CZECH REPUBLIC: TOPOLANEK TO MAKE SECOND ATTEMPT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001384

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH REPUBLIC: TOPOLANEK TO MAKE SECOND ATTEMPT
AT GOVERNMENT; CSSD MAY SUPPORT


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Czech President Klaus will give outgoing
Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek the second chance at forming a
government. Klaus will make the announcement on November 8.
Topolanek, whose minority government lost a vote of
confidence in early October, has said he will focus again on
a short-term government leading to new elections next year.
While Klaus's decision to give Topolanek the second chance
was a surprise, equally surprising has been the reaction of
CSSD Chairman Paroubek that he would support an ODS minority
government, or an ODS-CSSD grand coalition, provided that
elections are held in 2008. This could provide a way out of
the political stalemate that has been in effect for five
months. END SUMMARY


2. (U) President Klaus surprised observers by announcing on
November 6 that he would give ODS Chairman and outgoing PM
Mirek Topolanek the second chance to form a government
(Topolanek's minority government, formed in early September
after months of negotiations in the wake June 3 elections
that produced a divided parliament, lost a vote of confidence
on October 3). Klaus was apparently frustrated that a
proposal he had made to party leaders on November 3 for a
coalition of all parties except the Communists had been
rejected immediately by Social Democratic (CSSD) Chairman
Jiri Paroubek. Klaus declared that he had been frustrated in
his efforts to break the political deadlock -- openly blaming
Paroubek for obstructing his efforts -- and said he had no
choice but to turn to the head of the largest party in
parliament. The reaction of Topolanek and other ODS leaders
made clear that Klaus's announcement had not been previously
coordinated. But after a meeting on November 7 with Klaus,
Topolanek announced that he would accept the challenge to
form a new government, which Klaus said he would formally
offer on November 8. (Note: At that time the President will
ask Topolanek to put together a cabinet for his approval.
Topolanek's outgoing government remains in place during this
period. Only once Topolanek has assembled a new cabinet and
new government program that is acceptable to the President
will his new government -- assuming Topolanek himself is at
the head of it -- take over from the old cabinet. From that
day the new government has 30 days to seek a vote of
confidence. If it fails, a new and likely more complicated
period of horsetrading begins since the Speaker of the
Parliament, rather than the President, has the authority to
designate the person to form the third government. The
current Speaker, from CSSD, has pledged repeatedly that he
will resign from his position if the second government
attempt fails. End note)


3. (SBU) Topolanek has said he will begin negotiations with
all parties. But also made clear that he continues to prefer
a caretaker government arrangement leading to new elections
early next year. Other party leaders have also spoken out
since the President's announcement. The Christian Democrats
have said they prefer a rainbow coalition of all parties,
excluding the Communists. For their part the Communists say
they want a rainbow coalition of all parties. The Greens
reject have rejected a rainbow coalition or any arrangement
that puts off elections for too long; like ODS they prefer a
caretaker government and elections in mid 2007. The ODS
Minister for Regional Development, Petr Gandalovic, had told
the Ambassador on November 3 that his party is against a
non-partisan caretaker government for more than six months
since such a government would have an enormous effect on
public policy without a mandate from the people.


4. (SBU) The most surprising comments have come from CSSD
Chairman Paroubek. After stating for weeks that he deserved
a chance to form a government, Paroubek has reacted to the
President's announcement by saying that he is open to working
with an ODS-led government under certain conditions.
Paroubek said that CSSD could support an ODS-minority
government, or could form a grand coalition with ODS, so long
as elections were held in late 2008. Paroubek has long been
fixated on this date. He clarified his preferences by
proposing that early national elections could be held in
conjunction with the Senate and provincial elections already
scheduled for the fall of 2008. The Social Democrats
traditionally do not do well in those elections, but might do
better if they were combined with a general election.


5. (SBU) The backdrop for Topolanek's second attempt at
government formation is the ODS Party Congress that takes
place in Prague November 17-18 and which will elect new
leadership. After clear successes in the parliamentary,
senate and local elections this year, and now with a fresh
mandate to form a government, Topolanek appears to be assured
of maintaining his position. But there is an active race
underway for deputy positions. Prague Mayor Pavel Bem (ODS),

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frequently mentioned as a possible Prime Minister and
Topolanek rival, is believed to have his eye on the number
two spot, currently held by Labor Minister Necas. Bem has
kept a very low profile of late; despite a resounding ODS
victory in the Prague city council races last month, Bem has
yet to finalize negotiations over the coalition that will run
the city council, apparently out concern that a coalition
with CSSD at the municipal level might hurt his chances of
becoming the party's Deputy Chair. Although Bem had been
part of the team that negotiated Topolanek's first
government, he will not be part of the team working on the
second. That team will include Topolanek, Necas, and Petr
Tluchor, Chairman of the party's parliamentary caucus.


6. (SBU) COMMENT. By keeping Bem off of his negotiating team,
Topolanek is demonstrating increasing confidence in his own
control over the sometimes divided ODS. A victory for
Topolanek supporters in the votes for party chairs next week
will boost Topolanek and perhaps increase the likelihood that
his second attempt at government formation is more successful
than his first. CSSD's surprisingly constructive approach is
obviously another reason for optimism that this week could
mark a turning point in the 24 week old stalemate. Although
we have seen enough twists and turns in this process to be
cautious about predicting success for Topolanek. There are
reasons for concern about the road ahead, including the date
of an election. While there is always a concern about what
impact the political situation could have on a possible USG
offer of missile defense facilities, there is also that fact
that a late 2008 election means the Czechs would begin their
January 2009 EU presidency with potentially a brand new
government. Still, a second Topolanek government -- if it
succeeds -- could look very much like the current government,
which includes a number of strong ministers and a generally
pro-U.S. stance. END COMMENT
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