NEC MEMBER EBRAHIM SAYS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 004598

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR SF
SUBJECT: NEC MEMBER EBRAHIM SAYS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
ANC SUCCESSION

REF: A. PRETORIA 4310

B. PRETORIA 4511

C. 2005 PRETORIA 1528

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(
b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION: This is the second in a
series of cables on the strengths and weaknesses of the
emerging candidates for the ANC and national presidencies in
South Africa (Ref A). This messages presents the view of
Ebrahim Ebrahim, ANC National Executive Council member and
former Political Advisor to Jacob Zuma. Ebrahim, who was
imprisoned on Robben Island with Zuma, said the current
speculation about the ANC presidential succession is "mere
guesswork." The real canvassing for the ANC presidency will
kick off in May or June 2007. Ebrahim claimed that Zuma is a
"genuine" person who is not corrupt, but was "misled" and
demonstrated poor judgment. Zuma is popular with poor South
Africans around the country, not just in KwaZulu-Natal, a
fact that President Mbeki does not fully appreciate. Ebrahim
said he does not think the ANC membership wants a "BEE
tycoon" such as Ramaphosa or Sexwale, as the next president;
Ebrahim would support ANC Secretary-General Motlanthe whom he
believes could unite the party factions. END SUMMARY AND
INTRODUCTION.

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Too Early to Speculate on Succession
--------------


2. (C) PolOff met with Ebrahim Ebrahim (strictly protect)
October 25 to discuss Jacob Zuma's political future and
Ebrahim's conflict resolution work in Sri Lanka and Bolivia
(septels). Ebrahim, an African National Congress (ANC)
National Executive Council (NEC) Member and former Political
Advisor to Jacob Zuma when Zuma was SAG Deputy President (see
bio-note at paras 10-11),told PolOff that the "real
canvassing" for the ANC presidential election will only begin
in May or June 2007, in advance of the ANC National Congress
in December. The current speculation in the press is "mere
guesswork." No one -- not even President Mbeki -- knows how
the race will develop at this stage.

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Zuma Misled, but Popular
--------------


3. (C) Ebrahim, who was imprisoned with Jacob Zuma on Robben
Island, said that Zuma was a "genuine" person who was "not
corrupt." Zuma "has been misled by some people" (COMMENT:
likely referring to former Zuma financial advisor Schabir
Shaik). Ebrahim noted that many Zuma allies, including
himself, were disappointed by how Zuma handled the rape
allegation and trial (NFI).


4. (C) Ebrahim suggested that Zuma would be an "excellent"
president of the ANC party because of his open personality
and broad appeal across the country, but perhaps would not be
such a good president of the country. This has led some in
the ANC to discuss the idea of splitting the ANC and SAG
presidencies. However, many in the ANC, in both the Zuma and
Mbeki camps, oppose this idea because it would create "two
centers of power." Ebrahim admitted that Zuma knows
"nothing" about economics and, if elected president, would
need substantial support in this area.


5. (C) Despite the claims of Mbeki supporters, Zuma has
substantial grassroots support, Ebrahim argued, and not just
in KwaZulu-Natal. While it is true that some of Zuma's base
comes from those who dislike Mbeki and his policies, Zuma's
anti-poverty message and personal story (rising from humble
beginnings) resonates with South Africans, particularly in
poor communities. Contrary to Mbeki's aloof style, Zuma has
the "common touch" with the people, like Mandela. Ebrahim
said that Mbeki's supporters tend to dismiss Zuma's popular
appeal, which is a mistake. Ebrahim personally urged Joel
Netshitenzhe, presidential policy advisor and close Mbeki
ally, to do a serious analysis of the reasons that Zuma has
so much political support. Ebrahim thinks that understanding
Zuma's support is important for the future of the party.

--------------
No BEE Tycoons, but perhaps Motlanthe
--------------


PRETORIA 00004598 002 OF 003



6. (C) Asked about other possible candidates for the ANC
presidency, Ebrahim said that he does not think the ANC
membership wants a "BEE tycoon," like Cyril Ramaphosa or
Tokyo Sexwale, as their next president. He personally could
support ANC Secretary-General Kgalema Motlanthe, who he
believes would be able to reunify the party.

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Membership More Assertive
--------------


7. (C) Ebrahim also noted that the ANC membership is becoming
increasingly assertive because of their growing frustration
with the party leadership. At the last ANC NEC meeting,
members spoke up more forcefully and challenged the party
leadership. Even in Parliament, ANC MPs are beginning to
assert their independence, such as on the same-sex union
bill. Ebrahim believes this is a healthy development for the
party and South Africa's democracy (COMMENT: it also could be
read as Mbeki's waning influence over ANC members as he
enters his final years of office).

--------------
Adam Habib Concern
--------------


8. (C) Ebrahim asked about case of Adam Habib, the South
African academic who was denied entry into the United States
on October 21 (Ref B). Ebrahim, who is a Muslim like Habib,
said that he has known Habib for many years and was "shocked"
by the U.S. decision. He had always viewed Habib as a
"moderate" who was open to the West. Ebrahim said that
following the Habib incident, he is personally afraid to
travel to California next year when his daughter graduates
from Stanford. (NOTE: PolOff met with two other senior think
tank officials October 25, Ivor Jenkins of IDASA and Peter
Kagwanja formerly of the International Crisis Group, who both
expressed their outrage at the Habib case. Both said they
know Habib well and cannot imagine why he was denied entry
into the United States. END NOTE.)

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Comment
--------------


9. (C) We agree with Ebrahim that it is too early to
speculate with any accuracy about the ANC succession battle.
Ebrahim's suggestion that Zuma has widespread appeal warrants
closer examination, but we question Zuma's staying power as
an ANC presidential candidate, especially if charged again
for corruption. Ebrahim's admission that he would support
ANC Secretary-General Motlanthe in the succession battle
confirms what we have been hearing from several ANC insiders
and analysts -- that Zuma's core supporters (including the
SACP and COSATU) are coalescing around Motlanthe as their
"back up candidate" should Zuma fall by the wayside.

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Bio-Note
--------------


10. (C) Born in 1937, Ebrahim Ebrahim joined the ANC in 1952
and the armed wing of the party, Umkhonto we Sizwe, in 1960.
He was arrested in 1961 and sentenced to 15 years
imprisonment on Robben Island. After his release from Robben
Island in 1979, Ebrahim fled into exile. In 1986, the South
African security forces kidnapped Ebrahim in Swaziland and
charged him with high treason. He was released five years
later when an appeal court ruled that his abduction from a
foreign country was illegal.


11. (C) Ebrahim was elected to the ANC National Executive
Committee in 1991, and served as Member of Parliament from
1994 to 2002, including as Chairperson of the Parliamentary
Foreign Affairs Committee. Ebrahim was SAG Deputy President
Jacob Zuma's Political Advisor from 2002 to 2005, and was
deeply involved in Zuma's work as mediator in Burundi (Ref
C). Together with former National Party minister and
negotiator Roelf Meyer, Ebrahim is involved in conflict
resolution work in Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bolivia. Ebrahim
has a child, Cassia, from a previous engagement to a U.S.
citizen, Julie Wells. Per para 8, Cassia is a student at
Stanford University. Ebrahim is currently married to Shannon
Field, a South African who grew up in Canada. Field works in
the SAG Presidency as a conflict resolution advisor, and she
and Ebrahim are expecting a child in November.

PRETORIA 00004598 003 OF 003


BOST