CZECHS HOST COUNCIL OF EUROPE CONFERENCE ON BELARUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRAGUE 000222

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NCE, EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM BO EZ
SUBJECT: CZECHS HOST COUNCIL OF EUROPE CONFERENCE ON BELARUS

REF: A. PRAGUE 0204


B. PRAGUE 0068

Classified By: Acting DCM Michael Dodman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary. The Czech MFA hosted a Council of Europe
(COE) Conference on Belarus February 22. The Conference was
attended by Belarusian democratic opposition members,
delegates of numerous CE member states, and NGOs active in
Belarus. The COE delegates discussed the value of (1)
increasing access to free media in Belarus, (2) facilitating
international travel for ordinary Belarusians (but not
members of the Lukashenko regime),(3) urging Russia to play
a substantive role in ensuring a fair election, and (4)
establishing a COE information office in Minsk. Although the
Russian COE delegate did not expressly disagree with any of
these points, he argued a Lukashenko victory and democracy
are not mutually exclusive. (Some COE delegates openly
criticized his views.) The Belarusian opposition members were
impressively united and spoke with one voice. They described
the worsening political repression in Belarus. They requested
specific assistance from the international community,
including additional funding to print and quickly disseminate
opposition campaign materials. They also strongly urged
election monitors to stay on after the election to prevent
retaliatory violence ordered by the GOB. Following the
Conference, COE president Rene Van Der Linden called for an
end to isolation for the Belarusian people, and proposed the
opening of a COE office in Minsk. Ambassador Cabaniss met
privately with opposition members on the margins of the
Conference. End Summary.


2. (U) Ambassador Cabaniss and Poloff attended the February
22 Conference in Prague. Czech FM Cyril Svoboda and COE
President Rene Van Der Linden chaired the event, which was
attended by members of Alexander Milinkevich's democratic
opposition party, including Vincuk Viachorka (Milinkevich's
foreign policy advisor),Jaroslav Romanchuk, Stanislaw
Shushkevich, and Sergie Ivanovich Kalyakin (of the
democratically minded Belarus Party of Communists). COE
participants included the foreign ministers of Slovakia and
Hungary, and foreign ministry, parliamentary, and embassy
representatives from Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Turkey,
Romania, Russia, and others. In addition, several NGOs
attended, including Czech NGO People in Need, Polish NGO East
European Democratic Center (EEDC),and the German Marshall
Fund.


3. (U) Conference discussions addressed: (1) worsening
conditions in Belarus, (2) CE proposals to assist Belarus,
(3) opposition requests for assistance, (4) the importance of
Russian cooperation, and (5) post-election issues.

--------------
Conditions in Belarus: Bad and Getting Worse
--------------


4. (U) According to the spokesmen for the Belarusian
opposition members, Vincuk Viachorka and Jaroslav Romanchuk,
political repression is increasing. Belarusian voters are
regularly prevented from meeting with Milinkevich (e.g.,
meeting places are closed by the KGB at the last minute,
etc.). Those who do meet him face GOB harassment. Political
arrests and detentions in Belarus are on the rise. For
example, the day before the Conference the Belarusian KGB
searched the apartments of 12 opposition supporters and made
arrests.


5. (SBU) Viachorka said the GOB plans to "isolate" the
opposition on election day (March 19),perhaps using
"detention, narcotic drugs, or even weapons." (Note: no
further information was provided.) He said the recent arrests
are merely "training" for the GOB repression planned for the
eve of the election.


6. (U) Harassment of foreign diplomats who are assisting the
opposition, such as Czech Charge d'Affaires Ruml, has also
increased (ref A). Opposition members claimed Lukashenko's
repressive actions show he fears losing the election.

--------------
CE Proposals to Assist Belarus
--------------


7. (U) During the Conference, COE delegates focused on the

PRAGUE 00000222 002 OF 004


importance of democracy, fair elections, and bringing Belarus
back into the European family. They disagreed on how to
achieve these goals. Some delegates supported harsh sanctions
if the GOB fails to reform. Others urged constructive
engagement on the grounds that the policy of isolation has
led nowhere. The Russian COE delegate, Viktor Kolesnikov, a
member of the Russian Duma, disagreed that a Lukashenko
victory would be presumptively unfair (see section on Russia
below).


