(C) IDASA'S MASAMVU SAYS SOUTH AFRICA PUSHING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 004632

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S. HILL AND M. TABLER-STONE
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
USAID FOR M. COPSON AND E. LOKEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2016
TAGS: PREL PINR ECON ZI SF
SUBJECT: (C) IDASA'S MASAMVU SAYS SOUTH AFRICA PUSHING
MUGABE TO RETIRE IN 2008

REF: A. HARARE 1307


B. HARARE 1294

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(
b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: South Africa wants Zimbabwean President
Mugabe to annouce at the upcoming ZANU-PF congress that he
will retire in 2008, according to IDASA analyst Sydney
Masamvu. Masamvu says that former President Mandela met
privately with Mugabe October 23 to encourage him to retire.
Senior ANC officials are traveling to Zimbabwe to reiterate
the message. President Mbeki is also using SADC economic
integration to highlight Zimbabwe's failing economy and
encourage reform. The use of Mandela, ANC channels, and SADC
is potentially more effective than South Africa's previous
initiatives. Masamvu says that the political jockeying
within ZANU-PF is intensifying, but Mugabe has yet to show
his hand on his retirement plans or succession. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) PolOff met with Sydney Masamvu, analyst with the
Institute for Democracy in South Africa (IDASA),on November

3. Masamvu, a Zimbabwean who worked for International Crisis
Group until they closed their South Africa office in
September, began work for IDASA's Countries in Transition
office on November 1. USAID Zimbabwe and USAID South Africa
are co-funding Masamvu's salary at IDASA (NOTE: strictly
protect source of Masamvu's salary). He will focus on
analyzing developments in Zimbabwe and Swaziland, publishing
reports on both countries, and engaging journalists. Post
has worked with Masamvu for two years and been consistently
impressed by his insights and analysis.

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South Africa Wants Mugabe to Retire in 2008
--------------


3. (C) According to Masamvu, South Africa is strongly
encouraging Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe to stick to
the current Constitution and retire in 2008. (NOTE: Media
reports have suggested that Mugabe might amend the Zimbabwean
Constitution to synchronize the presidential and
parliamentary elections in 2010, thus extending his term by
two years. END NOTE.) ANC Secretary-General Kgalema
Motlanthe told Masamvu that former South African President
Nelson Mandela met privately with Mugabe October 23 on the
margins of the SADC Extraordinary Summit on Economic
Integration to encourage Mugabe to join him in retirement.


4. (C) Masamvu also has learned that SAG Defense Minister and
ANC National Chairperson Mosiuoa Lekota plans to travel to
Zimbabwe the week of November 6 to reiterate the message
about Mugabe's retirement to his Ministry of Defense
counterpart and the ZANU-PF leadership. Lekota and Motlanthe
will also attend the ZANU-PF conference December 2-5, where
they hope Mugabe will announce his retirement in 2008.
Masamvu believes that South Africa's first choice as next
Zimbabwean president is Simba Makoni, but they would settle
for "anyone but Mugabe" at this point.

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SADC Economic Integration as Leverage to Encourage Reform
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Masamvu and IDASA Deputy Director Ivor Jenkins
suggested that South Africa is using SADC economic
integration to leverage reform in Zimbabwe. Jenkins told
PolOff October 25 that Zimbabwe stands out as the one country
in SADC with negative economic growth, which is dragging down
the region and slowing economic integration. This gives
Mbeki an argument to push for economic reform in Zimbabwe.
While acknowledging that South Africa is encouraging SADC
economic integration for multiple reasons, including its own
commercial interests, Jenkins believes that the recent flurry
of activity on integration, including hosting the October 23
"Extraordinary SADC Summit on Regional Integration," is
designed in part to highlight Zimbabwe's economic failings
and spur reform. The Extraordinary Summit reviewed the
findings of a SADC task force focused on accelerating
regional integration and reiterated the highly ambitious
(COMMENT: and probably unrealistic) timetable of establishing

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a free trade area by 2008, a customs union by 2010, a common
market by 2015, and an economic and monetary union by 2018
(septel).


