CZECH POLITICS: DEJA VU AS TOPOLANEK READIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001529

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH POLITICS: DEJA VU AS TOPOLANEK READIES
ANOTHER CABINET FOR POSSIBLE APPROVAL

Classified By: Pol-Econ Counselor Mike Dodman for reasons 1.4 b+d


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The meandering and unpredictable
negotiations on the formation of a new Czech government took
another strange turn December 14 when nearly completed talks
on a partnership between the Civic Democrats (ODS) and Social
Democrats (CSSD) collapsed. Prime Minister-designate Mirek
Topolanek (ODS) has instead retrieved from the files a plan
for a three-party coalition with the Christian Democrats
(KDU-CSL) and the Greens that had failed months ago.
Topolanek now says he will present the names of a new cabinet
to President Klaus by Thursday, December 21, and that a vote
of confidence could be held mid-January. The three parties
still have a number of significant, even fundamental policy
disagreements to resolve, not to mention the need to win over
someone from the opposition to pass a vote of confidence and,
more important, make sure the coalition will be able to enact
legislation. If Topolanek fails, it would likely be the end
of his tenure as party chief and lead to many more months of
negotiations. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Six and a half months after the inconclusive
elections that resulted in a 100-100 right-left split, Mirek
Topolanek, the Chairman of the right-of-center ODS, has
returned to a plan he abandoned more than four months ago.
After coming close to final agreement with CSSD on what would
essentially have been a grand coalition, Topolanek announced
December 13 that he was calling off the deal and would
instead form a government with two smaller parties, the
Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and the Greens. Topolanek has
promised to present a new cabinet to President Klaus on
December 21; half of the cabinet posts will apparently go to
his potential junior partners. In a TV talk show appearance
with the other party chiefs on December 17, Topolanek
promised a vote of confidence in mid-January. He and
newly-elected KDU-CSL Chair Jiri Cunek promised a government
program committed to much-needed economic reforms. But where
Cunek seems enthusiastic about the coalition's prospects, the
Greens' leader, Martin Bursik (who, unlike Cunek, has been
engaged in this process for over six months),is less
certain. So far the Greens have only agreed to talk about a
possible coalition. Bursik, who refused to be a part of the
planned rainbow coalition because none of this party's
environmental concerns were addressed, has said he is
concerned about several points ODS and KDU-CSL are proposing.
Bursik also has reservations about the new KDU-CSL Chairman
himself, who rose to prominence after evicting several
rent-defaulting Roma families from the town he governed.
Bursik termed this an "an unacceptable violation of human
rights."


3. (U) Beyond the program differences, there is the more
fundamental question of votes. The proposed ODS-KDU-Green
coalition would have 100 of the 200 seats in the Chamber of
Deputies, not enough to win a vote of confidence that
requires a simple majority of those present, which is why
Topolanek abandoned an attempt to form the same coalition
after months of effort this summer. If, however, one or more
Social Democrats were to support the coalition, or at least
absent themselves on the day of the confidence vote, the new
government could be approved. The difference from last
summer is that two CSSD parliamentarians, Michal Pohanka and
Milos Melcak, have recently quit the CSSD parliamentary club.
Early in December, during the final weeks of the legislative
year, Pohanak and Melcak were absent during several key
votes, making it hard to predict what they might do in the
vote of confidence. A third CSSD parliamentarian, Anna
Curdova, has also made statements that indicate she might
support the ODS-led coalition.


4. (SBU) However, while these turncoats offer new
possibilities, there are political difficulties with this
scenario. Earlier this year, when it looked as though CSSD
Chairman Jiri Paroubek might have been able to form a
government that relied on a few rebels from the right side of
the political spectrum, President Klaus vowed that he would
not appoint a government that relied on defectors. Pavel Bem,
the Principal Deputy Chairman of ODS, also recently said that
a government that relies on a few turncoats "makes no sense."
KDU-CSL Chairman Jiri Cunek, who was just elevated to the
position December 9, vowed during his acceptance speech to
not support a government that depended on the votes of a few
traitors, calling it "immoral." However, with the political
calculations here changing daily, all of these sentiments may
be quickly forgotten if ODS can swing a deal with one of the
CSSD defectors.


5. (C) Speculation has begun about possible names on the
government list Topolanek promises to present Thursday -- a
process made simpler by the fact that ODS and the two smaller
parties had agreed on a cabinet distribution in the summer

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(albeit with KDU-CSL under different leadership). ODS is to
get seven of the 14 ministries, the Christian Democrats five,
and the Greens two. Candidates for Foreign Minister include
the incumbent, Alexander Vondra (ODS),and his predecessor,
Cyril Svoboda (KDU-CSL). Both are supporters of strong
transatlantic ties. Among the names mentioned as Defense
Minister is Vlasta Parkanova (KDU-CSL). She has been mildly
supportive of the idea of a missile defense base in the Czech
Republic. While she has experience as Justice Minister and on
parliament's defense committee, it is generally agreed that
she would be a relatively weak defense minister. Former
KDU-CSL Chairman Miroslav Kalousek is mentioned as a possible
Finance Minister. Green Chairman Martin Bursik has been named
as a potential Environment Minister, a move that could have
consequences for any plans to increase the use of nuclear
power. There is broad speculation that current Finance
Minister Tlusty (ODS) will not be in the next cabinet,
following his decision to abstain in last week's vote on the
budget. Current ODS ministers Necas (Labor) Langer
(Interior) and Julinek (Health) are likely to stay. All
current non-party ministers are expected to depart, including
Defense Minister Sedivy.


6. (C) COMMENT. Topolanek's latest proposal offers positives
and negatives for the USG. On the plus side, it would be a
government committed to economic reform and strong
transatlantic ties. But it would be very weak. If Topolanek
succeeds in winning Green support for a common program, and
in getting the President to appoint a government without a
firm majority, and in winning the vote of confidence (all
difficult but achievable),it is still hard to see the
government being effective. The most likely CSSD defector to
support this coalition, Milos Melcak, is from the far left of
his party and openly admits he wants the center-right
coalition to take office so CSSD can go into opposition and
not compromise on its socialist values; he will not be a
reliable vote for any serious economic reform measures.
Cunek and others have admitted that such a government may
have a short shelf life, proposing that each vote on core
legislation (e.g., economic reforms) be a vote of confidence,
the hopes that a "noble" fall of the government will pave the
way to early elections.


7. (C) More broadly, the seemingly endless and unpredictable
post-election talks call into question the integrity of the
negotiating process and the maturity of Czech political
culture, subjects we will explore in more detail septel. If,
as is likely, Topolanek loses his second vote of confidence,
we can look forward to many more months of negotiation and
caretaker government since the third attempt, which relies on
the Speaker of Parliament, not the President, will probably
be preceded by a debate over a new Speaker. This is not
necessarily reason for concern, as the current caretaker
government has done surprisingly well, although certainly it
has been supported by a strong economy and stable external
situation -- conditions that may not continue, particularly
as the long-term costs of not addressing economic reform
grow. But, as embarrassed as Czechs are by the on-going
saga, they also remind us that events of the last half-year
at least prove that Czech democracy is firmly grounded, if
perhaps not yet fully developed.
MUNTER