SOLOMONS GETS DICEY - TIME FOR A U.S. STATEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT MORESBY 000188

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EAP PDAS STEPHENS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/26/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR BP
SUBJECT: SOLOMONS GETS DICEY - TIME FOR A U.S. STATEMENT

REF: A) PORT MORESBY 185 B) 4/21 STANTON/EAP E-MAIL

CLASSIFIED BY: Robert Fitts, Ambassador, AMB, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



CLASSIFIED BY: Robert Fitts, Ambassador, AMB, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



1.(C) SUMMARY: The barely-elected government in Solomon Islands
has collapsed. Though constitutional norms have been held to,
the worrisome outcome could be a government incorporating
figures tempted to undercut RAMSI and thus the restoration of
good governance. The population retains a great deal of respect
for the U.S. We strongly recommend that a senior U.S. official
make a statement encouraging Solomon Islanders to continue
working with RAMSI to rebuild their institutions and ensure
their future. END SUMMARY

15 MINUTES OF FAME
2.(U) On April 26, barely five days after being sworn in,
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Rini resigned on the floor of
Parliament. The day before, his government had barely squeaked
through election of a Deputy Speaker with 25 votes out of 50.
That was only made possible by the incarceration of two
opposition supporters and the walk out of the remaining 23. The
collapse was triggered when four members of his coalition,
including three ministers, crossed to the opposition.

OUT WITH THE OLD
3.(SBU) Rini had served as DPM in the previous government and
headed essentially the same coalition this time around. (The
previous Prime Minister was the one who squeaked into the Deputy
Speakers chair.) The coalition had been backed by local ethnic
Chinese businessmen and dogged by charges of under-the-table
funding from Taiwan. Their initial success (27-23) in the new
Parliament had triggered two days of violence, destroying much
of the local Chinatown and led to quick military reinforcement
of RAMSI by Australian and New Zealand troops.

NEW CROWD A DICEY BUNCH
4.(C) The opposition, now 28 or so, is united only by opposition
to the old crowd. However, it includes figures intimately
involved in the ethnic violence that tore the Solomons apart and
a fair share of corrupt souls. Still, Solomon Islands lacks
cohesive parties and there are prominent figures, Parliamentary
Speaker Keniloria for example, not completely identified with
either side but who may figure in the mix to hash out the new
government. Some fragments of the just dissolved coalition could
figure in the new group as well. For example, the lead defector
(Industry Minister Sogavare) headed a party of six members.
Rumor now has it that he may have been offered the PM's job to
effect his switch.

DON'T LET RAMSI BE MISUNDERSTOOD
5.(SBU) The Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands
restored order in July, 2003, and has since been working to
rebuild government institutions particularly the police. It is
Australian-led and largely perceived as an Australian entity
though there is a large New Zealand contingent with smaller
contributions from Pacific Island neighbors.

6.(C) RAMSI - and we - were largely caught by surprise with the
sudden outbreak of violence following a peaceful election which
was to have been an important milestone on the road to RAMSI's
success. Clearly, the ethnic tension has remained under the
surface of RAMSI-enforced law and order. Local institutions are
in no sense ready to cope with the forces that would tear the
government apart.

7.(C) RAMSI and the Solomon Island police, which are perceived
as under RAMSI control, acted throughout the past week to
enforce the law and restore order. However, many - and not just
in the now victorious opposition - argue that RAMSI actions
bolstered the previous order. Resident Americans told us that
RAMSI police were guarding assets owned by prominent Chinese
financiers while allowing the crowds to run riot amongst poorer
Chinese shop houses. Others, Speaker Keniloria, for example
argue that inappropriate RAMSI action fed the violence. (NOTE:
we understand, but do not buy either argument.)

8.(C) Therefore, opposition members will find some support for
charges that RAMSI took sides. After all, the initial
government success in naming the deputy speaker only became
possible after RAMSI detained and refused bail to two opposition
MPs. (NOTE: Both of whose actions we understand fully justified

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the step.)

DON'T GO OFF HALF-COCKED
9.(C) We therefore are concerned that the new government, when
it emerges will contain many who are cocky with their success
and have a real agenda of trimming RAMSI's authority. Thus
could jeopardize three years of careful work to rebuild Solomon
Islands into a nation with a viable government. We judge that
the Commissioner of Police, an Australian not formally
affiliated with RAMSI, might come under immediate pressure for
police actions during the violence.

U.S.G. CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE
10.(SBU) The Solomons population maintains an abiding respect
for the U.S. dating back to our effort in Guadalcanal in World
War II. Except for missionaries and a very popular Peace Corps
program (suspended since the ethnic violence),we have been
largely absent since. However, we are seen as impartial and
less self-interested than other powers.

11.(SBU) RAMSI marks a major long-term commitment by Australia
toward regional stability. Even before recent events, Prime
Minister Howard spoke of a term of at least ten years.

12.(C) Embassy therefore proposes that a senior U.S. official
make a statement designed to reinforce the population's support
for RAMSI assistance and to urge them to keep their eye on the
ball. The issue is to rebuild government institutions for
long-term stability rather than the politics of the moment. To
have an impact, the statement would have to be prominent enough
to get into the local press. The general population has no
access to the world press. A statement would be most effective
if it became public before new nominations for Prime Minister,
scheduled for May 1.

13.(C) SUGGESTED POINTS:
The U.S. is concerned by the civil disturbances which have
shattered recent harmony and may bring about economic hardship
for Solomon Islands citizens.

However, we are happy to note that, despite deep political
divisions, each step in the past week has been taken according
to the constitution. We congratulate the Solomon Islands people
and leaders for that.

We welcome the assistance to Solomon Islands authorities
provided by her neighbors working through RAMSI.

We reaffirm our support for Solomon Islands to work with RAMSI
to build sustainable peace so as to foster economic growth and
good governance.

Nation building is never an easy process. It takes time and
there will be setbacks. But we have a strong commitment to help
countries in transition, such as Solomon Islands.
FITTS