CZECH ELECTION RESULTS: TOTAL STALEMATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000607

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NCE, S/ES-O

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH ELECTION RESULTS: TOTAL STALEMATE

REF: A. PRAGUE 591

B. PRAGUE 579

C. PRAGUE 549

D. PRAGUE 535

E. PRAGUE 516

F. PRAGUE 482

G. PRAGUE 427

H. PRAGUE 284

PRAGUE 00000607 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The June 2-3 Czech general elections ended
in a dramatic stalemate, with the left and the right camp
each receiving 100 seats in the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies,
and Prime Minster Paroubek threatening to file a complaint
with the courts to have the results annulled. An obvious
possibility is a grand coalition of the two main parties,
which would hold 155 seats. However, deep personal
animosities between the leaders of the two main parties,
exacerbated by a harsh campaign and a bitter post-election
speech, will make a grand coalition difficult to achieve. A
minority government is also possible, although hardly
desirable, given its inherent fragility. With a dead-even
split between the left and the right, we expect each side to
try and coax one, two, or a few parliamentarians to the other
side in a desperate attempt to forge a majority coalition.
END SUMMARY.


2. (U) As predicted (ref A),none of the five parties that
crossed the 5% threshold to enter Parliament won enough votes
to form a majority government, so the Czech Republic will
once again be government by a coalition. The opposition
right-of-center Civic Democrats (ODS) won a narrow victory
over the ruling left-of-center Social Democrats (CSSD) 35.45%
to 32.3%. The Communists (KSCM) won 12.8%, the Christian
Democrats (KDU-CSL) 7.2%, and the Greens (SZ) 6.3%. The 200
seats in the lower house of Parliament will be distributed as
follows: ODS 81, CSSD 74, KSCM 26, KDU-CSL 13, SZ 6. So the
right-wing coalition (ODS, KDU-CSL, SZ) has 100 seats and the
left-wing coalition (CSSD, KSCM) has 100 seats. Turnout was
unexpectedly high, averaging almost 65% nationwide, compared
to 58% four years ago. The country was more or less split in
half, with CSSD winning in the Moravian (eastern) half of the
country and ODS winning the Bohemian (western) half. The
only exception was the electoral district around Usti Nad
Labem in Bohemia, where Paroubek won a close race against
current Mayor Petr Gandalovic (ODS).


3. (SBU) President Klaus (ODS honorary chairman) made a
statement after the results were announced by the Czech
Statistical Officer, saying he will meet with ODS Chair Mirek
Topolanek on June 4 to "begin post-election talks." Under
normal circumstances, the President would have limited
influence over the formation of a new government. However,
given Klaus' strong personality and the current stalemate, we
expect Klaus to, once again, try and push the envelope on the
powers and practices of the Office of the President.


4. (U) Hours after the polls closed on June 3, Paroubek gave
a speech acknowledging that while it was tradition to make a
gesture of congratulations to the winning side, he would not
do so. Instead, he gave a biting speech full of sour grapes
and vitriolic attacks on ODS for its history of corruption
when previously in government (eight years ago),and for
their dirty tricks in the recent campaign (Note: Paroubek is
referring to testimony by the head of the State Police
Organized Crime Unit to the Parliamentary Defense and
Security Committee only three days before the election, in
which he reported that the current government has ties to
organized crime and has interfered in and restricted his
unit's investigation into certain cases. End Note.) The
speech did not contain any traditional olive branch gesture.
Instead, Paroubek ended his speech with, "at this time, ODS
cannot form a majority government, and Topolanek and Klaus
know it!"


5. (SBU) Milan Ekert, a CSSD parliamentarian who did not run
in this election, told poloff that the only way forward was
to remove both Paroubek and Topolanek and let others in the
two large parties negotiate a way forward. There is no sign
that Paroubek would consider a grand coalition. In fact, he
announced on June 4 that he was ready to take the party in to
opposition, and could even see supporting a minority ODS
government on some issues. It is not clear, however, whether
CSSD as a whole shares his view. At ODS headquarters, Prague
Major Pavel Bem, the most likely replacement for Topolanek as
ODS Party Chair, rejected the idea of a grand coalition. ODS
Deputy Chair Petr Necas also reacted to Paroubek's speech,
saying that if Paroubek was speaking on behalf of CSSD, a
grand coalition would not be possible. ODS has said that in
the event of a tie, they would prefer a temporary government

PRAGUE 00000607 002.2 OF 002


of apolitical technocrats, followed by early elections.
However, early elections are difficult under the Czech
constitution. Topolanek has promised to resign if he is not
able to form the next government.


6. (U) One element of surprise during this election was that
the Communists fared worse than predicted, with only 12.8% of
the vote, down roughly 6% from 2002. The party will
consequently lose 15 of its current 41 seats in Parliament.
Given the poor results, Party Chair Vojtech Filip submitted
his resignation to the party's executive board, but the board
rejected it. On the morning of June 4, Filip conceded ODS
victory in the elections and suggested a "coalition of
national accord," whereby all five parties crossing the 5%
threshold to enter Parliament would take part until early
elections take place, which could take half a year.


7. (U) The Christian Democrats came in fourth with 7.2%. The
party failed to reach the 5% threshold in five of the 14
electoral districts, but did well enough in its strongholds
(Zlin and Visocina) to win 12 seats, down from the current

21. Foreign Minister Cyril Svoboda, Deputy Party Chair and
rival of Party Chair Miroslav Kalousek, said that if he had
promised 10% as Kalousek did and failed to deliver, he would
consider stepping down. Kalousek accepted responsibility for
the party's poor showing but refused to step down, saying
that this was not the time to settle internal party issues.


8. (U) The Greens became a parliamentary party for the first
time, but will have only 6 seats. Their lower-than-expected
number of Parliamentary seats could make the untested party
less of a concern for potential partners. Green Party
Chairman Martin Bursik reacted to Paroubek's biting
post-election speech by saying that there was no way the
party would negotiate with him. "We won't even take their
calls now," noted Bursik.


9. (U) The European Democrats (SNK-ED),led by former Prague
Mayor Jan Kasl, won 2.1%, not enough to enter Parliament.
However, they did cross over the 1.5% threshold for receiving
state election funding, which means they will be able to
operate until the next elections.

10. (SBU) COMMENT: The only thing that is certain is that the
country could be facing a prolonged period of uncertainty.
Party leaders will begin protracted closed-door negotiations
on a way out of the impasse with few prospects of a clear
satisfying way forward. This is now the third election in a
row that has not resulted in a clear mandate. Many
politicians are already discussing ways to change the
electoral system to try and address such outcomes, although
that, too, will depend on how the current impasse plays out.
DODMAN