SOUTH AFRICA MEDIATOR VISITING BURUNDI AND TANZANIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 003889

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2016
TAGS: PREL SF BU
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA MEDIATOR VISITING BURUNDI AND TANZANIA

REF: A. DAR ES SALAAM 1508


B. BUJUMBURA 765

Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Catherine Kay. Reasons 1.4(b
) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. The South African Facilitator of the Burundi
Peace Process, Safety and Security Minister Charles Nqakula,
will travel to Burundi and Tanzania September 19-20 to
"remove obstacles" to the implementation of the September 7
FNL peace agreement. Nqakula will seek international donor
funds to support the process, including security for the FNL
to return to Burundi. ISS Burundi expert Jan van Eck
believes that the FNL peace agreement is "extremely fragile."
The FNL is reluctant to return to Burundi because of the
recent arrests in the country, and their constituency does
not support the agreement. For the FNL peace accord to
succeed, van Eck believes that South Africa and Rwanda must
apply more pressure on the Government of Burundi to open
political space. END SUMMARY.

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Nqakula Visiting Burundi and Tanzania
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2. (U) The Facilitator of the Burundi Peace Process, South
African Safety and Security Minister Charles Nqakula, will
visit Bujumbura September 19, and Dar es Salaam September 20.
DFA Great Lakes Envoy Kingsley Mamabolo will accompany
Nqakula. According to the South Africa Government press
release, Nqakula will meet with the Government of Burundi and
the Paliphehutu-FNL to discuss implementation of the
September 7 cease fire agreement (Ref A). According to
Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Burundi expert Jan van
Eck, Nqakula will focus on the "obstacles" to implementing
the agreement timetable, particularly the return of the FNL
to Burundi.


3. (C) Department of Foreign Affairs Burundi desk officer
Rasheeda Adam told PolOff September 18 that Nqakula will also
meet with international donors in Bujumbura to seek funds to
support the peace accord. In particular, he will request
resources to fund the FNL return to Burundi, particularly
their security protection. It is not clear whether a direct
approach to the USG is planned.

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Regional Technical Teams Met in Pretoria
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4. (C) South Africa hosted a meeting of the regional
"technical teams" to support the FNL agreement on September
15, according to DFA's Adam and ISS analyst Henri Boshoff.
The meeting, attended by the Governments of Uganda, Tanzania,
and South Africa, discussed the "logistics" of bringing the
FNL back to Burundi, including their security.

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Van Eck Says FNL Agreement "Extremely Fragile"
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5. (C) ISS expert Jan van Eck told PolOff September 18 that
he believed the FNL agreement remained "extremely fragile."
The FNL signed the accord only after "intense pressure" from
Presidents Kikwete and Museveni. The FNL is now "paying the
price" with its constituency, van Eck suggested, since they
signed an agreement without receiving anything in return.
The FNL is now trying to sell the agreement to their
supporters with little success. The FNL remains extremely
reluctant to go back to Burundi, especially given the recent
arrests of regime opponents, and van Eck doubts that the
South African mediators will be able to convince them.


6. (C) Van Eck said that several sources told him that
Presidents Museveni and Kikwete are increasingly concerned
about the internal situation in Burundi, particularly the
recent arrests and rising tension. Van Eck believes that
Museveni and Kikwete want to resolve the FNL "problem" as
soon as possible, so the GOB will no longer be able to blame
the FNL for the internal political problems. Ending the FNL

PRETORIA 00003889 002 OF 002


rebellion will allow the region to focus on the increasingly
problematic behavior of the Burundian Government, van Eck
suggested.


7. (C) The key to implementing the agreement, according to
van Eck, is pressure on both sides, but particularly on the
Government of Burundi. He believes that the South Africans
have significant influence, as does the Government of Rwanda.
Uganda and Tanzania have little to no influence over the
Burundi regime.

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Comment
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8. (C) South Africa has invested substantial financial and
personnel resources in the FNL peace process and is committed
to ensuring it succeeds. Developing a plan to provide
security for the FNL leadership so they feel comfortable to
return to Burundi is likely a key part of their strategy for
implementing the agreement. South African security forces
guarded the Burundian parties during the lead-up to the
Burundi elections. We believe Pretoria will propose a
similar plan for the FNL return and will seek international
funding for its initiative.
Bost