6. (U) Recent press accounts have suggested that regional
leaders are pressing Mugabe to reform Zimbabwe's economy.
The Sunday Times newspaper reported August 20 that current
SADC Chairman and Lesotho PM Pakalitha Mosisili stressed that
the situation in Zimbabwe "is of concern to SADC precisely
because Zimbabwe was the second-strongest economy in the
community and for its economy to have declined to the levels
at which (it has) is of major concern to us." Another press
report in the September 3 Sunday Independent suggested that
SADC offered to help Zimbabwe "sort out" its economy at the
Lesotho summit, an offer Mugabe reportedly rejected.

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ZANU-PF Maneuvering
--------------


7. (C) Masamvu, who just returned from a three-week trip to
Zimbabwe, reported that the political jockeying within
ZANU-PF is intensifying. He said there is tremendous
pressure on Mugabe to announce his retirement in 2008 at the
ZANU-PF congress. Solomon Mujuru told Masamvu that Zimbabwe
can "limp through" to 2008, but no longer. Masamvu sizes up
the ZANU-PF succession battle as a three-way struggle:

-- The Mujurus (Vice President Joyce and her husband Solomon)
have allied with former Finance Minister Simba Makoni (Ref
A). Solomon Mujuru understands the weakness of his wife as a
presidential candidate and is floating the idea of
reinstituting a strong prime ministerial system with a
ceremonial president. If they can push through the
President/PM constitutional amendment in 2007 and win the
2008 election, Joyce Mujuru would become president and Simba
Makoni PM. (BIO NOTE: Masamvu met with Solomon Mujuru and
said he looked "relatively healthy," about the same as the
last time he saw him. Mujuru drinks heavily, and "you have
to meet with him early in the day" to have a coherent
conversation. END BIO NOTE.)

-- Former Speaker of Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa continues
to jockey for the ZANU-PF leadership and believes he can
benefit from Mugabe's increasing distrust of the Mujurus.
Several Mnangagwa allies, including former Information
Minister Jonathan Moyo, told Masamvu that they have been
disappointed by Mnangagwa's lack of political courage and
skill, and believe that the Mujurus will outplay him.

-- The third emerging faction is led by Gideon Gono, current
Governor of the Reserve Bank. Gono has Mugabe's trust,
perhaps more than the Mujurus, and has cleverly built his
political base. Masamvu says that Gono, through his control
of foreign exchange, has "bought" the support of the
"securocrats," the key military and intelligence officials.
For the first time, senior military officials are saying that
a "capable person" -- even if he or she did not participate
in liberation struggle -- should lead the country. This
creates a niche for Gono (COMMENT: but also for Makoni).

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Talk of MDC "Reunification"
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8. (C) Leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) splinter faction Arthur Mutambara told Masamvu
that he is open to reuniting with the Morgan Tsvangirai-led
MDC. The recent drubbing at the rural council elections (Ref
B) underscored the importance of the two factions working
together. (NOTE: Masamvu largely attributes the MDC's
failure in the rural elections to lack of resources. END
NOTE.) The two MDC factions have even discussed a potential
joint leadership slate, with Tsvangirai at the head,
Mutambara and Thokezani Khupe as co-vice presidents, Gibson
Sibanda as national chairman, and Tendai Biti as
secretary-general. There is pressure to announce the

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reunification before the ZANU-PF congress.


9. (C) The problem, Masamvu said, is Welshman Ncube, who is
resisting rejoining a Tsvangirai-led MDC. Tsvangirai and

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other MDC leaders told Masamvu that they want to find Ncube
"something" to do outside MDC politics, perhaps a visiting
professorship at a U.S. university.

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Comment
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10. (C) We agree that South Africa would like to see Mugabe
leave office as soon as possible. The use of ANC party
leaders -- Lekota and Motlanthe -- working through their
ZANU-PF counterparts is potentially more effective than
traditional diplomatic channels. While we understand that
former President Mandela and President Mugabe are not close,
their October 23 conversation represents the SAG bringing out
its big guns to encourage Mugabe to retire. The recent push
for SADC economic integration could highlight Zimbabwe's
economic deterioration, giving South Africa and other
regional leaders leverage to encourage reform -- without
looking like they are acting for the United Kingdom or United
States.
BOST