AMBASSADOR'S CONVERSATION WITH DOOKERAN ON CRIME,

UNCLAS PORT OF SPAIN 000405

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TD
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S CONVERSATION WITH DOOKERAN ON CRIME,
POLITICS AND THE AMBASSADOR/GOTT RELATIONSHIP


1) (U) SUMMARY: Ambassador Austin met with opposition UNC
Political Leader Winston Dookeran at a time when it looks as
if the UNC's prolonged internal disarray could ultimately
lead to the party's defeat at the next election. After
Dookeran praised US assistance during the 1990 Jamaat coup
attempt, he and the Ambassador discussed the continuing
crime wave in the country and Dookeran's proposals for
alleviating poverty. They also talked of the split in the
UNC's leadership, Dookeran's vision of a "new politics" and
his own future inside the party or as the leader of some
"third force". Finally, the Ambassador refuted logically
and vigorously Dookeran's perception that the Ambassador is
excessively supportive of the ruling PNM government and not
sufficiently open to Dookeran's own ideas for change. END
SUMMARY.

2) (U) Ambassador Austin met, on March 7, with Winston
Dookeran, Political Leader of the opposition United National
Congress (UNC). Dookeran was forthcoming, honest and, as the
Ambassador openly told him "very likeable". Dookeran was
laudatory about one particular aspect of the USG/GOTT
bilateral relationship. Referring to the Jamaat-al-
muslimeen failed coup attempt of 1990, Dookeran lamented the
fact that the assistance provided to the GOTT at that time
by the FBI's hostage negotiating team has never been
properly acknowledged. When the Ambassador recalled then
president Arthur N.R. Robinson's order to "attack with full
force", Dookeran said that the advice of on-site US
intelligence officers to the GOTT not to follow the
president's order was obviously wise.

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THE SEEMINGLY INSOLUBLE PROBLEM OF CRIME
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3) (U) Ambassador Austin and Dookeran agreed that the crime
they were both familiar with in their youth could not be
compared with the escalating quantity and viciousness of
crime today. Dookeran concurred when the Ambassador said
that the low rate of crime detection and criminal conviction
in T&T tends to give individual criminals and gangs a sense
of impunity and emboldens them to commit more crimes of an
even more daring nature. The Ambassador asked Dookeran
about his attitude toward the Keith Noel 136 Committee led
by Stephen Cadiz. Dookeran said he is sympathetic to
grassroots anti-crime campaigns such as that of the Noel
Committee and had personally participated in the committee's
"death march" of October 2005. He spoke favorably of Cadiz
and his recently-announced referendum on individual rights,
poverty and leadership, and said he and Cadiz speak the same
language.

4) (U) Ambassador Austin and Dookeran agreed that
corruption in the publicly-funded Unemployment Relief
Program and the Community Based Environmental Protections
and Enhancement Program has been an important factor
contributing to the crime surge. Dookeran said he has
proposed market-based solutions to the problem of youth
unemployment as well as other social strategies such as
government purchase of insurance for the financing of
tertiary education for disadvantaged youth. However, the
Ambassador pointed out to Dookeran that many of his
recommendations tend to be abstract and lacking in
specificity, which has led him to wonder if ordinary voters
can understand Dookeran's proposals.

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A SQUARE PEG IN A ROUND HOLE
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5) (U) Dookeran recognized the ambiguity of his position on
the T&T political scene and how totally at odds his placid
personality and seminar-leading style are with T&T's
traditional political culture and with his own party. As he
said to the Ambassador, both the ruling People's National
Movement (PNM) and the UNC subscribe to a cut-throat
political culture which eschews collaboration and compromise
in favor of a central guiding principle-the pursuit of
power. As for his role within the UNC, Dookeran told the
Ambassador that he knew "from day one" that party icon
Basdeo Panday never intended the concept of a split party
leadership to succeed and that Panday would muddy the
leadership waters by retaining for himself the role of
parliamentary opposition leader. This maneuver placed
Dookeran in an almost untenable position.

6) (U) Throughout the past six months, Panday has subjected
Dookeran to the worst indignities and embarrassments he
could muster, omitting to invite him to leadership meetings

and failing to attend Dookeran's own "unity" seminars. In
the name of party unity, Panday fired UNC Senator Robin
Montano, ostensibly for airing the party's dirty linen
before the media, which was quickly followed by the
resignations of two more Dookeran adherents, Senator Roy
Augustus and Member of Parliament Gerald Yetming. Most
recently, against Dookeran's advice, Panday scheduled the
major UNC "unity" rally of February 19, at which Panday's
supporters publicly forgave and welcomed back to the fold
the controversial Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj who is widely
credited with having brought about the defeat of the UNC
government, at the 2002 election.

