BURUNDI SUMMIT POSSIBLE IN LATE AUGUST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 003420

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2016
TAGS: PREL BU
SUBJECT: BURUNDI SUMMIT POSSIBLE IN LATE AUGUST

REF: PRETORIA 2880 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: PolCounselor Raymond Brown, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Regional leaders may convene a high-level
Burundi summit August 29 or 30 in Dar es Salaam to witness
the signature of an FNL-GOB cease fire agreement, according
to ISS Analyst Jan van Eck. Van Eck, a long-time Burundi
watcher with close connections to the FNL, says that the FNL
might be willing to sign a cease-fire as long as there is
agreement to deal with their "other issues." While
acknowleging that some of the FNL positions are "maximalist,"
Van Eck views the lack of GOB flexibility as the biggest
impediment to a final deal. Further, the South African
facilitator, Charles Nqakula, is not devoting sufficient time
to the peace process, van Eck suggested, and their working
level defense and intelligence officials are "amateurish."
END SUMMARY.

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Possible Burundi Summit
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2. (U) Speaking at an August 11 Institute for Security
Studies (ISS) Seminar, Burundi ISS analyst Jan van Eck said
that regional leaders, who are likely anxious to show
progress after months of negoiations, are discussing holding
a high-level Burundi summit in Dar es Salaam August 29 or 30,
during which the FNL and Government of Burundi would sign a
cease-fire agreement. Van Eck said that the FNL is not ready
for a final peace agreement, but may be willing to sign to a
"conditional cease-fire" that would become operational
following resolution of the outstanding political issues.
Van Eck said that Presidents Mbeki, Museveni and others would
attend the signing.


3. (U) In van Eck's opinion, the main problem with the
current FNL talks is the unwillingness of the GOB to
negotiate. As the democratically-elected government, the
regime does not believe it needs to negotiate with the FNL
(or domestic opposition). Van Eck also acknowleges, however,
that some of the FNL negotiating positions -- like its
demands on the new army -- are "unreasonable" and
"maximalist," but believes that any negotiation must involve
give and take. Right now, the FNL wants something "concrete"
to bring back to their supporters. Van Eck has heard that
"some parties" are pressing the GOB to offer FNL head Agathon
Rwasa a senior position in government, which could be such a
carrot. Van Eck does not believe that the current peace
framework should be scrapped, but rather "certain issues
should be debated within the framework." Threats to take the
FNL to the International Criminal Court through the
Tripartite Commission Plus have been "very unhelpful," and
create a bad atomosphere for talks.

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FNL Modernizing/Expanding
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4. (U) Van Eck, who has spent considerable time with the FNL
in Tanzania, said that the months in Dar es Salaam waiting
for the GOB were spent "urbanizing," "modernizing," and
preparing for the negotiations. The Tanzanians were
instrumental in bringing the FNL to Dar es Salaam and remain
in close contact with them. Everyone who has met Rwasa has
been impressed, although van Eck noted that Rwasa is sick, in
large part because of the presure on him.


5. (U) More broadly, van Eck believes that the "support and
stature" of the FNL is growing "phenominally." The FNL is
in close contact with the domestic opposition, as well as
some government leaders. While the number of FNL soliders is
low, they could mobilize large numbers quickly since the
current political environment lends itself easily to
recruitment.

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South African Mediation Not Focused
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6. (C) Van Eck privately shared with PolOff his frustrations
with the South African mediation. Minister Charles Nqakula,
the Facilitator of the Burundi Peace Process, is not devoting
sufficient time to the talks; he flies in and out of the
region without spending enough time with the parties to
understand the issues. His right-hand man, Ambassador
Kingsley Mamabolo is quite good (and close to van Eck),but
has been preoccupied by the DRC elections. This leaves a
team of inexperienced, working level Defense and Intelligence
officials in Dar es Salaam. Van Eck recounted how one of the

PRETORIA 00003420 002 OF 002


South Africans tried to buy Rwasa's signature on the peace
agreement with $4,000, an amateurish move.


7. (C/NF) According to a Pretoria-based Beligian diplomat,
the South Africans have requested funding from several
European governments to support the FNL mediation. France is
providing Euro 150,000, and Belgium is considering a Euro
250,000 grant. The Dutch have also made a contribution.

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Comment
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8. (C) Van Eck is a long-time "Burundi pessimist," and he is
increasingly sympathetic to the FNL perspective on the peace
process. We cannot comment on the accuracy of his views on
the situation in Burundi, but he remains an excellent source
for insights into FNL thinking and retains significant
influence over the South African mediation through his
personal connection to Ambassador Kingsley Mamabolo. We
recommend staying in touch with him both in South Africa and
Dar es Salaam.
Bost