PANDAY GRANTED BAIL; DOOKERAN TAKES A BACK BENCH;

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT OF SPAIN 000530

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV KCOR TD
SUBJECT: PANDAY GRANTED BAIL; DOOKERAN TAKES A BACK BENCH;
SPECULATION ON THE UNC'S NEXT MOVES

REF: PORT OF SPAIN 00521 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Ambassador Roy L. Austin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Justice Anthony Carmona of the Port of Spain 6th
Criminal Court granted bail to former Leader of the
Opposition Basdeo Panday on April 28. Panday spent four
nights in the Golden Grove Maximum Security detention center
while his bail application worked its way through the system.
Carmona granted bail based on Panday's medical condition and
"appalling lack of medical facilities" in the prison to treat
his ailments, including cardiac conditions.


2. (U) Across the street, in the Parliament building, United
National Congress (UNC) Political Leader Winston Dookeran
took a seat on the back bench. Marginalized Chief Whip Ganga
Singh joined him there for the first time. Prior to the
start of the session, Dookeran read a statement in which he
announced that his patience is running out and that a cabal
is controlling the day-to-day workings of the UNC to its, and
the country's, detriment. He also stated that this weekend
he will go directly to the UNC's membership to outline his
"perspectives on the prospects of the UNC" and his "options
for mounting a viable mission for rescuing Trinidad and
Tobago from politics that remain stuck in another time."


3. (C) COMMENT: Even though Panday is no longer
incarcerated, he is still not permitted to function as a
Member of Parliament as his conviction carries a two-year
sentence. This will simply make it easier for Panday to make
public appearances and to call the shots in the opposition
UNC as it deals with thorny leadership issues. One of the
first issues will likely be an emergency UNC executive
meeting to replace Dookeran as Political Leader. This is an
important move since the Political Leader has final say over
the party's candidates for parliamentary seats. We will be
surprised if Dookeran is still in his position on Monday. It
is unclear who will take the Political Leader slot once
Dookeran is forced out of it.


4. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: Second, we suspect that Ramesh
Lawrence Maharaj's application to rejoin the party will be
granted. If it is granted, there is a chance that Panday
will step down from his seat as MP from Couva North. The
Speaker of the House can grant deferral of up to 150 days in
30-day increments, pending the outcome of the appeals
process, before the seat of a convicted parliamentarian must
be vacated. Still, there is a chance that Panday will step
down even before his appeal is heard, paving the way for
Maharaj to contest the seat in a by-election. In a
by-election, Maharaj is likely to win easily as Couva is a
UNC stronghold and it would be clear that he was Panday's
anointed successor. Once in the lower House of
Representatives, Maharaj could possibly become Leader of the
Opposition, provided he can garner the support of a majority
of the MPs who do not support the government. This would be
a risky move for the UNC, which has faced internal leadership
squabbles since the beginning of the year, and, rather than
unite the party, force the factions farther apart. Clearly,
the UNC is now officially split as of the moment Dookeran
decided to go to the membership, although he let the cabal do
the dirty work of ousting him. END COMMENT.
AUSTIN