NEW T&T POLITICAL PARTY LOOKS TO DOOKERAN FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT OF SPAIN 000783

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM TD
SUBJECT: NEW T&T POLITICAL PARTY LOOKS TO DOOKERAN FOR
INSPIRATION

REF: A. PORT OF SPAIN 00488


B. PORT OF SPAIN 00676

Classified By: DCM Eugene Sweeney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Gerald Yetming, Member of Parliament
formerly with the United National Congress has forged a new
political party out of three small, struggling parties. The
new party, the Democratic National Alliance, has been formed
in Opposition UNC Political Leader "(Winston) Dookeran's
image." Yetming strongly believes that the Democratic
National Alliance and Dookeran both appeal to a large "third
constituency" of voters dissatisfied with both the ruling and
opposition parties. It remains to be seen if Yetming and
Dookeran will actually join forces and if they will be able
to maintain their momentum with voters to win enough seats to
dictate which party forms the Government. END SUMMARY.

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YETMING'S POLITICAL HISTORY AND PLANS
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2. (C) Political officer met with Gerald Yetming, a Member
of Parliament formerly with the Opposition United National
Congress (UNC) but now a back-bencher attempting to forge a
new political party. Yetming came to the UNC out of the
National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR),and left when
Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj was effectively brought back to the
UNC fold in February (ref A). Yetming claims that Maharaj is
power hungry and an "evil, dangerous person who is not to be
trusted." The only reason, according to Yetming, that Basdeo
Panday brought Maharaj back is so that Maharaj could help
Panday with his legal troubles. Panday's move may have
larger repercussions for the UNC: Yetming asserts that
current Leader of the Opposition Kamla Persad-Bissessar may
be involuntarily warming the seat for Maharaj. Yetming
speculates that Maharaj will eventually be elected as an MP,
possibly from Couva North if Panday either resigns his seat
or is required to give it up while waiting for appeal. If
this is the case, Maharaj will clearly be Panday's "anointed
successor" and the UNC rank-and-file will look to Maharaj to
become Leader of the Opposition. Rather than Maharaj
providing clarity to the UNC leadership, this tension between
him and Persad-Bissessar is only exacerbating the current
leadership crisis in the UNC.


3. (C) After leaving the UNC, Yetming joined the Democratic
National Assembly, a small, struggling political party.
Recently, the Democratic National Assembly joined forces with
the Democratic Political Party of T&T (another small,
marginal party) and the remnants of the NAR to form the
Democratic National Alliance (DNA). Yetming claims that the
DNA only came about because of his leadership.

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DISSATISFIED VOTERS MAY SWING PARLIAMENTARY BALANCE
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4. (C) Yetming believes that, apart from the core supporters
of the UNC and the ruling Peoples' National Movement (PNM),
most Trinbagonians are fed up with politics as they stand
now. He further asserts that this "third constituency" will
likely flock to a party that exhibits clear leadership,
demonstrates effectiveness and is free of corruption. In
Yetming's eyes, Winston Dookeran, embattled Political Leader
of the UNC, fulfills these requirements, as would any non-UNC
party associated with him. Recognizing this, Yetming is
actively courting Dookeran, going so far as to state in a
public forum that the DNA's platform was created "in
Dookeran's image." Yetming believes that Dookeran will
voluntarily leave the UNC rather than wait for the UNC to
expel him. Once this happens, Yetming is unsure if Dookeran
will actually join the DNA or if he will form his own party.
If the latter, Yetming is certain he can form an electoral
coalition with Dookeran when the elections are called.


5. (C) Given the first-past-the-post electoral system and
the ethno-political distribution in T&T, Yetming believes
that a party other than the UNC or the PNM has little chance
of winning more than two or three seats in the lower House of
Representatives. Though numerically small, those few seats
actually confer immense political power on the leader of that
party: the support of those two seats can be enough to
determine which party sits as Government and which as
Opposition, making the head of the small party, in essence, a
kingmaker. Realistically, Yetming hopes that Dookeran would
be able to carry a third party, or a coalition involving the
DNA, to victory in enough constituencies to dictate the power
distribution in Parliament.

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CAN THEY MAINTAIN THE PACE?
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6. (C) COMMENT: Like Dookeran, Yetming's goal seems to be
politics based on issues, not ethnicity. Yet Yetming has a
reputation as a standoff opportunist and lacks Dookeran's
growing public appeal. Further, if Yetming is truly intent
on getting away from personality-based politics, as Dookeran
clearly is, his insistence on Dookeran as key to his plans
seems somewhat hypocritical, or it might be a realistic
reading his own political weaknesses. Interestingly, his
comments about Dookeran's support among the third
constituency echo former UNC Senator Robin Montano's
assessment (ref B). The question is whether or not Dookeran
can maintain his momentum with the people and if Yetming can
ride Dookeran's coattails. It will likely be a long road
until the next general elections, which we anticipate will
not be called before they are required in 2007. END COMMENT.
AUSTIN