CZECH REPUBLIC: AMBASSADOR'S COURTESY CALL ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001379

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NCE EFICHTE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH REPUBLIC: AMBASSADOR'S COURTESY CALL ON
FORMER PRIME MINISTER AND CSSD CHIEF JIRI PAROUBEK

REF: PRAGUE 1356

Classified By: AMB RICHARD GRABER FOR REASONS 1.4 B + D


1. (C) SUMMARY During an October 30 courtesy call by
Ambassador Graber, former Prime Minister and current Chairman
of the Social Democrats (CSSD) Jiri Paroubek said U.S.-Czech
ties were very good, "with the exception of a few minor
issues, such as visas." Paroubek called himself "a friend of
the U.S." Paroubek, still behaving very much like a man
competing for public office, left the door open on talks
about hosting a radar station as part of a ballistic missile
defense system, and explained his preferences for ways out of
the ongoing political stalemate - a grand coalition with his
rivals the Civic Democrats (ODS),or a minority CSSD
government that would rely, among others, on support from the
Communist Party. END SUMMARY


2. (C) The Ambassador's courtesy call came just after the
second round of voting to the Senate, in which the
center-right ODS scored a decided victory, winning a simple
majority in the upper house. It was the ODS's third victory
in a row, after the general election in June and local
elections October 20-21 (Reftel). Some CSSD party elders are
starting to grumble that Paroubek is to blame for the recent
defeats by ODS. Paroubek, however, said he felt the Senate
vote would have little impact on negotiations to form the
next government. Paroubek predicted that President Klaus will
choose somebody from ODS to lead the talks on forming the
next government, though he cautioned that Klaus, "will not
want to risk wasting another chance," hinting that somebody
other than Topolanek might be the next Prime Minister.
Paroubek stuck to his long standing position in favor of a
grand coalition between ODS and CSSD, though ODS continues to
reject this. Paroubek said that it had been impossible to
speak of a grand coalition before the general and Senate
elections, but that it should be openly discussed now. He
pointed to the many ODS-CSSD coalitions being formed at the
municipal level as evidence that there is no ideological
reason the parties cannot share power. He said an ODS-CSSD
government would be neither right-of-center nor
left-of-center, but centrist.


3. (C) Paroubek said his alternative solution would be a
minority CSSD government supported by several parties in
parliament. He claimed he already has 103 votes in support
of such a government, three more than needed to pass a vote
of confidence. Paroubek raised the issue of Communists
support for a potential CSSD minority government,
acknowledging that such an arrangement was cause for concern
in Washington. Paroubek emphasized that the Communist Party
(KSCM) would not have any positions in the cabinet. Paroubek
said CSSD has made it clear that any such arrangement would
not include withdrawal from NATO, or withdrawal of Czech
troops deployed overseas. Paroubek pointed proudly to the
assertion that under his administration, the foreign role of
Czech troops had been strengthened. He also said that during
his time as PM the left-wing faction within CSSD was kept
under control.


4. (C) Paroubek said CSSD and KSCM still have "significantly
different views on many issues - mainly related to foreign
missions in Iraq and Afghanistan." He said he has made these
deployments part of the package that KSCM must accept if it
were to "cooperate with CSSD on the level of government."
Paroubek added that, "frankly speaking, if they were to
accept these and other reforms, KSCM would become like the
Social Democrat party, something I don't see them doing in
the near term." Paroubek confided that he would like to take
away another 5% support from KSCM (currently enjoying roughly
13% popular support),leaving the party with a smaller
"Stalinist core that nobody would want to deal with."


5. (C) On the question of early elections, which some in the
media have said CSSD wishes to avoid, Paroubek sipped his
green tea and responded, "the media have done all they can to
destroy me. There is nothing more they could do. I've
nothing to fear. My nerves are fine." Paroubek said CSSD is
getting more than 30% support in polls, a level it has never
before seen between elections. He stressed that he does NOT
fear early elections.


6. (C) On missile defense, Paroubek complained that the USG
had not done enough to involve him as Prime Minister in
bilateral talks. He said that when he took over as Prime
Minister in early 2005 he had no idea what missile defense
was all about (note: talks with the Czechs had begun in
2002). Paroubek argued that he would have prepared a better

PRAGUE 00001379 002 OF 002


"marketing scheme" to influence public opinion had he been
better informed by the U.S. side. He said the U.S. couldn't
have planned it worse in the sense of timing, coinciding with
the June general election, and then the fall Senate election.
Paroubek said that not long ago former President Havel asked
him why he was opposed to a missile defense facility.
Paroubek said he explained to Havel that "if I agreed with
hosting a base, CSSD would lose 3-5% of its support to KSCM."
Paroubek stressed that the position he took as CSSD Chairman
was different than the position he took as Prime Minister.


7. (C) The Ambassador asked Paroubek whether he recognizes a
difference between a missile facility and a radar site.
Paroubek said, without waiting for the question to be
translated, "yes." Paroubek said he has been choosing his
words carefully, to say "facility," or "station" instead of
base. He said that even though opinion polls show 60% of the
public opposes any kind of base, he feels a "radar station"
can be pursued and is ready to discuss it further with U.S.
officials.


8. (C) During the visit, Paroubek explained that the first
post-communist leader of CSSD had been Jiri Horak. At the
time Paroubek had been General Secretary of CSSD. Horak
emigrated to the United States after the Communists took over
in 1948, became an American citizen and eventually spent 40
years in America. Paroubek said that Horak's views on
politics were strongly influenced by his four decades in the
United States, and added that Horak's views strongly
influenced his own. Paroubek said this was particularly the
case when it came to opinion polls, which were for Horak,
"more than a hobby." Paroubek admitted that he follows polls
very closely.


9. (C) COMMENT. Paroubek made no mention of the plans for a
caretaker government of experts, being openly pursed by
several of the other political parties, as well as President
Klaus. He also may be overestimating support for his own
party, and is being somewhat disingenuous about his
willingness to face early elections. He is facing criticism
from outsiders, and even from some within his own party, for
CSSD's recent losses to ODS. But he is an aggressive
politician with strong political skills and is likely to play
an important role in Czech politics for the foreseeable
future. Paroubek continues to demonstrate that he can pursue
policies friendly to the United States, though he will do so
with some reservations if those policies are seen as
unpopular in the polls, or if those policies could cause his
party to lose votes to the Communists. END COMMENT.
GRABER