SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER MARCH 10 2006

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 001004

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TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER MARCH 10 2006
ISSUE



1. Summary. Each week, Embassy Pretoria publishes an
economic newsletter based on South African press reports.
Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the
opinion of the U.S. Government. Topics of this week's
newsletter are:

- January Manufacturing Growth at 5.6%;
- December Retail Sales Strong; 2005 Sales Growth
Decelerates;
- New Vehicle Sales Growth Leveling;
- Manufacturing Continues to Show Signs of Weakness;
- SACOB Business Confidence Falls in February
- Research Points to a Diverse Black Middle Class
- Lehmans Lowers Growth Outlook for South Africa; and
- Firms Begin to Feel HIV/AIDS Impacts on Work Force.
End Summary.

January Manufacturing Growth at 5.6%
--------------


2. Statistics SA announced that January's growth in
manufacturing production reached 5.6% (y/y),although it
declined by 2.7% (seasonally adjusted) compared to the
previous month's growth of 5.8%. Food and beverages and
petroleum and chemical products explained most of the
decline in production on a monthly basis. On a quarterly
basis, manufacturing production increased 1.8% (seasonally
adjusted) compared to the previous quarter. The strong
rand continues to be a concern for export-intensive
manufacturers, although strong international and domestic
demand mitigates its effects. The IMF forecasts higher
2006 European growth at 1.2% y/y compared to 0.8% in 2005.
In addition, the Southern African Development Community,
South Africa's second largest manufacturing export
destination, should grow by 5.9% from 4.8% in 2005,
according to World Bank forecasts. Source: Statistics SA
P3041.2, Standard Bank, Manufacturing Unpacked, March 9.

December Retail Sales Strong; 2005 Sales Growth
Decelerates
-------------- --


3. The 2005 holiday season showed strong consumer
spending, though 2005 might be the beginning of a downward
growth trend. Retail sales in December increased 8.9%
(y/y) from November's growth of 7.9%, the highest growth
in 8 months, according to Statistics SA. However, for
2005, yearly growth decelerated. Retail sales grew by
6.8% in 2005, from 4.9% and 9.7% in 2003 and 2004,
respectively. Consumer demand has been the main source of
faster growth in the economy over the past couple of
years, aided by the lowest interest rates in more than two
decades, low inflation and the spending power of a rising
black middle class. On a quarterly basis, real retail
sales increased 8.1% (y/y). Source: Statistics SA
Release P6242.1, March 8; Business Day, March 9.

New Vehicle Sales Growth Leveling
--------------


4. The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers
of SA (NAAMSA) released the February new vehicle sales
showing growth may be decelerating in 2006. In February,
new vehicle sales increased by 17.2% (y/y). February's
growth is considerably lower than December 2005's growth
of 27.4% and January's 20.3% growth. According to NAAMSA
data, new vehicle sales increased by 25.7% in 2005,
although strong growth in vehicle sales may not continue
as a strong rand continues to affect exports in
automobiles and other manufactured products. NAAMSA
expects automobile growth to continue throughout 2006,
although at a slower rate. Industry projections
anticipate 10% growth for 2006. Auto production is the
second-biggest industry in the manufacturing sector, which
accounts for more than 16% of the economy. Vehicles
comprise about 7% of South African exports. Source:
Business Day, March 3.

Manufacturing Continues to Show Signs of Weakness
-------------- --------------


5. Manufacturing activity contracted for the second
consecutive month in February and, if sustained, could
dampen South Africa's economic growth prospects. The

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Investec Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 49 in
February, slightly up from 48.1 in January. A reading
below 50 suggests a contraction in the sector. In
January, the PMI dropped below 50 points for the first
time since October 2003, as the rand strengthened to a
monthly average of R6.09 per dollar. The sustained
strength of the rand explains much of the pressure on
manufacturing, according Investec Asset Management's head
of fixed income, Andre Roux. Since South Africa's growth
in the past two years has been supported by strong
increases in consumer demand, a slowing in consumer
spending may mean lower overall growth. Argon Asset
Management's Nazeem Hendricks expects a slowing in
consumer demand as credit extension and money supply
growth continue to level off. If manufacturing growth
fails to accelerate, then overall South African growth
expectations may have to be cut. Manufacturing employment
also showed signs of weakness, with the seasonally
adjusted employment index at 45.8, down from January's
46.7. Source: Business Day, March 3.

SACOB Business Confidence Falls in February
--------------


6. According to the South African Chamber of Business
(SACOB),South Africa's business confidence fell by 3
points to 100.1 in February, its biggest drop since
October 2004. Apart from construction, the main growth
area remains the service sector. SACOB noted that
electricity, water services and government services were
the weakest performers in 2005. According to SACOB
economist Richard Downing, export volumes and
manufacturing output are playing more important roles in
affecting the business mood. Exports declined about 30%
or R8billion during January, as imports rose by R3.5
billion. Source: Reuters, March 7; Business Day, March

8.