8. (U) In general, the delegates believe the COE should: (1)
provide Belarusians greater access to independent media, (2)
improve opportunities for international travel and education
for ordinary Belarusians, (3) urge Russia to play a
substantive role in ensuring a fair election, and (4)
establish a COE information office in Minsk.


9. (U) Additionally, some delegates had specific proposals:

-- Czech FM Cyril Svoboda repeatedly challenged President
Lukashenko to consent to a televised political debate with
Milinkevich.

-- COE President Rene Van Der Linden proposed to travel to
Belarus to meet with members of the GOB.

-- Slovak FM Eduard Kukan urged continued transatlantic
cooperation, and noted NGO cooperation is an important
element of foreign policy.

-- Latvian Dep FM Vaira Paegle said Latvia, as Belarus'
neighbor, has observed that democracy has entered Belarus by
creeping incrementally across the border. She urged the
international community to find "new and surprising" ways to
foster "creeping democracy."

-- The Estonian delegate urged the international community
to: (1) coordinate its efforts, (2) reassess communication
programs periodically to confirm they remain effective, (3)
ensure Belarusians receive a European standard of education,
and (4) remain flexible when awarding funding to Belarusian
NGOs to ensure funds reach NGOs who will support EU values.
(Note: the last point was also emphasized by Pawel Kazancki,
Chairman of Polish NGO EEDC, in a roundtable discussion with
the opposition members on the margins of the Conference.
Kazancki explained most Belarusian NGOs have been
deregistered by the GOB. He also urged support for Belarusian
youth groups, such as Zubr.)

--------------
Opposition Requests for Assistance
--------------


10. (U) The opposition members, through their spokesmen,
agreed on the need for free media, election monitoring,
international travel opportunities for ordinary Belarusians,
and post-election support. They also made specific requests:

-- First, Belarusians need to know about the opposition's
pro-democracy platform. The opposition requested funds to
print additional campaign flyers and distribute them as
quickly as possible. (Note: the opposition said it has about
five cents per registered voter to print and distribute
campaign materials. They said these funds do not adequately
cover the transportation costs of campaign volunteers.
Gabriela Dlouha, Director of the Czech MFA's Transition
Cooperation Unit (TRANS),previously cited the transportation
cost issue as a "gap" in donor funding.) The opposition's
campaign wish list also includes funds to purchase
advertising on Russian and European television channels that
can be viewed in Belarus.

-- Second, as a result of the denial of access to the
electronic media and Lukashenko's pre-election repression of
the democratic opposition, the opposition members asked the
international community not to recognize a Lukashenko victory
as valid. With respect to election monitoring, they urged
monitors to pay close attention to exit interview results.
They strongly urged monitors to stay for a time after the
election, in the hope that the presence of hundreds of
monitors might deter government-ordered retaliatory violence.
(Note: the delegates of Romania, Estonia, Ukraine, and
Lithuania all promised to provide monitors.)

-- Third, the opposition members urged the international

PRAGUE 00000222 003 OF 004


community to facilitate the travel of ordinary Belarusians to
other countries so that Belarusians can experience the
benefits of living in a free society. On the other hand, the
opposition members advocated harsh travel restrictions for
the regime's worst offenders (e.g., those responsible for
disappearances, or those who have expelled students from
universities for their political views, etc.).

-- Finally, the opposition members urged the international
community to stay engaged after the election. Their spokesmen
suggested ongoing constructive dialogue with Lukashenko, and
asked the international community to continue efforts to
increase the capacity of civil society (ref B).


11. (U) The opposition members expressed gratitude for
international support. Of particular note, Romanchuk
enthusiastically praised U.S. Ambassador Krol, of Embassy
Minsk, whom he called "the right man for the job."
Shushkevich also praised the U.S. and German Embassies for
helping him obtain the papers needed to travel to Prague to
attend the Conference.

