CZECH SENATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS - POSSIBLE IMPACT

UNCLAS PRAGUE 001297

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH SENATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS - POSSIBLE IMPACT
ON PARTY LEADERSHIP, TIMING AND COMPOSITION OF NATIONAL
GOVERNMENT


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. One third of the Czech Senate,s 81 seats
will be contested in two rounds of voting October 20-21 and
27-28. The right-of-center Civic Democrats (ODS),which won
the June 2-3 general election, will defend ten seats, more
than any other party. While it has the most to lose, ODS is
still expected to do the best in the Senate elections,
possibly securing a majority of the chamber. The Christian
Democrats, who are reeling from leadership problems and
sliding popularity, will defend seven seats and are expected
to lose several of them. The Social Democrats are only
defending one seat and hope to gain ground on ODS, though
CSSD is expected to receive less support than it did in June.
The Greens, who only became a parliamentary party in the June
election, and who are not defending any seats, might also
make significant gains. The first round of the Senate vote
will coincide with elections in cities and towns, including
the capital Prague, where ODS is heavily favored. It remains
to be seen whether the elections will lead to any dramatic
developments that help break the political stalemate the
country has been squeezed into since the June poll, or
whether the elections will be little more than a sideshow,
after which the two main parties ODS and CSSD will return to
back-room discussions on some form of power sharing. End
summary.


2. (U) The Czech Senate has only existed since 1993. The
immediate need for the body can be traced to the dissolution
of the Czechoslovak Federal Assembly and the desire to find
places for its members. Partisan squabbles kept the Senate
from being constituted for three years, leaving much of the
public feeling that the body served little purpose. When
elections were finally held in 1996, turnout was roughly 30%.
In the second round of the 2004 Senate elections, turnout in
many districts was in the low to mid teens. Candidates to the
Senate must be 40, whereas candidates to the Chamber of
Deputies need only be 21, also contributing to the notion
that the Senate is a club for retirees and has-beens.


3. (SBU) The Czech Senate has relatively few powers and is by
far the weaker of the two legislative bodies. It can veto
bills passed by the lower house, but that veto can be
overridden by a simple majority of those present in the
Chamber of Deputies. The Senate, along with the Chamber of
Deputies, also elects the President. Not surprisingly,
President Klaus, honorary chair of ODS, who has made no
secret of his desire to be re-elected to a second term in

SIPDIS
2008, will wait until after the elections to select the next
person to try and put together a government that can win a
vote of confidence in the lower house. Marek Benda (ODS),a
member of the lower house since 1990, told post October 3rd
that he felt ODS might win an additional 4 or 5 seats, enough
to give it a majority in the Senate, which "would calm Klaus
down for a while."


4. (U) In elections to the Chamber of Deputies, or lower
house, candidates must be members of political parties or at
least run on party tickets. Voters select parties rather than
individuals, and all parties that receive more than 5% of the
vote nationwide are given a percentage of the seats in
Parliament. Candidates to the Senate, on the other hand, run
as individuals for single constituency seats and needn't be
on the ticket of any party. In addition, a majority system
is used, with a second round of voting if no candidate
receives more than 50% in the first round. This favors the
larger parties, but also allows well-known individuals to run
as independents. The list of Senate candidates includes a
number of actors, singers, TV personalities, and an Olympic
athlete.


5. (SBU) The Senate is currently dominated by ODS, which
holds 37 seats. The next largest party, KDU-CSL, has only 14
seats; CSSD has 7. Jan Hamacek, CSSD deputy and Chairman of
Chamber's Foreign Affairs Committee, thinks that in 15 of the
27 seats being contested, the second round will feature a
CSSD-ODS duel. He thinks CSSD, which is only defending one
seat, will win 4 or 5. Hamacek thinks that KDU-CSL will do
very badly, losing several of the 7 seats they are defending.
He thinks Senate Deputy President Petr Pithart (KDU-CSL) will
win. Hamacek also thinks KDU-CSL also has good chances with a
couple of candidates who are mayors in the largest city in
their electoral districts. Benda told the Embassy he thought
KDU-CSL might come away winning only one seat and exacerbate
the party's "biggest crisis in years."


6. (SBU) If the two biggest parties do well in the Senate
races, they will have constitutional (three-fifths)


majorities in both houses and will be able to change
electoral laws to the detriment of the smaller parties, who
are expected therefore to support each others candidates in
the second round. Dzamila Stehlikova, Deputy Chairperson for
the Green Party and Senate candidate in Chomutov, told post
October 12 that she was convinced ODS and CSSD want to change
the electoral laws and eliminate their smaller competitors.
She explained that the concern is leading to unprecedented
cooperation between small parties. In some races, small
parties are even forming coalitions to take on candidates
from the big parties in the first round. In Litomerice, for
example, Foreign Minister Sasha Vondra is running as an
independent on the ODS ticket against current Senator Zdenek
Barta, who is representing both the Christian Democrats and
the Greens, even though those parties have few ties at the
national level. Hamacek thinks former MP Robert Kopecky, the
CSSD candidate that is running against Vondra, will lose.
Kopecky got only 19% in the last Senate race and failed to
even make it to the second round. Vondra's fate in the
crowded Litomerice field is uncertain. A victory in the
Senate race would have no impact on his tenure as minister --
which in any event will likely end in November if he is not
part of the next cabinet (if he were to both win the Senate
and continue as Foreign Minister, Vondra would not be
eligible to serve on the Senate's Foreign and Security
Committee).