Research Points to a Diverse Black Middle Class
-------------- --


7. A University of Cape Town (UCT) "Black Diamond"
marketing survey study shows that the rapidly growing
black middle class is more diverse than previously
thought. The study, which confirms that the black middle
class is the driving force behind South Africa's economic
growth, investigated a range of issues, including the
respondents' aspirations, attitudes and consumer behavior.
The buying power of the black middle class is about R130
billion ($22 billion, using 6 rands per dollar) a year,
approximately 15% of South Africa's 2004 household
consumption. The study reports that black households in
the upper income bracket [earnings of more than R154,000
($26,000)] increased by 368% between 1998 and 2004. The
survey did not reveal that affirmative action had led to
frequent job changing. Only a small percentage of the
respondents said they changed jobs more than three times
in the last three years. The respondents were
overwhelmingly confident about themselves and their
futures, and reported that they had little interest in
politics or overseas holidays. Relatively few are members
of medical aid schemes or pension funds. Most of them say
black economic empowerment has benefited only a privileged
few and half feel trapped by rising debt. Although most
respondents believe that moving out of the townships shows
success, many still live in townships and have no plans to
move. Tradition and custom remains important, with
importance of lobola (payment for brides),ritual animal
slaughter and ancestor worship continuing. The less
affluent members of the black middle class spent more than
their peers with higher incomes. Real wealth is
concentrated mostly among those in the older, more
established segment of the black middle class and they
tend to invest rather than spend. The Black Diamond study
listed unemployment as the biggest fear, registering
higher than crime and HIV/AIDS. The "Black Diamond"
marketing survey involved interviews with 750 adults
living in metropolitan areas, selected from both suburban
and township areas in Durban, Johannesburg and Cape Town,
with an even gender split. Source: Sunday Times,
February 26; Business Day, March 3.

Lehmans Lowers Growth Outlook for South Africa
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8. International investment bank Lehman Brothers lowered
its 2006 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for
South Africa to 4% from 4.5%. Lehman revised its forecast
because it expects the rand to remain strong due to rising
global metals prices, leading to a possible manufacturing
recession later in the year. Writing in the bank's Global
Weekly Economic Monitor, Lehman Brothers' analyst Robert
Beange noted that since November the price of gold had
risen by 25% to around $560 per ounce. Lehmans calculated
that the South African current account deficit would
amount to 3.5% of GDP in 2006, thus leading to a sustained
appreciation of the rand. Lehman Brothers' estimates
suggested that the manufacturing sector could slip into
recession during the second and third quarters of 2006.
Lehmen Brothers also lowered its forecast for CPIX
(headline consumer inflation less mortgage rate changes),
with the current estimate of 4% by the end of 2006
compared to its previous projection of close to 5%. They
expect the South African Reserve Bank to cut interest
rates by 50 basis points at its April Monetary Policy
Committee meeting. Source: I-Net Bridge and Business
Report, March 6.

Firms Begin to Feel HIV/AIDS Impacts on Work Force
-------------- --------------


9. According to Grant Thornton's 2006 International
Business Owners Survey (IBOS),South African business
owners are increasingly starting programs to intervene
against HIV/AIDS. Concern runs particularly high in the
Eastern Cape cities of Port Elizabeth and East London,
where 97% of the businesses surveyed reported a sizable
impact on their business growth. The sectors showing the
highest growth in concern were construction and retail,
where the percentages increased to 87% and 88%,
respectively, from 75% and 74% in 2005. Training proved
the most popular element in companies' HIV/AIDS management
plans, with 65% participating in these programs. However,
only 35% of companies pay for employees' treatment costs.
Lee-Anne Bac, the director of strategic solutions at Grant
Thornton, said the extent of interventions increased
compared to 2005, when the majority of business owners did
not have any companywide policies. A study commissioned
by AIC Insurance in 2005 showed that South Africa loses an
estimated R12 billion a year due to absenteeism in the
workplace, of which between R1.8 billion and R2.2 billion
could be directly attributed to HIV/AIDS. In the mining
sector, Harmony estimated costs related to HIV/AIDS would
amount to 7.5% of total labor costs over the next 15
years, while its HIV/AIDS workplace program cost R10
million ($1.7 million) in the last financial year.
AngloGold Ashanti spent R14.6 million ($2.4 million) in
2005 providing antiretrovirals, voluntary counseling and
home-based care for terminally ill former employees, as
well as research, monitoring and evaluation. Recently,
the Epicenter AIDS Risk Management Foundation was
appointed as consultant for a R2.4 million ($400,000)
research project funded by the Global Fund for HIV/AIDS.
The study will also examine the impact of the pandemic on
the business sector, focusing on KwaZulu-Natal, which has
been the hardest-hit province. The Grant Thornton IBOS
Survey contacted 300 business owners who employ between 50
and 250 staff in South Africa. Source: Business Report,
March 8.

TEITELBAUM