--------------
Russian Cooperation: Fact of Fiction?
--------------


12. (U) All of the speakers stressed the importance of
cooperation with Russia to ensure a fair election in Belarus.
Russian delegate Viktor Kolesnikov, a member of the Russian
Duma, said Russia wants Belarus to become a democratic,
stable, and prosperous country with close links to Europe.
Yet he disagreed that a Lukashenko victory is inconsistent
with these goals. He asserted Lukashenko was democratically
elected and Belarusians are still happy with him. Kolesnikov
said he has traveled extensively throughout Belarus, and
everywhere people have expressed their strong support for
Lukashenko. In his view, external support of the opposition
party could actually harm Belarus. He urged the West to
respect "Slav traditions," which come from "mother's milk."
He also prescribed a drawn-out democratic transition:
evolution rather than revolution.


13. (U) Following these statements, Latvian Dep FM Paegle
asked rhetorically whether Russia is part of the problem or
the solution. Czech delegate Jazub quipped that due to his
popularity, Lukashenko will surely get 103% of the vote.


14. (U) Romanchuk said Milinkevich favors a strong strategic
relationship with Russia. He said a Milinkevich government
would actually be to Russia's advantage because it would
permit free trade and provide better protection for Russian
investors in Belarus. He pointed out, however, that Russia
provides substantial aid to Belarus (roughly 15% of Belarus'
GDP). He said this aid gives the appearance of support for
the Lukashenko regime.

--------------
Post-Election
--------------


15. (U) The COE delegates did not focus on post-election
issues.


16. (U) The opposition is convinced Milinkevich could win if
the election was fair (but they do not expect it to be). They
said the democratic opposition is campaigning fairly and is
not trying to fuel a color revolution. The opposition members
did not predict defeat outright, but said their goal is to
achieve at least 40-45% of the votes. They believe such
numbers would demonstrate strong public awareness and support
of Milinkevich and democratic values.


17. (U) If Lukashenko stays in power, the opposition members
said their coalition, which they claim represents 92% of the
democratically minded organizations in Belarus, will remain
intact. They will continue distributing information.

--------------
Ambassador Cabaniss' Meeting
--------------


18. (SBU) Ambassador Cabaniss met privately with opposition
members on the margins of the conference (the meeting was
also attended by Marek Toman, of the MFA's Transition
Cooperation Unit). The Ambassador expressed USG support for

PRAGUE 00000222 004 OF 004


the opposition's cause and commended their courage. The
opposition members thanked the Ambassador, described the
union of the democratic opposition party and its
pro-democracy platform, and detailed some of the challenges
they face in the run-up to the election.

--------------
Upcoming events
--------------


19. (U) Hungarian FM Somogyi Ferenc announced Hungary has
invited Milinkevich to attend the March 9 Visegrad-4
(Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland) foreign
ministers meeting in Budapest.


20. (U) Slovakian FM Kukan announced a conference in
Bratislava April 25-26 to provide an opportunity to evaluate
results of the Belarusian election.

--------------
Comments
--------------


21. (C) Comment. This Conference is another example of the
GOCR's commitment to promoting democracy in Belarus. FM
Svoboda chaired the event, which was organized by Gabriela
Dlouha and her TRANS staff, with the assistance of Czech NGO
People in Need. The MFA also hosted dinners and NGO
roundtables on the margins of the Conference. Following the
Conference, Marek Toman, TRANS, confirmed approximately 25
Czechs will serve as OSCE election monitors in Belarus,
including himself, Dlouha, and other officials from the MFA
and the Czech parliament.


22. (C) Comment continued. At the Conference itself, the
cohesiveness of the opposition delegation was striking,
especially considering the range of ideologies espoused by
its individual members (whom belong to political parties on
the right, the left, and the democratic Belarusian Party of
Communists). It is also worth noting the Russian delegate was
alone in his comments supporting Lukashenko, which drew some
criticism and even polite derision from other delegates. Yet
COE speakers continued to emphasize the importance of
Russia's role in ensuring a fair election. In discussions on
the sidelines, Conference participants told Poloff Russia
appears to be moving away from its previously neutral
position on Lukashenko, and now seems to tacitly support him.
CABANISS