7) (U) Ever the team player and in his desire to
demonstrate the real party unity he craves, Dookeran joined
Panday, Maharaj and millionaire businessman and deputy
Political Leader Jack Warner on the podium. Dookeran
delivered his standard party-unifying, national consensus-
building speech. However, he was booed by UNC party workers
reportedly ferried to the rally for the purpose. Dookeran
told the Ambassador that, since the rally, many UNC
supporters had apologized to him for the booing. The
Ambassador praised Dookeran for his courage in sticking to
his principles and for delivering his message to at best a
lukewarm and even partly hostile crowd.

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DOOKERAN'S VISION
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8) (U) Dookeran's vision is of a "new politics" comprising
a three fold goal: unity within the UNC; the transformation
of T&T's political culture to one of compromise and
collaboration across the partisan divide in parliament; and
the detribalization of the electorate away from entrenched
racial identities and toward a broader national consensus
based on issues. Dookeran wondered aloud how much time
there is left for T&T to be set on a more permanently stable
political course. He said he believes it is the current
economic bubble fueled by the oil and gas boom which is
keeping the lid on any potential, underlying social
instability. However, Dookeran believes that, if and when
the bubble bursts, the combination of criminality, lack of
confidence in the political system and an economic downturn
may well generate social instability out of which will
emerge what he called "despotic leadership".

9) (U) Perhaps partly out of wishful thinking, Dookeran
told the Ambassador that, even in the two major parties, he
senses the beginnings of a yearning for a new national
identity behind which neither Afro-Trinidadians nor Indo-
Trinidadians will feel threatened and second-rate. He said
he believes the bulk of the UNC's rank-and-file membership
is with him, while acknowledging that the party's
institutions may not be. Even though Dookeran believes he
has more support outside the party than within it, he feels
he must operate from within his party base because otherwise
he will be no more than a voice in the wilderness.

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DOOKERAN'S COMPLAINT
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10) (SBU) Dookeran expressed some frustration with what he
perceived to be the Ambassador's reluctance to ever
criticize the PNM government, and said it is his sense that
the Ambassador believes that any initiative designed to
change the established order will not work. The Ambassador
conceded that he, like other ambassadors, tends to lean
toward collaborating with the government in office rather
than gratuitously confronting it. Moreover, he must avoid
any appearance of involvement in T&T's partisan politics.

11) (U) COMMENT: Dookeran's claim that, outside the UNC
structure, he would be nothing more than a voice in the
wilderness is puzzling. Many of the budding third parties
which have recently sprouted, such as the Democratic
National Assembly and the Movement for National Development,
are theoretically his soul mates. Many of them have sprung
from a segment of the T&T middle class which reportedly
occupies the unaffiliated middle ground of the electorate
and might find Dookeran's calm somewhat professorial style
appealing. Whether because of past disinterest in politics
or because of disgust with corruption or with crime left
unattended, they seem to share with him the desire to do
away with the old tribalized party configuration and move
toward a non-racial, national identity and issue-based
consensus. On the other hand, Dookeran's reluctance to
leave the UNC and attempt to lead this so called "third

force" may simply be a candid admission of his lack of
political organizing skills.

12) (U) COMMENT CONTINUED: If one takes the existing
racially divided electorate and party structure as a given
(and there is no strong reason not to),it is difficult to
see how the UNC can recover sufficiently to present a
winning face to T&T's voters in time for the next election
scheduled for 18 months from now at the most. This
prognosis could change, if Panday were to retire or, by some
unlikely conversion, hand over total leadership to Dookeran.
Otherwise, any patching up of the differences between the
two warring camps in the UNC would be cosmetic only and
unlikely to last. The UNC's fortunes might also change, if
the PNM government were to be overtaken by some massive,
unforeseen public scandal. The only other alternative would
involve taking the long view whereby Dookeran would leave
the UNC, having done his best to cooperate with Panday and
bring the party along with him, and establish the much-
touted "third force" in T&T politics. However, building
that "third force" sufficiently to match the strength of the
PNM would take longer than 18 months, especially given
Dookeran's lack of charisma and a common touch. It would
leave the PNM in power at the next election, but if Dookeran
were to make a credible showing at that time, he may well
have a chance to assume office at the following election.
END COMMENT.