7. (U) Another candidate of interest to Americans is Eliska
Haskova-Coolidge. The daughter of a Prague banker who
happened to be in the U.S. when the Communists took power in
Czechoslovakia in a coup in 1948, she and her mother hastened
to America, where she lived for the next 50 years.
Haskova-Coolidge spent 18 of those years working in the White
House, and an additional nine years at the State Department,
where she became Assistant Chief of Protocol and an alternate
representative to the OAS. She is running on the ODS ticket,
but as an independent, for the seat in Domazlice, currently
held by the retiring CSSD Senator, Petr Smutny. Hamacek
doesn't think she will win due to her relatively weak ties to
local voters. She will face tough competition from Jaroslav
Lobkowicz (KDU-CSL),a former two-term Parliamentarian and
scion of one of Bohemia,s oldest noble families, and Jirina
Rippelova (CSSD) an attorney and mayor of Susice, one of the
largest towns in the electoral district.


8. (SBU) On the municipal level, the biggest race will be in
Prague, where voters will choose from hundreds of candidates.
ODS is expected to win big, but will still need another party
or two to form a coalition to run the city and its various
subdistricts. Current Mayor Pavel Bem (ODS),frequently
mentioned as a potential Prime Minister, is almost certain to
be re-elected (although this is not a direct election:
mayors are chosen by the new city councils). ODS Deputy
Benda even feels that ODS candidates are so certain of
victory in Prague that the elections attract unethical
individuals who see municipal politics as an easy path to
personal wealth.


9. (U) One interesting aspect of the local ballot is that EU
citizens who are permanent residents of the Czech Republic,
but not Czech citizens, have, for the first time, the right
to vote. The Green Party estimates that there are more than
43,000 people in this category and has worked hard to reach
out to them in the belief that this expat constituency will
be sympathetic to the party,s views. The Greens have
produced an information booklet, in English, French and
Polish, walking the non-citizens through the local voting
process. It remains to be seen what role, if any, this group
will play. In the 2004 elections to the European parliament,
only 99 Europeans with long-term residency voted in the Czech
Republic.


10. (U) Money plays an important role in any election and the
local races here are no exception. Czech parties do not hold
fundraising dinners, or rely on the personal wealth of
candidates. Instead, parties receive reimbursement for each
vote they collect, and stipends of 900,000 Crowns (US$41,000)
for each Senate seat they win. Success in one election
provides resources for campaigns in later elections. ODS has
the biggest coffers and consequently the most conspicuous
campaigns. But following their success in the June elections,
Green party candidates have money for posters, bus ads,
office space and staff for the first time in the party,s
existence. If the Christian Democrats do badly, they will not
only lose several seats, but also the income they would need
to rebuild for the future. SNK-ED, the merger of the European


Democrats and the Independents, which won 2.1% of the vote in
the June poll, will try to win seats in Prague to survive as
a party until the next attempt at the 5% threshold for
representation in parliament. Four years ago, before the
merger, ED came in second in Prague, with 15 seats, and
should have received 15 million crowns (US$650,000) from the
state. The money was never paid, which certainly hurt the
party,s chances in the June poll. On October 17, SNK-ED
party leaders were alleging that state officials -- unnamed
but allegedly close to Acting Finance Minister Vlastimil
Tlusty (ODS) -- were willing to arrange the payment in
exchange for a bribe of 3 million crowns (US$130,000).


11. (SBU) COMMENT. The local and Senate elections will take
place at the same time, though they have relatively little to
do with each other. Local elections lead to municipal
coalitions that would be inconceivable at the national level,
such as those involving Communist councilmen. Individuals are
chosen because they have shown the capacity to get things
done. Senate elections are more like lifetime achievement
awards, an honorary position that comes with few expectations
or obligations, and much less of the partisan horse trading
that goes on in the Chamber of Deputies. The Senate, with
only one-third of its seats up for grabs, will not change a
great deal. The Christian Democrats may lose a few seats and
the Greens and the Social Democrats may pick up a few seats.
But national policy will not be affected. The impact of the
local and Senate races is more likely to be seen in the
leadership of the parties, particularly the Civic Democrats
(ODS) who have their annual congress November 17-18, and the
Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL),whose annual gathering will be
in December. Members of the parties' central committees,
who are openly discussing new leadership, could use mediocre
results as a pretext for change. Since the personalities at
the tops of these two parties will play important roles in
the discussion on the next government, the Senate and local
elections could indirectly affect the composition of the next
national government as well. If ODS does very well, current
party Chairman and Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek will have
an easier time defending his leadership position, thus making
it harder for President Klaus to choose anybody else from ODS
to form the next government. If CSSD gets badly beaten by
ODS, as some polls are predicting, CSSD will be less likely
to want to pursue early elections to the Chamber of Deputies
as a solution to the current political stalemate. END
COMMENT.
GRABER