime. (Note: Noticeably absent
is Mbeki's focus on foreign policy, especially on African
security and renaissance.)

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THREATS AGAINST ZUMA
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8. (C) Shaik told ConGen that Zuma recently received
information from intelligence sources outside South Africa of
a possible assassination plot, possibly through poisoning.
These undisclosed sources told Zuma that American citizens
(not connected with the U.S. Government) were involved. This
in part, coincides with another Embassy contact, Charles
Tawil (protect),who told our Economic Counselor on November
29 that Zuma had received information from the mother of the
King of Swaziland about CIA attempts to kill Zuma using
poisoned clothes from the FBI. Shaik revealed that Zuma, who
maintains contacts with foreign intelligence networks from
his time as head of ANC intelligence prior to 1994, shared
this information with the South African police, who told him
that they were also aware of the plot and the possible
involvement of Americans. The police have assured Zuma that
they would investigate and provide protection accordingly,
according to Shaik. Shaik, however, did not believe that the
threat was credible and said that any potential threat would
likely come from the ANC. However, he pointed out that
elements of the party opposed to Zuma knew an assassination
would likely backfire because of the strong reaction it would
provoke from Zuma supporters.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Shaik underscores the high level of Zuma support
within KZN, which could be easily contrasted to other regions
like the Eastern Cape, which encouraged Mbeki on December 3
to run for a third term as ANC President (SEPTEL). A
Constitutional Court appeal on Zuma's behalf is likely to be
a tactic to keep his candidacy for ANC President alive
through the December 2007 conference. Moreover, the media
attention of a Zuma appeal is likely to give his more zealous
supporters a rallying point as his past two trials have done.
Despite Shaik's optimism, his camp's forethought and
willingness to consider a compromise may be seen as a sign of
fear that Zuma will in fact be prosecuted or will not have
sufficient support to win the ANC Presidency. In the
meantime, both the Zuma and Mbeki camps are standing firm so
as to best position themselves if and when a compromise
becomes inevitable.


10. (C) As for the alleged threat against Zuma's life, while
Shaik may not find it credible, it is possible that Zuma
takes it seriously, given the lingering level of distrust of
the United States within certain ANC circles.
BOST